Archer-Daniels-Midland Co
ADMProcesamiento agricola · originacion + crushactualizado 2026-08-03Precio
$78.06
IV prob-weighted
$46.51
Gap
-40%
TTM EBITDA≈
$2.50B
Net debt
$7.02B
Margen (percentil hist.)
78%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 9.9–12.93× EV/EBITDA (mediana 11.73×, 2125 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 19.9%, percentil 78% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata soy_crush anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 50% (n=36, p=0.566): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+9.7% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +94 bps alineados a 20d (hit 50%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -40%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 3% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 97% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.714: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 54%, OLS commodity 54%, OLS+coste 54%, signo+coste 67%. Gana signo+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 27 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-17, 16 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20. Concentracion: operacional 8, financiero 8, regulatorio 6. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $6.14B | 19.9% | $554.0M | 2026-05-05 | 0000007084-26-000023 |
| 2025Q4 | $6.05B | 20.0% | $627.0M | 2026-02-17 | 0000007084-26-000011 |
| 2025Q3 | $6.42B | 19.8% | $631.0M | 2025-11-04 | 0000007084-25-000052 |
| 2025Q2 | $6.34B | 21.6% | $687.0M | 2025-08-05 | 0000007084-25-000042 |
| 2025Q1 | $6.15B | 19.2% | $535.0M | 2025-05-06 | 0000007084-25-000022 |
| 2024Q4 | $6.28B | 21.6% | $702.0M | 2025-02-20 | 0000007084-25-000011 |
| 2024Q3 | $5.99B | 22.8% | $681.0M | 2024-11-18 | 0000007084-24-000054 |
| 2024Q2 | $6.16B | 22.7% | $707.0M | 2024-07-30 | 0000007084-24-000026 |
| 2024Q1 | $5.95B | 27.9% | $988.0M | 2024-04-30 | 0000007084-24-000017 |
| 2023Q4 | $22.98B | 7.6% | $1.10B | 2024-03-12 | 0000007084-24-000009 |
| 2023Q3 | $6.40B | 28.3% | $1.26B | 2023-10-24 | 0000007084-23-000039 |
| 2023Q2 | $25.19B | 7.5% | $1.30B | 2023-07-25 | 0000007084-23-000028 |
| 2023Q1 | $24.07B | 8.6% | $1.46B | 2023-04-25 | 0000007084-23-000017 |
| 2022Q4 | $25.94B | 6.8% | $1.12B | 2024-03-12 | 0000007084-24-000009 |
| 2022Q3 | $24.68B | 7.3% | $1.25B | 2022-10-25 | 0000007084-22-000029 |
| 2022Q2 | $27.28B | 7.7% | $1.54B | 2022-07-26 | 0000007084-22-000023 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — soy_crush 9.7% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| soy_crush primaria (a priori) | 50% | 36 | 0.566 |
| corn | 33% | 36 | 0.9856 |
| soybean | 56% | 36 | 0.3089 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica soy_crush y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
R² del commodity
3%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
97%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.71
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 54% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 54% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 54% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 67% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
-52 bps
hit 36% · n=36
5d tras filing
-51 bps
hit 47% · n=36
20d tras filing
+94 bps
hit 50% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
27 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-17, verbatim del documento. 16 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.
operacional 8financiero 8regulatorio 6precio commodity 3coste insumos 3geopolitico 2demanda competencia 1ciberseguridad 1
- nuevoThe Company is exposed to potential business disruption risks which could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and could result in increased expenses and liabilities.
- Transportation, inflationary impacts, and fluctuations in energy prices could affect the Company’s operating results.
- Human capital availability may not be sufficient to effectively support global operations.
- The Company may fail to realize the benefits of or experience delays in the execution of its strategic priorities.
- nuevoSelling, general, and administrative expenses
- nuevoThe Company has limited control over, may not realize the expected benefits of, and may be required to write down, its equity investments and joint ventures, and may not be able to monetize the investments at an attractive value when the Company decides to exit the investments.
- Note 8. Investments in and Advances to Affiliates
- The Company faces risks related to health epidemics, pandemics, and similar outbreaks.
- The Company faces risks related to international conflicts, acts of terrorism, war, other geopolitical events, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, maritime piracy, and other economic disruptions.
- nuevoGeopolitical risks could disrupt global markets and negatively impact the Company’s business and financial results.
- nuevoThe Company is subject to a wide range of food safety and quality, manufacturing and labeling, occupational health and safety, environmental, and other regulatory requirements which may expose the Company to certain regulatory or reputational risks.
- nuevoThe Company is subject to various evolving regulations related to ESG matters which impacts the Company’s business and strategies, and could adversely affect its reputation, business and results of operations.
- nuevoThe Company’s goals and stakeholder expectations relating to ESG-related matters and sustainable practices may expose the Company to increased costs, reputational harm and other risks.
- Limitations on access to external financing could adversely affect the Company’s operating results due to its capital-intensive nature.
- Agricultural commodities, agricultural commodity products, and non-agricultural commodity raw materials the Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises can be affected by various factors beyond the Company’s control.
- nuevoThe Company is subject to risks relating to global and regional economic downturns, which could adversely affect the Company’s operating results.
- The Company has significant competition in the markets in which it operates and is subject to industry-specific risks which could adversely affect the Company’s operating results.
- The Company’s risk management strategies may not be effective.
- The Company is subject to numerous laws, regulations, and mandates globally which could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and forward strategy.
- nuevoRisks relating to regulations specifically affecting the agricultural sector and related industries, as well as those that affect the Company’s other business and practices, could adversely affect the Company’s business, reputation and operating results.
- nuevoChanges in tax laws or exposure to additional tax liabilities could have a material impact on the Company’s financial condition and results of operations.
- nuevosystems could have a material and adverse effect on the Company’s business, financial condition, and operational results
- nuevoInformation and operational technology systems are subject to interruptions or failures which may affect the Company’s ability to conduct its business.
- nuevoThe Company’s systems, processes, and sites are subject to cybersecurity and other incidents, which could expose the Company to operational and various regulatory risks.
- nuevoThe Company is subject to various technical, legal, and opportunistic-related risks relating to use of artificial intelligence and other emerging digital technologies.
… 2 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000007084-26-000011
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)