CENTURY ALUMINUM CO
CENXAluminio · fundición primariaactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
11 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $649.2M | 18.3% | $396.7M | 2026-05-07 | 0001628280-26-032094 |
| 2025Q4 | $633.7M | 13.0% | $63.2M | 2026-03-03 | 0001628280-26-013788 |
| 2025Q3 | $632.2M | 11.8% | $76.1M | 2025-11-06 | 0001628280-25-050200 |
| 2025Q2 | $628.1M | 5.3% | $35.5M | 2025-08-07 | 0001628280-25-038882 |
| 2025Q1 | $633.9M | 9.0% | $66.8M | 2025-05-08 | 0000949157-25-000035 |
| 2024Q4 | $630.9M | 8.5% | $58.2M | 2025-11-06 | 0000949157-25-000024 |
| 2024Q3 | $539.1M | 14.3% | $82.0M | 2025-11-06 | 0001628280-25-050200 |
| 2024Q2 | $560.8M | 2.8% | $23.3M | 2024-08-08 | 0000949157-24-000078 |
| 2024Q1 | $489.5M | 2.7% | $18.3M | 2024-05-01 | 0000949157-24-000046 |
| 2023Q4 | $512.3M | 6.9% | $48.6M | 2024-03-15 | 0000949157-24-000028 |
| 2023Q3 | $545.2M | -2.1% | $-400000.00 | 2023-11-08 | 0000949157-23-000071 |
| 2023Q2 | $575.5M | 2.8% | $14.9M | 2023-08-09 | 0000949157-23-000065 |
| 2023Q1 | $552.4M | 8.7% | $43.4M | 2023-05-09 | 0000949157-23-000035 |
| 2022Q4 | $529.9M | -3.7% | $-14.6M | 2023-02-27 | 0000949157-23-000023 |
| 2022Q3 | $637.2M | -6.8% | $-36.1M | 2022-11-07 | 0000949157-22-000053 |
| 2022Q2 | $856.6M | 1.9% | $-126.8M | 2022-08-09 | 0000949157-22-000046 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — aluminum 11.7% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| aluminum primaria (a priori) | 72% | 36 | 0.0057 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020Q1 | shipments_kmt | 202905 | “Shipments - Primary Aluminum(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2020 1st Quarter 129,114 $ 273.8 73,791 $ 141.0” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 2050 | “reflecting a heavier mix of sow and molten product in 2017 compared to 2016” | rechazado |
| 2020Q3 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 584.3 | “Net sales (excluding alumina sales) decreased by $63.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, primarily driven by unfavorable LME and regional prem” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 203 | “Net sales decreased by $71.2 million for the three months ended June 30, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, primarily driven by unfavorable LME and regional premium price realizations of $66.3 ” | rechazado |
| 2024Q3 | shipments_kmt | 168755 | “Shipments - Primary Aluminum(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) 2024 3rd Quarter 97,173 $282.6 71,582 $202.8 168,755 ” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q2 | shipments_kmt | 386591 | “Total229,229 $589.6 157,362 $344.3 386,591 $933.9” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 1248.5 | “driven by higher price realizations of $264.5 million primarily resulting from increases in the LME price for primary aluminum” | rechazado |
| 2019Q3 | shipments_kmt | 198543 | “38 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2019 3rd Quarter 119,916 $ 272.0 78,627 $ 15” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 0 | “Excludes scrap aluminum and alumina sales.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 2843 | “Net sales increased by $34.9 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to higher third-party alumina sales of $125.5 million attributabl” | rechazado |
| 2019Q3 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 137.5 | “Net sales for the three months ended September 30, 2019 decreased compared to the same period in 2018 driven by unfavorable LME and regional premiums of $93.4 million, offset by favorable volume and p” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | shipments_kmt | 211411 | “211,411 $742.3” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | shipments_kmt | 700680 | “34 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United StatesIcelandTotal TonnesRevenue $ TonnesRevenue $TonnesRevenue $ (dollars in millions) 2023389,331 $1,139.0 311,349 $827.0 700,680 $1,966.0” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q4 | shipments_kmt | 749850 | “U.S. shipments for 2018 reflect increases from the Hawesville restart offset by lower production from the Sebree line loss.” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 0 | “Excludes scrap aluminum, purchased aluminum and alumina sales” | rechazado |
| 2020Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 0 | “Excludes scrap aluminum and alumina sales” | rechazado |
| 2018Q3 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 2.66 | “Net sales for the three months ended September 30, 2018 improved $81.2 million compared to the same period in 2017 driven primarily by favorable price realizations of $84.0 million partially offset by” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | shipments_kmt | 206451 | “31 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2019 1st Quarter 130,043 $ 313.3 76,408 $ 15” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | shipments_kmt | 259759 | “259,759 $520.4 153,455 $286.9 413,214 $807.3” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | shipments_kmt | 743198 | “743,198 $ 1,580.3” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 581600 | “2026 1st Quarter 93,668 $494.3 29,197 $87.3 122,865 $581.6” | rechazado |
| 2021Q1 | shipments_kmt | 195697 | “Shipments - Primary Aluminum United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2021 1st Quarter 116,437 $275.6 79,260 $164.2 195,” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 378193 | “SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United StatesIcelandTotal TonnesRevenue $ TonnesRevenue $TonnesRevenue $ (dollars in millions) 2024378,193 $1,074.6 299,774 $793.3 677,967 $1,867.9” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 0 | “Excludes scrap aluminum, purchased aluminum and alumina sales” | rechazado |
| 2021Q1 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 275697 | “Net sales (excluding alumina sales) increased by $25.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, primarily driven by favorable LME and regional premium pr” | rechazado |
| 2018Q3 | shipments_kmt | 310706 | “310,706 $ 829.1 239,678 $ 569.2 550,384 $ 1,398.3” | rechazado |
| 2024Q2 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 266.5 | “Sales $ (in millions) Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) 2024 2nd Quarter 93,805 $266.5 74,103 $185.8 167,908 $452.3” | rechazado |
