Portfolio Radar — cadenas de valor
48 empresas en 3 cadenas de valor · múltiplos EV/EBITDA empíricos por empresa (p25/p50/p75 de su propia historia, point-in-time) · ALTO con cockpit completo, resto con twin genérico.
⚠ El gap está INVERTIDO como señal en cíclicas (backtest ALTO: corr −0.32): gap alto sobre EBITDA TTM suele significar techo de ciclo, no oportunidad. Columna ordenada como contexto, no como ranking de compra.
Cadena Agro · 16 empresas
Etanol · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alto Ingredients ALTO specialty + fuel | $4.45 | $2.52 | -44% | 5.5× sector (piloto) | 83% n=24 | n/d | 33 | cockpit completo |
Procesamiento agricola · 4 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM originacion + crush | $78.06 | $46.51 | -40% | 11.7× empírico | 50% n=36 ▲ | 78% | 37 | twin genérico |
| Andersons, Inc. ANDE comercio + etanol | n/d | n/d | n/d | n/d default | 39% n=36 ▲ | 86% | 37 | parcial (sin IV) |
| Bunge Global SA BG crush global | $105.40 | $34.76 | -67% | 6.7× empírico | 50% n=12 ▲ | 47% | 17 | twin genérico |
| Ingredion Inc INGR ingredientes de maiz | $100.42 | $140.46 | 40% | 8.4× empírico | 54% n=35 ▲ | 59% | 37 | twin genérico |
Proteina animal · 4 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL-MAINE FOODS INC CALM huevos | $87.06 | $139.33 | 60% | 3.8× empírico | 32% n=37 | 13% | 38 | twin genérico |
| DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. DAR rendering y grasas | $59.76 | $33.13 | -45% | 10.0× empírico | 46% n=33 ▲ | 85% | 35 | twin genérico |
| PILGRIMS PRIDE CORP PPC pollo | $27.92 | $44.32 | 59% | 8.3× empírico | 65% n=37 | 26% | 38 | twin genérico |
| TYSON FOODS, INC. TSN pollo, vacuno y cerdo | $59.61 | $39.72 | -33% | 7.7× empírico | 57% n=37 | 24% | 38 | twin genérico |
Fertilizante nitrogenado · 3 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF amoniaco y urea | $118.30 | $131.79 | 11% | 5.9× empírico | 64% n=36 ▲ | 68% | 37 | twin genérico |
| LSB INDUSTRIES, INC. LXU quimica nitrogenada | $9.82 | $11.39 | 16% | 9.1× empírico | 65% n=37 | 32% | 38 | twin genérico |
| CVR PARTNERS, LP UAN UAN y amoniaco | $125.57 | $124.43 | -1% | 6.8× empírico | 73% n=37 | 87% | 38 | twin genérico |
Insumos agricolas · 2 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc. CTVA semilla y proteccion | $76.04 | $74.29 | -2% | 7.6× empírico | 73% n=33 | 97% | 34 | twin genérico |
| FMC CORP FMC proteccion de cultivos | $10.36 | $4.22 | -59% | 15.1× empírico | 51% n=37 | 32% | 38 | twin genérico |
Fosfato y potasa · 2 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intrepid Potash, Inc. IPI potasa | $33.29 | $68.27 | 105% | 13.7× empírico | 38% n=8 ▲ | 78% | 9 | twin genérico |
| MOSAIC CO MOS integrado fosfato+potasa | $21.81 | $16.49 | -24% | 6.7× empírico | 59% n=34 ▲ | 6% | 35 | twin genérico |
Cadena Metal · 17 empresas
Aluminio · 3 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcoa Corp AA integrado alúmina+metal | $44.36 | $27.75 | -38% | 4.6× empírico | 81% n=36 ▲ | n/d | 37 | twin genérico |
| CENTURY ALUMINUM CO CENX fundición primaria | $43.96 | $82.62 | 88% | 16.7× empírico | 72% n=36 ▲ | 97% | 37 | twin genérico |
| KAISER ALUMINUM CORP KALU semielaborados | $162.16 | $229.00 | 41% | 10.6× empírico | 51% n=37 | 53% | 38 | twin genérico |
Specialty metals · 3 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATI INC ATI aleaciones aero | $186.99 | $77.29 | -59% | 15.0× empírico | 58% n=36 ▲ | 95% | 44 | twin genérico |
| CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP CRS aceros especiales | $560.43 | $218.21 | -61% | 14.8× empírico | 56% n=36 ▲ | 97% | 37 | twin genérico |
| Metallus Inc. MTUS barra calidad | $21.11 | $11.57 | -45% | 6.0× empírico | 53% n=36 ▲ | 54% | 37 | twin genérico |
Acero integrado · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC. CLF BF-BOF + mineral propio | $11.98 | $0.00 | -100% | 6.9× empírico | 60% n=37 | 29% | 38 | twin genérico |
Acero EAF · 3 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMMERCIAL METALS Co CMC largos + reciclaje | $70.47 | $37.18 | -47% | 6.0× empírico | 62% n=37 | 66% | 38 | twin genérico |
| NUCOR CORP NUE mini-mill | $265.62 | $104.14 | -61% | 6.5× empírico | 56% n=36 ▲ | 54% | 37 | twin genérico |
| STEEL DYNAMICS INC STLD mini-mill + reciclaje | $259.74 | $81.27 | -69% | 5.6× empírico | 54% n=37 | 37% | 38 | twin genérico |
Cobre · 2 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC FCX minera | $61.64 | $46.64 | -24% | 7.2× empírico | 57% n=35 ▲ | 41% | 37 | twin genérico |
| SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/ SCCO minera | $178.96 | $133.82 | -25% | 12.6× empírico | 67% n=36 ▲ | 92% | 37 | twin genérico |
Chatarra · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radius Recycling, Inc. (ex Schnitzer Steel) RDUS reciclador | n/d | n/d | n/d | n/d default | 67% n=33 ▼ | 18% | 34 | parcial (sin IV) |
Distribución · 2 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RELIANCE, INC. RS service centers | $414.33 | $185.07 | -55% | 7.6× empírico | 64% n=36 ▲ | 94% | 37 | twin genérico |
| Ryerson Holding Corporation RYI service centers | n/d | n/d | n/d | n/d default | 47% n=36 ▲ | 57% | 37 | parcial (sin IV) |
PGM / Paladio · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (ADR) SBSW minera PGM (paladio/platino/rodio) + oro | $8.38 | $1.51 | -82% | 2.8× empírico | 100% n=6 ▲ | 14% | 7 | twin genérico |
Procesado · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worthington Steel, Inc. WS laminado plano | $38.13 | $35.55 | -7% | 6.8× empírico | 70% n=10 ▲ | 21% | 14 | twin genérico |
Cadena Tungsteno · 15 empresas
W: semiconductores · 3 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE AMAT exposición marginalequipos de deposición de tungsteno | $518.21 | $169.81 | -67% | 14.9× empírico | 47% n=36 ▲ | 97% | 38 | twin genérico |
| ENTEGRIS INC ENTG exposición marginalmateriales para semis (W en interconexiones) | $125.20 | $88.57 | -29% | 24.8× empírico | 56% n=36 ▲ | 86% | 37 | twin genérico |
| LAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX exposición marginalequipos de deposición de tungsteno | $294.61 | $30.92 | -90% | 2.1× empírico | 64% n=36 ▲ | 92% | 37 | twin genérico |
W: distribucion MRO · 3 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FASTENAL CO FAST exposición marginaldistribuidor industrial generalista | $48.11 | $21.74 | -55% | 10.8× empírico | 36% n=36 | 5% | 38 | twin genérico |
| W.W. GRAINGER, INC. GWW exposición marginaldistribuidor industrial generalista | $1371.25 | $967.79 | -29% | 16.1× empírico | 53% n=36 ▲ | 95% | 37 | twin genérico |
| MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC MSM exposición significativadistribuidor especializado en herramienta de corte | $124.91 | $77.06 | -38% | 10.4× empírico | 39% n=36 | 26% | 38 | twin genérico |
W: defensa · 2 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP GD exposición marginalmunición con penetradores de tungsteno | $382.43 | $314.28 | -18% | 14.4× empírico | 50% n=36 ▲ | 25% | 37 | twin genérico |
| TEXTRON INC TXT exposición marginalaeroestructuras y munición | $86.39 | $83.00 | -4% | 7.2× empírico | 61% n=18 ▲ | 53% | 36 | twin genérico |
W: perforacion · 3 empresas
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HALLIBURTON CO HAL exposición marginalservicios de perforación | $31.89 | $34.62 | 9% | 8.7× empírico | 41% n=37 | n/d | 38 | twin genérico |
| NOV Inc. NOV exposición significativabrocas e insertos de carburo | $19.48 | $20.57 | 6% | 9.7× empírico | 53% n=36 ▲ | 59% | 37 | twin genérico |
| SLB LIMITED/NV SLB exposición marginalservicios de perforación | n/d | n/d | n/d | n/d default | 57% n=28 ▼ | 60% | 37 | parcial (sin IV) |
W: maquina herramienta · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HURCO COMPANIES INC HURC exposición significativacentros de mecanizado (consumen herramienta de W) | $21.90 | $0.65 | -97% | 8.1× empírico | 54% n=37 ▲ | 32% | 38 | twin genérico |
W: carburo y herramienta · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENNAMETAL INC KMT exposición corecarburo cementado + herramienta de corte | $34.90 | $31.21 | -11% | 8.3× empírico | 36% n=31 ▲ | 84% | 37 | twin genérico |
W: consumibles industriales · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS INC LECO exposición marginalsoldadura: electrodos de tungsteno | $267.79 | $239.41 | -11% | 16.4× empírico | 57% n=37 | 89% | 38 | twin genérico |
W: materiales avanzados · 1 empresa
| Empresa | Precio | IV (PW) | Gap ⚠ | ×EBITDA base | Nowcast dir. | Margen pct hist. | Trimestres | Cobertura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MATERION Corp MTRN exposición significativatargets y aleaciones refractarias | $213.73 | $118.23 | -45% | 16.1× empírico | 50% n=36 ▲ | 3% | 37 | twin genérico |
Backtest de eventos de la cadena (señal sectorial pre-filing, long/short sin costes): 1d +9bps (t=0.96) · 5d -15bps (t=-0.87) · 20d +80bps (t=2.37) · sin alpha significativo — coherente con ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
RYI/RDUS: delistadas (solo fundamentales, sin IV). Extracción MD&A y tesis por empresa: en curso, priorizada por la fuerza de la señal sectorial.