CENTURY ALUMINUM CO

CENXAluminio · fundición primariaactualizado 2026-07-28
Precio
$43.96
IV prob-weighted
$82.62
Gap
88%
TTM EBITDA≈
$571.5M
Net debt
$-244.1M
Margen (percentil hist.)
97%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

11 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 11.32–20.89× EV/EBITDA (mediana 16.72×, 1229 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 18.3%, percentil 97% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata aluminum anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 72% (n=36, p=0.0057): señal operativa utilizable. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+11.7% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
realizedPrecio realizado (avg_realized_price_usd_mt) vs spot: corr niveles 0.025, Δ -0.376, captura β -0.171 (n=9): DESACOPLADO del spot de referencia — la cadena mercado→P&L pasa por otro mercado o por contratos. [realized_model.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +732 bps alineados a 20d (hit 67%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual +88%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia56/56 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (28 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 18% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 82% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.266: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 75%, OLS commodity 79%, OLS+coste 79%, signo+coste 83%. Gana signo+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 44 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-03-03, 6 nuevos frente al de 2025-03-03. Concentracion: operacional 19, financiero 15, regulatorio 8. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$649.2M18.3%$396.7M2026-05-070001628280-26-032094
2025Q4$633.7M13.0%$63.2M2026-03-030001628280-26-013788
2025Q3$632.2M11.8%$76.1M2025-11-060001628280-25-050200
2025Q2$628.1M5.3%$35.5M2025-08-070001628280-25-038882
2025Q1$633.9M9.0%$66.8M2025-05-080000949157-25-000035
2024Q4$630.9M8.5%$58.2M2025-11-060000949157-25-000024
2024Q3$539.1M14.3%$82.0M2025-11-060001628280-25-050200
2024Q2$560.8M2.8%$23.3M2024-08-080000949157-24-000078
2024Q1$489.5M2.7%$18.3M2024-05-010000949157-24-000046
2023Q4$512.3M6.9%$48.6M2024-03-150000949157-24-000028
2023Q3$545.2M-2.1%$-400000.002023-11-080000949157-23-000071
2023Q2$575.5M2.8%$14.9M2023-08-090000949157-23-000065
2023Q1$552.4M8.7%$43.4M2023-05-090000949157-23-000035
2022Q4$529.9M-3.7%$-14.6M2023-02-270000949157-23-000023
2022Q3$637.2M-6.8%$-36.1M2022-11-070000949157-22-000053
2022Q2$856.6M1.9%$-126.8M2022-08-090000949157-22-000046

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube aluminum 11.7% QTD · a 2026-07-29

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
aluminum primaria (a priori)72%360.0057

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)

Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)