| 2018Q4 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 1440.5 | “Net sales for the twelve months ended December 31, 2018 improved $304.1 million compared to the same period in 2017, driven by higher price realizations of $265.1 million primarily resulting from incr” | rechazado |
| 2019Q2 | shipments_kmt | 255197 | “35 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2019 2nd Quarter 125,154 $ 295.0 78,226 $ 15” | rechazado |
| 2021Q3 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 2600 | “favorable LME and regional premium price realizations of $222.1 million” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | shipments_kmt | 768691 | “SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Revenue $ Tonnes Revenue $ Tonnes Revenue $ (dollars in millions) 2022 459,991 $1,650.4 308,700 $1,040.1 768,691 $2,690.5” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q4 | shipments_kmt | 811244 | “SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Revenue $ Tonnes Revenue $ Tonnes Revenue $ (dollars in millions) 2019 495,096 $ 1,143.8 316,148 $ 628.3 811,244 $ 1,772.1” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | shipments_kmt | 378594 | “Shipments - PRIMARY ALUMINUM United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2020 3rd Quarter 118,835 $221.8 84,187 $138.4 203,” | rechazado |
| 2021Q3 | shipments_kmt | 347180 | “347,180 $956.2 235,506 $551.9 582,686 $1,508.1” | rechazado |
| 2020Q1 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 202905 | “Net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2020 decreased by $68.8 million compared to the same period in 2019, primarily driven by unfavorable LME and regional premiums of $44.0 million and unfav” | rechazado |
| 2021Q4 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 0 | “Excludes scrap aluminum and alumina sales” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 317529 | “317,529 $ 650.7” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | shipments_kmt | 647112 | “37 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United StatesIcelandTotal TonnesRevenueTonnesRevenueTonnesRevenue (dollars in millions) 2025371,708 $1,411.7 275,404 $785.6 647,112 $2,197.3” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q1 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 3.5 | “favorable LME price realizations of $36.8 million” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | shipments_kmt | 207603 | “31 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2018 2nd Quarter 100,458 $ 279.4 79,762 $ 18” | rechazado |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica aluminum y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 75% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 79% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 79% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 83% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_realized_price_usd_mt (MD&A verificado) vs aluminum — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
44 factores del 10-K de 2026-03-03, verbatim del documento. 6 son nuevos frente al de 2025-03-03.
- condition and results of operation, and cause our future results to differ materially from our current results and from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. These risk factors should be considered together with the other risks and uncertainties described in
- Risks Related to our Industry and Business
- Risks Related to Indebtedness and Financing
- Risks Related to Legal, Regulatory and Compliance Matters
- Declines in overall aluminum prices could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
- Excess capacity and overproduction of aluminum may materially disrupt global aluminum markets causing price deterioration which, in turn, could adversely impact our operating results, sales, margins and profitability.
- Increases in energy costs may adversely affect our business, financial position, results of operations and liquidity.
- Loss or disruptions in our supply of power and other power-related events could adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations.
- nuevoWe experienced an electrical equipment failure in October 2025 that reduced production at our Grundartangi smelter’s operations by about two-thirds, and there can be no assurance that we will be able to restore Grundartangi to full and normal operations on the time frame we currently expect.
- We may be unable to continue to compete successfully in the markets in which we operate.
- Curtailment of aluminum production at our facilities could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position, results of operations and liquidity.
- The restart of curtailed capacity at our Mt. Holly smelter is subject to certain risks and uncertainties.
- Increases in our raw material costs and disruptions in our supply of raw materials could adversely affect our business
- We may be unable to realize expected benefits of our capital projects.
- nuevoThere is no assurance that we and EGA will make a final investment decision to proceed with the new smelter project, and if we do, we may not realize the anticipated benefits from the joint venture.
- nuevoThe construction and operation of the new smelter joint venture project with EGA is subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
- Certain of our raw material and services contracts contain "take-or-pay" obligations.
- We have historically derived substantially all of our revenue from a small number of customers, and we could be adversely affected by the loss of a major customer or changes in the business or financial condition of our major customers.
- We require substantial resources to pay our operating expenses and fund our capital expenditures.
- International operations expose us to political, economic, regulatory, currency and other related risks which may materially adversely impact our business.
- Unpredictable events may interrupt our operations, which may adversely affect our business.
- We engage in hedging transactions which involve risks that could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position and liquidity.
- Jamalco’s operations are complex and we may experience substantial risks, delays and/or disruptions in connection with integration activities, a failure of which may result in a material adverse effect on Jamalco’s and Century’s business, financial condition and results of operations.
- Jamalco is operated as an unincorporated joint venture, which may pose unique risks to its operations.
- nuevo22. Restatement of Previously Issued Financial Statements
… 19 más en risk_factors.json
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