CAL-MAINE FOODS INC
CALMProteina animal · huevosactualizado 2026-08-03Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $552.6M | 6.2% | $-24.8M | 2026-07-22 | 0001562762-26-000080 |
| 2026Q1 | $667.0M | 17.9% | n/d | 2026-04-01 | 0001562762-26-000046 |
| 2025Q4 | $769.5M | 27.0% | n/d | 2026-01-07 | 0001562762-26-000004 |
| 2025Q3 | $922.6M | 33.7% | $278.8M | 2025-10-01 | 0001562762-25-000251 |
| 2025Q2 | $1.10B | 48.2% | $460.4M | 2025-07-22 | 0001562762-25-000170 |
| 2025Q1 | $1.42B | 50.5% | $645.3M | 2025-04-08 | 0001562762-25-000084 |
| 2024Q4 | $954.7M | 37.3% | n/d | 2025-01-07 | 0001562762-25-000004 |
| 2024Q3 | $785.9M | 31.5% | $209.0M | 2024-10-01 | 0001562762-24-000230 |
| 2024Q2 | $640.8M | 29.1% | $163.3M | 2024-07-23 | 0001562762-24-000177 |
| 2024Q1 | $703.1M | 31.1% | $176.1M | 2024-04-02 | 0001562762-24-000077 |
| 2023Q4 | $523.2M | 17.4% | n/d | 2024-01-03 | 0001562762-24-000004 |
| 2023Q3 | $459.3M | 9.9% | $12.6M | 2023-10-03 | 0001562762-23-000360 |
| 2023Q2 | $688.7M | 28.8% | $155.3M | 2023-07-25 | 0001562762-23-000287 |
| 2023Q1 | $997.5M | 46.4% | $421.6M | 2023-03-28 | 0001562762-23-000144 |
| 2022Q4 | $801.7M | 39.6% | n/d | 2022-12-28 | 0001562762-22-000497 |
| 2022Q3 | $658.3M | 33.0% | $181.2M | 2022-09-27 | 0001562762-22-000383 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| protein_vs_feed primaria (a priori) | 32% | 37 | 0.99 |
| poultry_ppi | 32% | 37 | 0.99 |
| corn | 49% | 37 | 0.6286 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica protein_vs_feed y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 36% | 25 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 64% | 25 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 68% | 25 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 72% | 25 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
26 factores del 10-K de 2026-07-22, verbatim del documento. 16 son nuevos frente al de 2025-07-22.
- nuevomaterially adverse impact on our revenues and profits.
- nuevoA decline in consumer demand for shell eggs or our prepared foods offerings have had, and in the future may have , a
- nuevoFeed costs are volatile and increases in these costs have had, and in the future may have , a material adverse impact our
- nuevoincluding as a result of inflation and tariffs , have had and in the future may have, a material adverse impact on our
- Agricultural risks, including outbreaks of avian diseases such as HPAI, have harmed and in the future could harm our
- nuevoor we may voluntarily, recall contaminated products.
- Our acquisition growth strategy subjects us to various risks.
- nuevochannels, could have a material adverse effect our business and operations.
- nuevocould have a material adverse effect on our business
- nuevocould adversely affect our pricing, margins and results of operations.
- nuevoagencies, may also adversely impact our business.
- nuevoeffect on the implementation of our business plan in a timely manner.
- nuevoday-to-day operation s and decision making processes and have a material adverse effect on our performance and
- nuevoWe are currently implementing a new enterprise resource planning (“ERP”) system, and difficulties with this transition
- nuevoLabor shortages or increases in labor costs have had and in the future could have a material adverse impact on our
- nuevoGlobal or regional health crises , including pandemics or epidemics , could have a material adverse impact on our business
- have accelerated an increase in demand for cage-free eggs, which increases uncertainty in our business and increases our
- operating results, financial condition, and reputation. Further, we may incur significant costs to comply with any current
- nuevoregulatory responses may have a material adverse impact on our business and results of operations.
- Current and future litigation and other legal matters could expose us to significant liabilities and have a material adverse
- nuevoEconomic conditions, including inflation and interest rates, could negatively impact our business.
- The loss of any registered trademark or other intellectual property could enable other companies to compete more
- Impairment in the carrying value of goodwill or other assets could negatively affect our results of operations or net worth.
- Provisions of our certificate of incorporation, bylaws, and Delaware law may make an acquisition of us or a change in our
- experience significant dilution as a result of future issuances of our securities, which could have a material adverse effect
… 1 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001562762-26-000080