Alcoa Corp
AAAluminio · integrado alúmina+metalactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $3.19B | n/d | $598.0M | 2026-04-30 | 0001193125-26-197447 |
| 2025Q4 | $3.45B | n/d | $508.0M | 2026-02-26 | 0001193125-26-077167 |
| 2025Q3 | $3.00B | n/d | $222.0M | 2025-10-28 | 0001193125-25-253570 |
| 2025Q2 | $3.02B | n/d | $284.0M | 2025-07-31 | 0000950170-25-100979 |
| 2025Q1 | $3.37B | n/d | $860.0M | 2025-05-01 | 0000950170-25-061867 |
| 2024Q4 | $3.49B | n/d | $692.0M | 2025-02-20 | 0000950170-25-024242 |
| 2024Q3 | $2.90B | n/d | $445.0M | 2024-10-31 | 0000950170-24-119557 |
| 2024Q2 | $2.91B | n/d | $304.0M | 2024-08-02 | 0000950170-24-090092 |
| 2024Q1 | $2.60B | n/d | $135.0M | 2024-05-02 | 0000950170-24-052174 |
| 2023Q4 | $2.60B | n/d | $106.0M | 2024-02-21 | 0000950170-24-018069 |
| 2023Q3 | $2.60B | n/d | $77.0M | 2023-10-26 | 0000950170-23-055630 |
| 2023Q2 | $2.68B | n/d | $117.0M | 2023-07-27 | 0000950170-23-035168 |
| 2023Q1 | $2.67B | n/d | $212.0M | 2023-05-04 | 0000950170-23-017900 |
| 2022Q4 | $2.66B | n/d | $3.0M | 2023-02-23 | 0001564590-23-002319 |
| 2022Q3 | $2.85B | n/d | $139.0M | 2022-10-27 | 0001564590-22-035456 |
| 2022Q2 | $3.64B | n/d | $825.0M | 2022-07-25 | 0001564590-22-026349 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — aluminum 11.7% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| aluminum primaria (a priori) | 81% | 36 | 0.0002 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 2105 | “Third-party alumina shipments (kmt) 2,105 2,289 2,105 2,397” | auditado ✓ |
| 2017Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 9220 | “Third-party shipments (kmt) 9,220 9,071 10,755” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q4 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 343 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 343 $ 455 $ 340” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 381 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 376 $ 467 $ 381 $ 425” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 575 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 575 $ 636 $ 575 $ 372” | auditado ✓ |
| 2017Q4 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 340 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 340 $ 253 $ 311” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 9005 | “Third-party alumina shipments (kmt) 9,005 8,698” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q3 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 2448 | “Produced alumina shipments (kmt) 2,448” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q2 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 20 | “Higher average realized price of aluminum and alumina” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 378 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 378 $ 575 $ 475 $ 385” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 274 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 274 $ 324 $ 274 $ 361” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q3 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 377 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 377” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 13545 | “Total shipments (kmt) 13,545 13,585 13,695” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q3 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 10100 | “Total shipments(kmt) 3,430 3,316 10,100 10,105” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q3 | shipments_kmt | 10900 | “Total shipments (mdmt) 10.9 10.6 32.4 35.9” | rechazado |
| 2018Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 13585 | “Total shipments(1) (kmt) 13,585 13,695 13,774” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 6670 | “Total shipments(1) (kmt) 3,369 3,316 6,670 6,789” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q3 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 12759 | “The Alumina segment had base capacity of 12,759 kmt with 214 kmt of curtailed refining capacity.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 324 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 324 $ 341 $ 324 $ 575” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q2 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 282 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 282 $ 308 $ 295 $ 274” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 1611 | “Third-party alumina shipments (kmt) 1,611 2,324 1,611 2,105” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 1800 | “Lower average realized prices of aluminum” | rechazado |
| 2023Q1 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 28.9 | “higher average realized prices of alumina, higher other income primarily due to favorable mark-to-market results on derivative instruments in the current quarter, lower restructuring charges primarily” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 472 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 472 $ 358” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q1 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 19 | “Average cost per dry metric ton of bauxite $ 19 $ 19 $ 19 $ 20” | rechazado |
| 2018Q1 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 385 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 385 $ 325” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q1 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 3573 | “Total shipments (kmt) 3,573 3,358” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q3 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 1200 | “Lower shipments of aluminum and alumina” | rechazado |
| 2018Q3 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 6894 | “Third-party shipments (kmt) 2,233 2,271 6,894 6,914” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 1200 | “Higher shipments of alumina” | rechazado |
