APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE
AMATW: semiconductores · equipos de deposición de tungstenoactualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 610.000 | 610.000–610.000 | 5 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 600.000–660.000 | 88 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 73 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 64 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.340.000–1.430.000 | 77 |
| 2026-03 | 1.490.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 70 |
| 2026-02 | 995.000 | 920.000–1.033.300 | 58 |
| 2026-01 | 751.071 | 710.000–795.000 | 84 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–630.000 | 93 |
| 2025-11 | 472.000 | 460.000–484.000 | 75 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 79 |
| 2025-09 | 403.400 | 398.000–410.000 | 78 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
7 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $7.91B | 49.9% | $2.66B | 2026-05-21 | 0001628280-26-037227 |
| 2026Q1 | $7.01B | 49.0% | $1.96B | 2026-02-19 | 0001628280-26-009694 |
| 2025Q4 | $6.80B | 48.0% | $1.83B | 2025-12-12 | 0001628280-25-056742 |
| 2025Q3 | $7.30B | 48.8% | $2.35B | 2025-08-21 | 0000006951-25-000037 |
| 2025Q2 | $7.10B | 49.1% | $2.27B | 2025-05-22 | 0000006951-25-000024 |
| 2025Q1 | $7.17B | 48.8% | $2.28B | 2025-02-20 | 0000006951-25-000011 |
| 2024Q4 | $7.04B | 47.3% | $2.16B | 2024-12-13 | 0000006951-24-000044 |
| 2024Q3 | $6.78B | 47.3% | $2.04B | 2024-08-22 | 0000006951-24-000032 |
| 2024Q2 | $6.65B | 47.4% | n/d | 2024-05-23 | 0000006951-24-000022 |
| 2024Q1 | $6.71B | 47.8% | $2.06B | 2024-02-27 | 0000006951-24-000012 |
| 2023Q4 | $6.72B | 47.1% | $2.10B | 2023-12-15 | 0000006951-23-000041 |
| 2023Q3 | $6.42B | 46.3% | $1.94B | 2023-08-24 | 0000006951-23-000031 |
| 2023Q2 | $6.63B | 46.7% | n/d | 2023-05-26 | 0000006951-23-000022 |
| 2023Q1 | $6.74B | 46.7% | $2.09B | 2023-02-23 | 0000006951-23-000012 |
| 2022Q4 | $6.75B | 46.0% | $2.12B | 2022-12-16 | 0000006951-22-000043 |
| 2022Q3 | $6.52B | 46.1% | $2.03B | 2022-08-25 | 0000006951-22-000032 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q2): margen ▲ sube — semis_ip 3.4% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| semis_ip primaria (a priori) | 47% | 36 | 0.6911 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
26 factores del 10-K de 2025-12-12, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2024-12-13.
- The industries we serve can be volatile and difficult to predict.
- We are exposed to risks associated with an uncertain global economy.
- We are exposed to the risks of operating a global business.
- nuevoWe are exposed to risks and uncertainty related to changes in trade policies, and increased tariffs and trade disputes.
- We are exposed to risks associated with a highly concentrated customer base.
- Supply chain disruptions, manufacturing interruptions or delays, or the failure to accurately forecast customer demand, could affect our ability to meet customer demand, lead to higher costs, or result in excess or obsolete inventory.
- We are exposed to various factors that impact the industries in which we operate, including factors specific to the semiconductor industry.
- The industries in which we operate are highly competitive and subject to rapid technological and market changes.
- We are exposed to risks related to government incentives and other agreements that may involve government entities.
- We are exposed to factors specific to the display industry.
- We are exposed to risks associated with expanding into new and related markets and industries.
- nuevoWe are exposed to risks related to the use of AI by us and our competitors.
- We are exposed to risks related to protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights.
- We are exposed to cybersecurity threats and incidents.
- We are exposed to risks associated with business combinations, acquisitions, strategic investments and divestitures.
- The ability to attract, retain and motivate key employees is vital to our success.
- We operate in jurisdictions with complex and changing tax laws.
- Our indebtedness and debt covenants could adversely affect our financial condition and business.
- Our business depends on the successful implementation and proper functioning of information systems we use.
- We may incur impairment charges related to goodwill or long-lived assets.
- We may not continue to declare cash dividends or repurchase our shares.
- We are exposed to risks related to legal proceedings, claims and investigations.”
- We are exposed to risks related to the global regulatory environment.
- Implementation and reporting on our sustainability strategies and targets could result in additional costs, and our inability to achieve them could have an adverse impact on our reputation and performance.
- We are subject to risks associated with environmental, health and safety regulations.
… 1 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001628280-25-056742