Bunge Global SA

BGProcesamiento agricola · crush globalactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$105.40
IV prob-weighted
$34.76
Gap
-67%
TTM EBITDA≈
$2.13B
Net debt
$10.47B
Margen (percentil hist.)
47%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

7 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 6.12–14.9× EV/EBITDA (mediana 6.74×, 502 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 16.4%, percentil 47% de su historia (17 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata soy_crush anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 50% (n=12, p=0.6128): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+9.7% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +55 bps alineados a 20d (hit 62%, n=16), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -67%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
riesgosLa empresa declara 32 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-19, 4 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20. Concentracion: operacional 11, financiero 6, geopolitico 4. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 17)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$4.66B16.4%$473.0M2026-04-290001628280-26-028235
2025Q4$23.76B4.3%$600.0M2026-02-190001628280-26-009842
2025Q3$4.37B24.3%$626.0M2025-11-050001628280-25-049587
2025Q2$4.02B18.4%$436.0M2025-08-050001996862-25-000204
2025Q1$3.66B16.3%$337.0M2025-05-070001996862-25-000086
2024Q4$13.54B8.0%$753.0M2025-02-200001996862-25-000008
2024Q3$3.87B19.9%$454.0M2024-10-300001996862-24-000259
2024Q2$3.73B17.8%$329.0M2024-08-010001996862-24-000194
2024Q1$3.94B22.2%$549.0M2024-04-240001996862-24-000094
2023Q4$14.94B8.4%$893.0M2024-02-220001996862-24-000007
2023Q3$4.36B24.0%$707.0M2024-10-300001996862-24-000259
2023Q2$4.38B31.1%$1.05B2024-08-010001996862-24-000194
2023Q1$4.72B25.0%$930.0M2024-04-240001996862-24-000094
2022Q4$16.66B4.9%n/d2024-02-220001996862-24-000007
2022Q3$16.76B5.3%n/d2024-02-220001996862-24-000007
2022Q2$17.93B4.3%n/d2024-02-220001996862-24-000007

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — soy_crush 9.7% QTD · a 2026-08-04

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
soy_crush primaria (a priori)50%120.6128
corn33%120.927
soybean58%120.3872

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+17 bps
hit 50% · n=16
5d tras filing
+16 bps
hit 44% · n=16
20d tras filing
+55 bps
hit 63% · n=16

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

32 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-19, verbatim del documento. 4 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.

operacional 11financiero 6geopolitico 4regulatorio 4precio commodity 3coste insumos 2demanda competencia 2clima agua 1ciberseguridad 1laboral 1
  • Adverse weather conditions, including as a result of climate change, may adversely affect the availability, quality and price of agricultural commodities and agricultural commodity products, as well as our operations, supply chains, and operating results.
  • The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine may adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations.
  • Our information technology systems, processes and sites may suffer interruptions, security breaches or failures that may adversely affect our ability to conduct our business.
  • We are subject to fluctuations in agricultural commodity and other raw material prices, energy prices, and other factors outside of our control that could adversely affect our operating results.
  • Our business is seasonal, and our results may fluctuate depending on the harvest cycle of the crops upon which we rely and seasonal fluctuations related to the sale of our consumer products.
  • We face intense competition in each of our businesses.
  • We are vulnerable to the effects of supply and demand imbalances in our industries
  • We are subject to global and regional economic downturns and related risks.
  • Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
  • We are subject to economic, political, and other risks of doing business globally and in emerging markets.
  • —The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine may adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations."
  • Government policies and regulations affecting the agricultural sector and related industries could adversely affect our operations and profitability.
  • We may not realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions, divestitures, or joint ventures.
  • nuevoRisks Relating to the Combined Company Following Our Acquisition of Viterra
  • We are subject to industry and other risks that could adversely affect our reputation and financial results.
  • We are subject to numerous laws and regulations globally, which could adversely affect our operating results.
  • We are a capital intensive business and depend on cash provided by our operations as well as access to external financing to operate and grow our business.
  • Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Liquidity and Capital Resources.
  • Our risk management strategies may not be effective.
  • The loss of, or a disruption in, our manufacturing and distribution operations or other operations and systems could adversely affect our business.
  • Changes in tax laws or exposure to additional tax liabilities could have a material impact on our financial condition and results of operations.
  • Our operations are dependent on a wide array of third parties.
  • Our operations have been and may in the future be adversely impacted as a result of public health crises, pandemics, and epidemics.
  • We are dependent on our executive management and other key personnel.
  • nuevoWe may fail to realize the anticipated benefits of the Acquisition, which could adversely affect the value of the registered shares.

… 7 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001628280-26-009842

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)