TrimestreMétricaValorCita textualEstado
2020Q1shipments_kmt202905Shipments - Primary Aluminum(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2020 1st Quarter 129,114 $ 273.8 73,791 $ 141.0rechazado
2017Q4avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt2050reflecting a heavier mix of sow and molten product in 2017 compared to 2016rechazado
2020Q3avg_realized_price_usd_mt584.3Net sales (excluding alumina sales) decreased by $63.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, primarily driven by unfavorable LME and regional premrechazado
2020Q2avg_realized_price_usd_mt203Net sales decreased by $71.2 million for the three months ended June 30, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, primarily driven by unfavorable LME and regional premium price realizations of $66.3 rechazado
2024Q3shipments_kmt168755Shipments - Primary Aluminum(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) 2024 3rd Quarter 97,173 $282.6 71,582 $202.8 168,755 auditado ✓
2021Q2shipments_kmt386591Total229,229 $589.6 157,362 $344.3 386,591 $933.9rechazado
2017Q4avg_realized_price_usd_mt1248.5driven by higher price realizations of $264.5 million primarily resulting from increases in the LME price for primary aluminumrechazado
2019Q3shipments_kmt19854338 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2019 3rd Quarter 119,916 $ 272.0 78,627 $ 15rechazado
2022Q1alumina_shipments_kmt0Excludes scrap aluminum and alumina sales.rechazado
2024Q4avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt2843Net sales increased by $34.9 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to higher third-party alumina sales of $125.5 million attributablrechazado
2019Q3avg_realized_price_usd_mt137.5Net sales for the three months ended September 30, 2019 decreased compared to the same period in 2018 driven by unfavorable LME and regional premiums of $93.4 million, offset by favorable volume and prechazado
2022Q1shipments_kmt211411211,411 $742.3rechazado
2023Q4shipments_kmt70068034 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United StatesIcelandTotal TonnesRevenue $ TonnesRevenue $TonnesRevenue $ (dollars in millions) 2023389,331 $1,139.0 311,349 $827.0 700,680 $1,966.0auditado ✓
2018Q4shipments_kmt749850U.S. shipments for 2018 reflect increases from the Hawesville restart offset by lower production from the Sebree line loss.rechazado
2022Q4alumina_shipments_kmt0Excludes scrap aluminum, purchased aluminum and alumina salesrechazado
2020Q4alumina_shipments_kmt0Excludes scrap aluminum and alumina salesrechazado
2018Q3avg_realized_price_usd_mt2.66Net sales for the three months ended September 30, 2018 improved $81.2 million compared to the same period in 2017 driven primarily by favorable price realizations of $84.0 million partially offset byrechazado
2019Q1shipments_kmt20645131 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2019 1st Quarter 130,043 $ 313.3 76,408 $ 15rechazado
2020Q2shipments_kmt259759259,759 $520.4 153,455 $286.9 413,214 $807.3rechazado
2017Q4shipments_kmt743198743,198 $ 1,580.3rechazado
2026Q1avg_realized_price_usd_mt5816002026 1st Quarter 93,668 $494.3 29,197 $87.3 122,865 $581.6rechazado
2021Q1shipments_kmt195697Shipments - Primary Aluminum United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2021 1st Quarter 116,437 $275.6 79,260 $164.2 195,rechazado
2024Q4alumina_shipments_kmt378193SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United StatesIcelandTotal TonnesRevenue $ TonnesRevenue $TonnesRevenue $ (dollars in millions) 2024378,193 $1,074.6 299,774 $793.3 677,967 $1,867.9rechazado
2023Q4alumina_shipments_kmt0Excludes scrap aluminum, purchased aluminum and alumina salesrechazado
2021Q1avg_realized_price_usd_mt275697Net sales (excluding alumina sales) increased by $25.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, primarily driven by favorable LME and regional premium prrechazado
2018Q3shipments_kmt310706310,706 $ 829.1 239,678 $ 569.2 550,384 $ 1,398.3rechazado
2024Q2avg_realized_price_usd_mt266.5Sales $ (in millions) Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) Tonnes Sales $ (in millions) 2024 2nd Quarter 93,805 $266.5 74,103 $185.8 167,908 $452.3rechazado
2018Q4avg_realized_price_usd_mt1440.5Net sales for the twelve months ended December 31, 2018 improved $304.1 million compared to the same period in 2017, driven by higher price realizations of $265.1 million primarily resulting from incrrechazado
2019Q2shipments_kmt25519735 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2019 2nd Quarter 125,154 $ 295.0 78,226 $ 15rechazado
2021Q3avg_realized_price_usd_mt2600favorable LME and regional premium price realizations of $222.1 millionrechazado
2022Q4shipments_kmt768691SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Revenue $ Tonnes Revenue $ Tonnes Revenue $ (dollars in millions) 2022 459,991 $1,650.4 308,700 $1,040.1 768,691 $2,690.5auditado ✓
2019Q4shipments_kmt811244SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Revenue $ Tonnes Revenue $ Tonnes Revenue $ (dollars in millions) 2019 495,096 $ 1,143.8 316,148 $ 628.3 811,244 $ 1,772.1auditado ✓
2020Q3shipments_kmt378594Shipments - PRIMARY ALUMINUM United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2020 3rd Quarter 118,835 $221.8 84,187 $138.4 203,rechazado
2021Q3shipments_kmt347180347,180 $956.2 235,506 $551.9 582,686 $1,508.1rechazado
2020Q1avg_realized_price_usd_mt202905Net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2020 decreased by $68.8 million compared to the same period in 2019, primarily driven by unfavorable LME and regional premiums of $44.0 million and unfavrechazado
2021Q4avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt0Excludes scrap aluminum and alumina salesrechazado
2017Q4alumina_shipments_kmt317529317,529 $ 650.7rechazado
2025Q4shipments_kmt64711237 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United StatesIcelandTotal TonnesRevenueTonnesRevenueTonnesRevenue (dollars in millions) 2025371,708 $1,411.7 275,404 $785.6 647,112 $2,197.3auditado ✓
2022Q1avg_realized_price_usd_mt3.5favorable LME price realizations of $36.8 millionrechazado
2018Q2shipments_kmt20760331 SHIPMENTS - PRIMARY ALUMINUM(1) United States Iceland Total Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) Tonnes Net Sales (in millions) 2018 2nd Quarter 100,458 $ 279.4 79,762 $ 18rechazado

