CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CFFertilizante nitrogenado · amoniaco y ureaactualizado 2026-08-03Precio
$118.30
IV prob-weighted
$131.79
Gap
11%
TTM EBITDA≈
$3.61B
Net debt
$1.17B
Margen (percentil hist.)
68%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 4.78–7.7× EV/EBITDA (mediana 5.9×, 1871 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 37.6%, percentil 68% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata nitrogen_spread anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 64% (n=36, p=0.0662): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: nitrogen_ppi 83% (n=36, p=0.0). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+95.8% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -125 bps alineados a 20d (hit 47%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual +11%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 10% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 90% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.327: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 58%, OLS commodity 62%, OLS+coste 62%, signo+coste 62%. Gana OLS commodity: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 20 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-25, 2 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20. Concentracion: operacional 11, demanda competencia 6, regulatorio 5. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $1.99B | 37.6% | $1.09B | 2026-05-07 | 0001324404-26-000013 |
| 2025Q4 | $1.87B | 40.9% | $845.0M | 2026-02-25 | 0001324404-26-000007 |
| 2025Q3 | $1.66B | 38.1% | $797.0M | 2025-11-06 | 0001324404-25-000030 |
| 2025Q2 | $1.89B | 40.0% | $880.0M | 2025-08-07 | 0001324404-25-000024 |
| 2025Q1 | $1.66B | 34.4% | $676.0M | 2025-05-08 | 0001324404-25-000015 |
| 2024Q4 | $1.52B | 34.4% | $662.0M | 2025-02-20 | 0001324404-25-000006 |
| 2024Q3 | $1.37B | 32.4% | $593.0M | 2024-10-31 | 0001324404-24-000026 |
| 2024Q2 | $1.57B | 43.2% | $860.0M | 2024-08-08 | 0001324404-24-000020 |
| 2024Q1 | $1.47B | 27.8% | $556.0M | 2024-05-02 | 0001324404-24-000014 |
| 2023Q4 | $1.57B | 31.9% | $655.0M | 2024-02-22 | 0001324404-24-000008 |
| 2023Q3 | $1.27B | 29.6% | $457.0M | 2023-11-02 | 0001324404-23-000025 |
| 2023Q2 | $1.77B | 45.3% | $955.0M | 2023-08-03 | 0001324404-23-000019 |
| 2023Q1 | $2.01B | 42.9% | $1.03B | 2023-05-02 | 0001324404-23-000012 |
| 2022Q4 | $2.61B | 48.2% | $1.41B | 2023-02-23 | 0001324404-23-000006 |
| 2022Q3 | $2.32B | 39.5% | $971.0M | 2022-11-03 | 0001324404-22-000028 |
| 2022Q2 | $3.39B | 58.8% | $2.00B | 2022-08-02 | 0001324404-22-000022 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — nitrogen_spread 95.8% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| nitrogen_spread primaria (a priori) | 64% | 36 | 0.0662 |
| nitrogen_ppi | 83% | 36 | 0 |
| natgas | 47% | 36 | 0.6911 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica nitrogen_spread y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
R² del commodity
10%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
90%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.33
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 58% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity mejor | 63% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste mejor | 63% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 63% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
+14 bps
hit 53% · n=36
5d tras filing
-133 bps
hit 47% · n=36
20d tras filing
-125 bps
hit 47% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
20 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-25, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.
operacional 11demanda competencia 6regulatorio 5financiero 3coste insumos 3precio commodity 2clima agua 2ciberseguridad 1laboral 1
- Our industry is cyclical, and our operating results are highly dependent upon and fluctuate based upon changes in supply and demand of nitrogen products, and our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows tend to be negatively affected in periods of industry oversupply.
- Nitrogen products are global commodities, and we face intense global competition from other producers.
- A decline in agricultural production, limitations on the use of our products for agricultural purposes or developments in crop technology could materially adversely affect the demand for our products.
- Our business is dependent on natural gas, the prices of which are subject to volatility.
- Adverse weather conditions may decrease demand for our fertilizer products, increase the cost of natural gas or materially disrupt our operations. Adverse weather conditions could become more frequent and/or more severe as a result of climate change.
- Our operating results fluctuate due to seasonality. Our inability to predict future seasonal fertilizer demand accurately could result in our having excess inventory, potentially at costs in excess of market value.
- Our operations are dependent upon raw materials and utilities provided by third parties, and any delay or interruption in the delivery of raw materials or utilities may adversely affect our business.
- nuevo) sequestration, rely on third party providers and are subject to environmental, safety and regulatory oversight. This exposes us to risks and uncertainties beyond our control that may adversely affect our operations and exposes us to additional liability.
- We are reliant on a limited number of key facilities.
- Failure, inadequacy, breach of, or unauthorized access to, our information technology systems or those of third-party service providers or customers could negatively affect our business and operations.
- Acts of terrorism and regulations to combat terrorism could negatively affect our business.
- Our operations and the production and handling of our products involve significant risks and hazards. We are not fully insured against all potential hazards and risks incident to our business and as a result, may not be able to adequately cover our losses.
- Our international operations and business activities expose us to risks that could negatively affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
- Our indebtedness could adversely affect our cash flow, prevent us from fulfilling our obligations and impair our ability to pursue or achieve other business objectives.
- Tax matters, including changes in tax laws or rates, adverse determinations by taxing authorities and imposition of new taxes could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
- Our business is subject to risks involving derivatives and the risk that our hedging activities might not prevent losses.
- We are subject to numerous environmental, health and safety laws, regulations and permitting requirements, as well as potential environmental liabilities, which may require us to make substantial expenditures or modify business plans.
- nuevoRegulatory or legislative provisions related to GHG emissions in the jurisdictions in which we operate or conduct business could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
- If we fail to successfully enter into or close collaborations, joint ventures, partnerships or acquisitions, or successfully manage such transactions, it could adversely affect our business and growth opportunities.
- Failure of technologies to perform, develop or be available as expected could adversely affect our ability to produce low-carbon ammonia and our financial results or reputation.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001324404-26-000007
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)