| 2024Q2 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 151 | “Higher average realized price of alumina” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 2415 | “Third-party shipments (kmt) 2,415 2,299 4,780 4,628” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 2365 | “Third-party shipments of alumina (kmt) 2,365 2,329” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q3 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 330 | “Higher average realized price of alumina” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 8829 | “Third-party alumina shipments (kmt) 8,829 9,005” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q2 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 425 | “Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 467 $ 314 $ 425 $ 319” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q2 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 3491 | “Total shipments (kmt) 3,491 3,573 7,064 6,842” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q2 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 0 | “Alumina production increased 1% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2022 due to increased production at certain of the Australian refineries, partially offset by decreased p” | rechazado |
| 2020Q3 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 10526 | “Total shipments (kmt) 3,684 3,430 10,526 10,100” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 299 | “Average realized price per metric ton of alumina $ 299 $ 385” | auditado ✓ |
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt (MD&A verificado) vs aluminum — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
24 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-26, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.
- The aluminum industry and aluminum end-use markets are highly cyclical and are influenced by several factors, including global economic conditions, the Chinese market, and overall consumer confidence.
- We have in the past and could in the future be materially adversely affected by volatility and declines in aluminum and alumina demand and prices, including global, regional, and product-specific prices, or by significant changes in production costs which are linked to LME or other commodities.
- Market-driven balancing of global aluminum supply and demand may be disrupted by non-market forces.
- Our participation in increasingly competitive and complex global markets exposes us to risks, including legal and regulatory risks and changes in conditions beyond our control, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
- We have in the past been and may in the future be unable to obtain, maintain, or renew permits or approvals necessary for our mining operations, which could materially adversely affect our operations and profitability.
- Our operations and profitability have in the past and could in the future be impacted by rising energy costs and interruptions or uncertainty in energy supplies.
- Our operations and profitability have been and could continue to be adversely affected by unfavorable changes in the cost, quality, or availability of raw materials or other key inputs, or by disruptions in the supply chain.
- Our global operations expose us to risks related to economic, political, and social conditions, including the impact of trade policies, tariffs, and adverse industry publicity, which may negatively impact our business and our ability to operate in certain locations.
- We may be exposed to significant legal proceedings, investigations, or changes in foreign and/or U.S. federal, state, or local laws, regulations, or policies.
- Changes in tax laws or exposure to additional tax liabilities could affect our future profitability.
- Climate change, climate change legislation or regulations, and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and build operational resilience to extreme weather conditions may adversely impact our operations and markets.
- Our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected by disruptions in the global economy caused by ongoing regional conflicts.
- We are exposed to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates, as well as inflation and other economic factors in the countries in which we operate.
- We face significant competition globally within and beyond the aluminum industry, which may have an adverse effect on profitability.
- We may not achieve our strategies or expectations relating to environmental, social, and governance considerations, which could expose us to potential liabilities, increased costs, reputational harm, and other adverse effects on our business.
- We are subject to a broad range of health, safety, and environmental laws, regulations, and other requirements in the jurisdictions in which we operate that may expose us to substantial claims, costs, and liabilities.
- Our operations include impoundment structures, which could impact the environment or cause exposure to hazardous substances or other damage, which could result in material liabilities to us.
- The secondary listing of the Alcoa common stock on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) via CDIs could lead to price variations and other impacts on the price of Alcoa common stock.
- We may not be able to obtain or maintain adequate insurance coverage.
- nuevoSafety Performance and Operational Excellence
- nuevoSignificant declines in the market value of our marketable securities may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations should they occur.
- Our business and growth prospects may be negatively impacted by limits on our ability to fund capital expenditures.
- Deterioration in our credit profile or increases in interest rates could increase our costs of borrowing money and limit our access to the capital markets and commercial credit.
- Union or workforce disputes or arrangements and other employee relations issues, as well as labor market conditions, could adversely affect our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001193125-26-077167