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica aluminum y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres

R² del commodity
18%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
82%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.27
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)75%24
OLS sobre el commodity79%24
OLS + momentum de coste79%24
Signo + momentum de coste mejor83%24

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)

avg_realized_price_usd_mt (MD&A verificado) vs aluminum — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado

Corr. niveles
0.03
Corr. Δ trimestral
-0.38
β captura Δ%spot→Δ%real
-0.17
n pares
9

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
-2 bps
hit 61% · n=36
5d tras filing
+187 bps
hit 58% · n=36
20d tras filing
+732 bps
hit 67% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

44 factores del 10-K de 2026-03-03, verbatim del documento. 6 son nuevos frente al de 2025-03-03.

operacional 19financiero 15regulatorio 8coste insumos 6precio commodity 3geopolitico 2demanda competencia 1laboral 1ciberseguridad 1clima agua 1
  • condition and results of operation, and cause our future results to differ materially from our current results and from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. These risk factors should be considered together with the other risks and uncertainties described in
  • Risks Related to our Industry and Business
  • Risks Related to Indebtedness and Financing
  • Risks Related to Legal, Regulatory and Compliance Matters
  • Declines in overall aluminum prices could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
  • Excess capacity and overproduction of aluminum may materially disrupt global aluminum markets causing price deterioration which, in turn, could adversely impact our operating results, sales, margins and profitability.
  • Increases in energy costs may adversely affect our business, financial position, results of operations and liquidity.
  • Loss or disruptions in our supply of power and other power-related events could adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations.
  • nuevoWe experienced an electrical equipment failure in October 2025 that reduced production at our Grundartangi smelter’s operations by about two-thirds, and there can be no assurance that we will be able to restore Grundartangi to full and normal operations on the time frame we currently expect.
  • We may be unable to continue to compete successfully in the markets in which we operate.
  • Curtailment of aluminum production at our facilities could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position, results of operations and liquidity.
  • The restart of curtailed capacity at our Mt. Holly smelter is subject to certain risks and uncertainties.
  • Increases in our raw material costs and disruptions in our supply of raw materials could adversely affect our business
  • We may be unable to realize expected benefits of our capital projects.
  • nuevoThere is no assurance that we and EGA will make a final investment decision to proceed with the new smelter project, and if we do, we may not realize the anticipated benefits from the joint venture.
  • nuevoThe construction and operation of the new smelter joint venture project with EGA is subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
  • Certain of our raw material and services contracts contain "take-or-pay" obligations.
  • We have historically derived substantially all of our revenue from a small number of customers, and we could be adversely affected by the loss of a major customer or changes in the business or financial condition of our major customers.
  • We require substantial resources to pay our operating expenses and fund our capital expenditures.
  • International operations expose us to political, economic, regulatory, currency and other related risks which may materially adversely impact our business.
  • Unpredictable events may interrupt our operations, which may adversely affect our business.
  • We engage in hedging transactions which involve risks that could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position and liquidity.
  • Jamalco’s operations are complex and we may experience substantial risks, delays and/or disruptions in connection with integration activities, a failure of which may result in a material adverse effect on Jamalco’s and Century’s business, financial condition and results of operations.
  • Jamalco is operated as an unincorporated joint venture, which may pose unique risks to its operations.
  • nuevo22. Restatement of Previously Issued Financial Statements

19 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001628280-26-013788

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)