Andersons, Inc.

ANDEProcesamiento agricola · comercio + etanol
Valoración diaria: sin datos
El twin genérico no pudo calcular la serie (columnas EBITDA/deuda/acciones incompletas en XBRL — ver twin_manifest.json).
se necesita: diagnóstico de tags específicos del filer (misma clase de trabajo que NUE: subtotales ausentes)
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

6 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

cicloMargen bruto actual 42.4%, percentil 86% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata soy_crush anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 39% (n=36, p=0.9338): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+9.7% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 0% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 100% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.417: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 33%, OLS commodity 33%, OLS+coste 46%, signo+coste 46%. Gana OLS+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 22 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-18, 2 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-19. Concentracion: operacional 9, financiero 7, regulatorio 5. [risk_factors.json]

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$378.9M42.4%n/d2026-05-060000821026-26-000070
2025Q4$329.5M70.3%n/d2026-02-180000821026-26-000010
2025Q3$295.8M57.8%n/d2025-11-050000821026-25-000204
2025Q2$535.0M29.6%n/d2025-08-050000821026-25-000150
2025Q1$370.8M41.2%n/d2025-05-070000821026-25-000112
2024Q4$337.5M63.1%n/d2026-02-180000821026-26-000010
2024Q3$231.9M76.4%n/d2025-11-050000821026-25-000204
2024Q2$492.5M35.6%n/d2025-08-050000821026-25-000150
2024Q1$341.4M37.6%n/d2024-05-080000821026-24-000141
2023Q4$-770.2M-28.3%n/d2024-02-210000821026-24-000071
2023Q3$688.1M22.9%n/d2023-11-080000821026-23-000218
2023Q2$975.3M22.8%n/d2023-08-030000821026-23-000178
2023Q1$739.0M20.0%n/d2023-05-040000821026-23-000123
2022Q4$767.5M22.1%n/d2023-02-230000821026-23-000068
2022Q3$635.4M25.8%n/d2022-11-030000821026-22-000243
2022Q2$956.0M24.1%n/d2022-08-080000821026-22-000215

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube soy_crush 9.7% QTD · a 2026-08-04

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
soy_crush primaria (a priori)39%360.9338
corn44%360.7975
soybean50%360.566

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica soy_crush y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres

R² del commodity
1%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
100%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.42
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)33%24
OLS sobre el commodity33%24
OLS + momentum de coste mejor46%24
Signo + momentum de coste mejor46%24

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

22 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-18, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-19.

operacional 9financiero 7regulatorio 5precio commodity 4coste insumos 3clima agua 3demanda competencia 2geopolitico 2ciberseguridad 2laboral 1
  • Our business is affected by the supply and demand of commodities and is sensitive to factors outside of our control. Adverse price movements could negatively affect our profitability and results of operations.
  • Some of our business segments operate in highly regulated industries. Changes in government regulations or trade association policies could adversely affect our results of operations.
  • nuevoThe Company is subject to uncertainty regarding eligibility and monetization of Section 45Z Tax Credits
  • We are required to carry significant amounts of inventory across all our businesses. If a substantial portion of our inventory becomes damaged or obsolete, its value would decrease, and have an adverse impact on the Company's financial results.
  • Our indebtedness could negatively affect our financial condition, decrease our liquidity and impair our ability to operate the business.
  • We face significant competition and pricing pressure from other companies in our industries. If we are unable to compete effectively with these companies, our sales and profit margins would decrease, and our earnings and cash flows would be adversely affected.
  • nuevoOur Agribusiness and Renewables businesses use derivative contracts to reduce the impact of volatility in the commodity markets. Non-performance by the counterparties to those contracts could adversely affect our future results of operations and financial position.
  • We face exposure to country risk in countries that face financial, political, and economic unrest through unsecured credit, inventory, forward contract risk or payment origination that could adversely affect our future results of operations, financial position, and cash flows.
  • Our business involves considerable safety risks. Significant unexpected costs and liabilities would have an adverse effect on our profitability and overall financial position.
  • Adverse weather conditions, including as a result of climate change, may adversely affect the availability, quality and price of agricultural commodities and agricultural commodity products, as well as our operations and operating results.
  • The Company faces risks related to international conflicts, acts of terrorism and wars that may adversely impact the Company's financial condition or results of operations.
  • We rely on a limited number of suppliers for certain of our raw materials and other products and the loss of one or several of these suppliers could increase our costs and have a material adverse effect on any one of our business segments.
  • We are subject to global and regional economic downturns and related risks including health epidemics, pandemics and similar outbreaks.
  • The Company may not be able to effectively integrate businesses it acquires.
  • If our goodwill, amortizable intangible assets and long-lived assets become impaired, then we could be required to record a significant charge to earnings.
  • Our business depends on our ability to successfully manage productivity improvements and ongoing organizational change, including our ability to attract and retain talented employees.
  • Compliance with evolving regulations regarding disclosure of emissions and metrics and/or climate change may impact our reputation, increase our operating costs, and reduce the value of our assets and products.
  • The Company faces transition risks and physical risks related to climate change and electrification.
  • The Company's information technology systems may impose limitations or failures which may affect the Company's ability to conduct its business.
  • We are at risk of cyber-incidents or other security breaches that could undermine our ability to operate effectively.
  • A change in tax laws or regulations of any federal, state or international jurisdiction in which we operate could increase our tax burden and otherwise adversely affect our financial position, results of operations, cash flows and liquidity.
  • We are subject to various legal and regulatory proceedings, including litigation in the ordinary course of business, and uninsured judgments or a rise in insurance premiums may adversely impact our business, financial condition and results of operations.

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000821026-26-000010

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)