ATI INC
ATISpecialty metals · aleaciones aeroactualizado 2026-07-28Precio
$186.99
IV prob-weighted
$77.29
Gap
-59%
TTM EBITDA≈
$830.1M
Net debt
$1.39B
Margen (percentil hist.)
95%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 11.23–16.95× EV/EBITDA (mediana 14.97×, 1670 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 22.8%, percentil 95% de su historia (40 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata nickel anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 58% (n=36, p=0.2025): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+4.4% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +99 bps alineados a 20d (hit 40%, n=43), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -59%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia12/24 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (9 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 7% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 93% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.168: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 67%, OLS commodity 50%, OLS+coste 46%, signo+coste 50%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 23 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-20, 5 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-21. Concentracion: geopolitico 3, precio commodity 2, operacional 2. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 44)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $1.15B | 22.8% | $208.8M | 2026-04-30 | 0001628280-26-028684 |
| 2025Q4 | $1.18B | 23.2% | $213.7M | 2026-02-20 | 0001628280-26-010140 |
| 2025Q3 | $1.13B | 22.7% | $205.0M | 2025-10-28 | 0001628280-25-046675 |
| 2025Q2 | $1.14B | 21.3% | $202.6M | 2025-07-31 | 0001628280-25-036963 |
| 2025Q1 | $1.14B | 20.6% | $187.7M | 2025-05-01 | 0001628280-25-021463 |
| 2024Q4 | $1.17B | 21.2% | $248.0M | 2025-02-21 | 0001628280-25-007092 |
| 2024Q3 | $1.05B | 21.4% | $180.7M | 2024-10-29 | 0001628280-24-044066 |
| 2024Q2 | $1.10B | 20.8% | $180.5M | 2024-08-06 | 0001628280-24-035141 |
| 2024Q1 | $1.04B | 18.9% | $151.2M | 2024-04-30 | 0001628280-24-019285 |
| 2023Q4 | $1.06B | 19.3% | $147.8M | 2024-02-23 | 0001628280-24-006606 |
| 2023Q4 | $1.03B | 19.0% | $160.8M | 2024-02-23 | 0001628280-24-006606 |
| 2023Q3 | $1.03B | 19.0% | $160.8M | 2023-11-02 | 0001628280-23-036343 |
| 2023Q3 | $1.05B | 20.0% | $156.2M | 2024-02-23 | 0001628280-24-006606 |
| 2023Q2 | $1.05B | 20.0% | $156.2M | 2023-08-02 | 0001628280-23-026678 |
| 2023Q2 | $1.04B | 18.6% | $147.7M | 2024-02-23 | 0001628280-24-006606 |
| 2023Q1 | $1.04B | 18.6% | $147.7M | 2023-05-04 | 0001628280-23-015639 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — nickel 4.4% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| nickel primaria (a priori) | 58% | 36 | 0.2025 |
| steel_ppi | 44% | 36 | 0.7975 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “No information on average selling price per ton is provided in the text.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “No scrap cost per ton is mentioned in the text.” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “We evaluate product lines on a quarterly basis to identify inventory values that exceed estimated net realizable value.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “The text does not contain information on average selling price per ton.” | rechazado |
| 2018Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2.15 | “Combined Average $2.15 $1.86 16 %” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The impact to our cost of sales for changes in the LIFO costing methodology and associated NRV inventory reserves were as follows (in millions): Six months ended June 30, 2020 2019 LIFO benefit $14.0 ” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 174816 | “Three months ended March 31, 2019 Volume (000’s pounds): High-Value 82,178 84,042 (2 )% Standard 92,638 109,249 (15 )% Total 174,816 193,291 (10 )%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 189570 | “Volume (000’s pounds): High-Value 84,564 74,089 14 % Standard 105,006 114,677 (8 )% Total 189,570 188,766 — %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 193.291 | “Volume (000’s pounds): High-Value 84,042 75,333 12 % Standard 109,249 114,985 (5 )% Total 193,291 190,318 2 %” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “No information on scrap cost per ton is provided in the text.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 0 | “The text does not contain information on tons shipped in thousands of tons.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 0 | “No information on tons shipped or volume metrics is provided in the text.” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2.26 | “Combined Average $2.26 $2.15 5 %” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2.19 | “Average prices (per lb.): High-Value $3.13 $2.84 10 % Standard $1.42 $1.23 15 % Combined Average $2.19 $1.86 18 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “We evaluate product lines on a quarterly basis to identify inventory values that exceed estimated net realizable value.” | rechazado |
| 2020Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The impact to our cost of sales for changes in the LIFO costing methodology and associated NRV inventory reserves were as follows (in millions): Three months ended March 31, 2020 2019 LIFO benefit $12” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “The text does not contain information on scrap cost per ton.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “No metal margin per ton is disclosed in the text.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The text does not contain information on metal margin per ton.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “No information on metal margin per ton is provided in the text.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 0 | “No volume metrics such as tons shipped are mentioned in the text.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “No average selling price per ton is provided in the text.” | rechazado |
| 2018Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 3.22 | “Average prices (per lb.): High-Value $3.22 $2.69 20 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Segment operating profit was $26.1 million, or 6.3% of sales, for the second quarter 2018, compared to a segment operating profit of $2.9 million, or 0.8% of sales, for the second quarter 2017.” | rechazado |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica nickel y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 39 trimestres
R² del commodity
7%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
93%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.17
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 67% | 21 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 50% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 46% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 50% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
-29 bps
hit 49% · n=43
5d tras filing
+23 bps
hit 51% · n=43
20d tras filing
+99 bps
hit 40% · n=43
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
23 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-20, verbatim del documento. 5 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-21.
geopolitico 3precio commodity 2operacional 2regulatorio 2financiero 2coste insumos 1laboral 1ciberseguridad 1
- Risks Associated with the Commercial Aerospace Industry.
- Risks Associated with Cyclicality in General Industrial Markets.
- Dependence on Critical Raw Materials Subject to Price and Availability Fluctuations
- Dependence on Critical Supplies Subject to Price and Availability Fluctuations.
- The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine may adversely affect our business and results of operations.
- Risks Associated with the Recruitment and Retention of Key Talent and the Sustainability of our Workforce.
- Risks Associated with our Intellectual Property.
- Risks Associated with Digital Technology.
- nuevoRisks Associated with Cybersecurity Threats.
- Risks Associated with Other Environmental Compliance Matters.
- Risks Associated with Disruptions to our Manufacturing Processes.
- nuevoRisks Associated with Export Sales and International Trade Matters.
- Risks Associated with Strategic Capital Projects and Maintenance Activities.
- Risks Associated with Current or Future Litigation and Claims.
- Risks Associated with Insurance Coverage.
- Risks Associated with Acquisition and Disposition Strategies.
- Risks Associated with Government Contracts
- Risks Related to Wide-Spread Public Health Crises.
- nuevoRisks Associated with Political and Social Turmoil.
- Risks Associated with Retirement Benefits.
- nuevoRisks Associated with Goodwill or Long-Lived Asset Impairments.
- nuevoRisks Associated with Internal Controls Over Financial Reporting.
- Risks Associated with Our Guidance and Other Targets and Expectations.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001628280-26-010140
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)