Alcoa Corp

AAAluminio · integrado alúmina+metalactualizado 2026-07-28
Precio
$44.36
IV prob-weighted
$27.75
Gap
-38%
TTM EBITDA≈
$1.61B
Net debt
$1.09B
Margen (percentil hist.)
n/d
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 2.61–8.63× EV/EBITDA (mediana 4.61×, 1941 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
driversLa pata aluminum anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 81% (n=36, p=0.0002): señal operativa utilizable. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-05): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+11.7% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
realizedPrecio realizado (avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt) vs spot: corr niveles 0.099, Δ 0.092, captura β 1.693 (n=22): DESACOPLADO del spot de referencia — la cadena mercado→P&L pasa por otro mercado o por contratos. [realized_model.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +503 bps alineados a 20d (hit 53%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -38%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia57/60 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (30 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
riesgosLa empresa declara 24 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-26, 2 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20. Concentracion: operacional 12, coste insumos 7, regulatorio 7. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$3.19Bn/d$598.0M2026-04-300001193125-26-197447
2025Q4$3.45Bn/d$508.0M2026-02-260001193125-26-077167
2025Q3$3.00Bn/d$222.0M2025-10-280001193125-25-253570
2025Q2$3.02Bn/d$284.0M2025-07-310000950170-25-100979
2025Q1$3.37Bn/d$860.0M2025-05-010000950170-25-061867
2024Q4$3.49Bn/d$692.0M2025-02-200000950170-25-024242
2024Q3$2.90Bn/d$445.0M2024-10-310000950170-24-119557
2024Q2$2.91Bn/d$304.0M2024-08-020000950170-24-090092
2024Q1$2.60Bn/d$135.0M2024-05-020000950170-24-052174
2023Q4$2.60Bn/d$106.0M2024-02-210000950170-24-018069
2023Q3$2.60Bn/d$77.0M2023-10-260000950170-23-055630
2023Q2$2.68Bn/d$117.0M2023-07-270000950170-23-035168
2023Q1$2.67Bn/d$212.0M2023-05-040000950170-23-017900
2022Q4$2.66Bn/d$3.0M2023-02-230001564590-23-002319
2022Q3$2.85Bn/d$139.0M2022-10-270001564590-22-035456
2022Q2$3.64Bn/d$825.0M2022-07-250001564590-22-026349

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — aluminum 11.7% QTD · a 2026-08-05

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
aluminum primaria (a priori)81%360.0002

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)

Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)

TrimestreMétricaValorCita textualEstado
2025Q1alumina_shipments_kmt2105“Third-party alumina shipments (kmt) 2,105 2,289 2,105 2,397”auditado ✓
2017Q4alumina_shipments_kmt9220“Third-party shipments (kmt) 9,220 9,071 10,755”auditado ✓
2019Q4avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt343“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 343 $ 455 $ 340”auditado ✓
2019Q2avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt381“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 376 $ 467 $ 381 $ 425”auditado ✓
2025Q1avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt575“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 575 $ 636 $ 575 $ 372”auditado ✓
2017Q4avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt340“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 340 $ 253 $ 311”auditado ✓
2024Q4alumina_shipments_kmt9005“Third-party alumina shipments (kmt) 9,005 8,698”auditado ✓
2025Q3alumina_shipments_kmt2448“Produced alumina shipments (kmt) 2,448”auditado ✓
2024Q2avg_realized_price_usd_mt20“Higher average realized price of aluminum and alumina”rechazado
2025Q2avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt378“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 378 $ 575 $ 475 $ 385”auditado ✓
2020Q3avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt274“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 274 $ 324 $ 274 $ 361”auditado ✓
2025Q3avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt377“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 377”auditado ✓
2019Q4alumina_shipments_kmt13545“Total shipments (kmt) 13,545 13,585 13,695”auditado ✓
2019Q3alumina_shipments_kmt10100“Total shipments(kmt) 3,430 3,316 10,100 10,105”auditado ✓
2022Q3shipments_kmt10900“Total shipments (mdmt) 10.9 10.6 32.4 35.9”rechazado
2018Q4alumina_shipments_kmt13585“Total shipments(1) (kmt) 13,585 13,695 13,774”auditado ✓
2019Q2alumina_shipments_kmt6670“Total shipments(1) (kmt) 3,369 3,316 6,670 6,789”auditado ✓
2021Q3alumina_shipments_kmt12759“The Alumina segment had base capacity of 12,759 kmt with 214 kmt of curtailed refining capacity.”rechazado
2026Q1avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt324“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 324 $ 341 $ 324 $ 575”auditado ✓
2021Q2avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt282“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 282 $ 308 $ 295 $ 274”auditado ✓
2026Q1alumina_shipments_kmt1611“Third-party alumina shipments (kmt) 1,611 2,324 1,611 2,105”auditado ✓
2024Q1avg_realized_price_usd_mt1800“Lower average realized prices of aluminum”rechazado
2023Q1avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt28.9“higher average realized prices of alumina, higher other income primarily due to favorable mark-to-market results on derivative instruments in the current quarter, lower restructuring charges primarily”rechazado
2024Q4avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt472“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 472 $ 358”auditado ✓
2022Q1avg_realized_price_usd_mt19“Average cost per dry metric ton of bauxite $ 19 $ 19 $ 19 $ 20”rechazado
2018Q1avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt385“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 385 $ 325”auditado ✓
2021Q1alumina_shipments_kmt3573“Total shipments (kmt) 3,573 3,358”auditado ✓
2024Q3alumina_shipments_kmt1200“Lower shipments of aluminum and alumina”rechazado
2018Q3alumina_shipments_kmt6894“Third-party shipments (kmt) 2,233 2,271 6,894 6,914”auditado ✓
2024Q1alumina_shipments_kmt1200“Higher shipments of alumina”rechazado
2024Q2avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt151“Higher average realized price of alumina”rechazado
2020Q2alumina_shipments_kmt2415“Third-party shipments (kmt) 2,415 2,299 4,780 4,628”auditado ✓
2020Q1alumina_shipments_kmt2365“Third-party shipments of alumina (kmt) 2,365 2,329”auditado ✓
2024Q3avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt330“Higher average realized price of alumina”rechazado
2025Q4alumina_shipments_kmt8829“Third-party alumina shipments (kmt) 8,829 9,005”auditado ✓
2018Q2avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt425“Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina $ 467 $ 314 $ 425 $ 319”auditado ✓
2021Q2alumina_shipments_kmt3491“Total shipments (kmt) 3,491 3,573 7,064 6,842”auditado ✓
2022Q2alumina_shipments_kmt0“Alumina production increased 1% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2022 due to increased production at certain of the Australian refineries, partially offset by decreased p”rechazado
2020Q3alumina_shipments_kmt10526“Total shipments (kmt) 3,684 3,430 10,526 10,100”auditado ✓
2020Q1avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt299“Average realized price per metric ton of alumina $ 299 $ 385”auditado ✓

Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)

avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt (MD&A verificado) vs aluminum — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado

Corr. niveles
0.10
Corr. Δ trimestral
0.09
β captura Δ%spot→Δ%real
1.69
n pares
22

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+41 bps
hit 42% · n=36
5d tras filing
-97 bps
hit 36% · n=36
20d tras filing
+503 bps
hit 53% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

24 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-26, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.

operacional 12coste insumos 7regulatorio 7demanda competencia 4precio commodity 3geopolitico 3financiero 3clima agua 1laboral 1
  • The aluminum industry and aluminum end-use markets are highly cyclical and are influenced by several factors, including global economic conditions, the Chinese market, and overall consumer confidence.
  • We have in the past and could in the future be materially adversely affected by volatility and declines in aluminum and alumina demand and prices, including global, regional, and product-specific prices, or by significant changes in production costs which are linked to LME or other commodities.
  • Market-driven balancing of global aluminum supply and demand may be disrupted by non-market forces.
  • Our participation in increasingly competitive and complex global markets exposes us to risks, including legal and regulatory risks and changes in conditions beyond our control, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • We have in the past been and may in the future be unable to obtain, maintain, or renew permits or approvals necessary for our mining operations, which could materially adversely affect our operations and profitability.
  • Our operations and profitability have in the past and could in the future be impacted by rising energy costs and interruptions or uncertainty in energy supplies.
  • Our operations and profitability have been and could continue to be adversely affected by unfavorable changes in the cost, quality, or availability of raw materials or other key inputs, or by disruptions in the supply chain.
  • Our global operations expose us to risks related to economic, political, and social conditions, including the impact of trade policies, tariffs, and adverse industry publicity, which may negatively impact our business and our ability to operate in certain locations.
  • We may be exposed to significant legal proceedings, investigations, or changes in foreign and/or U.S. federal, state, or local laws, regulations, or policies.
  • Changes in tax laws or exposure to additional tax liabilities could affect our future profitability.
  • Climate change, climate change legislation or regulations, and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and build operational resilience to extreme weather conditions may adversely impact our operations and markets.
  • Our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected by disruptions in the global economy caused by ongoing regional conflicts.
  • We are exposed to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates, as well as inflation and other economic factors in the countries in which we operate.
  • We face significant competition globally within and beyond the aluminum industry, which may have an adverse effect on profitability.
  • We may not achieve our strategies or expectations relating to environmental, social, and governance considerations, which could expose us to potential liabilities, increased costs, reputational harm, and other adverse effects on our business.
  • We are subject to a broad range of health, safety, and environmental laws, regulations, and other requirements in the jurisdictions in which we operate that may expose us to substantial claims, costs, and liabilities.
  • Our operations include impoundment structures, which could impact the environment or cause exposure to hazardous substances or other damage, which could result in material liabilities to us.
  • The secondary listing of the Alcoa common stock on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) via CDIs could lead to price variations and other impacts on the price of Alcoa common stock.
  • We may not be able to obtain or maintain adequate insurance coverage.
  • nuevoSafety Performance and Operational Excellence
  • nuevoSignificant declines in the market value of our marketable securities may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations should they occur.
  • Our business and growth prospects may be negatively impacted by limits on our ability to fund capital expenditures.
  • Deterioration in our credit profile or increases in interest rates could increase our costs of borrowing money and limit our access to the capital markets and commercial credit.
  • Union or workforce disputes or arrangements and other employee relations issues, as well as labor market conditions, could adversely affect our business, financial condition, or results of operations.

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001193125-26-077167

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)