CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC.

CLFAcero integrado · BF-BOF + mineral propioactualizado 2026-07-28
Precio
$11.98
IV prob-weighted
$0.00
Gap
-100%
TTM EBITDA≈
$284.0M
Net debt
$7.63B
Margen (percentil hist.)
29%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 4.8–8.67× EV/EBITDA (mediana 6.87×, 1407 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 2.5%, percentil 29% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata steel_vs_ore anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 60% (n=37, p=0.162): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: steel_ppi 73% (n=37, p=0.0038). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -139 bps alineados a 20d (hit 50%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -100%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia51/62 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (27 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 0% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 100% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo 0.052: persiste). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 60%, OLS commodity 44%, OLS+coste 40%, signo+coste 52%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 26 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-09, 3 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-25. Concentracion: operacional 14, coste insumos 9, regulatorio 6. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$5.23B2.5%$213.0M2026-07-230000764065-26-000100
2026Q1$4.92B-1.7%$46.0M2026-04-210000764065-26-000070
2025Q4$4.31B-4.8%$-59.0M2026-02-090000764065-26-000025
2025Q3$4.73B-1.0%$84.0M2025-10-220000764065-25-000149
2025Q2$4.93B-4.3%$-108.0M2025-07-230000764065-25-000124
2025Q1$4.63B-8.6%$-261.0M2025-05-080000764065-25-000103
2024Q4$4.33B-6.3%$-207.0M2025-02-250000764065-25-000058
2024Q3$4.57B-2.3%$-26.0M2024-11-050000764065-24-000206
2024Q2$5.09B3.2%$234.0M2024-07-240000764065-24-000167
2024Q1$5.20B5.5%$192.0M2024-04-250000764065-24-000108
2023Q4$5.11B2.9%$117.0M2024-02-080000764065-24-000038
2023Q3$5.61B8.6%$574.0M2023-10-250000764065-23-000162
2023Q2$5.98B10.8%$730.0M2023-07-260000764065-23-000129
2023Q1$5.29B1.9%$211.0M2023-04-260000764065-23-000083
2022Q4$5.04B-1.2%$64.0M2023-02-140000764065-23-000032
2022Q3$5.65B6.2%$424.0M2022-10-260000764065-22-000154

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
steel_vs_ore primaria (a priori)60%370.162
steel_ppi73%370.0038
iron_ore49%370.6286

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)

Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)

TrimestreMétricaValorCita textualEstado
2022Q1tons_shipped_k0rechazado
2023Q4tons_shipped_k14851Steel shipments by product: Hot-rolled steel5,899 4,326 36 % Cold-rolled steel2,389 2,286 5 % Coated steel4,791 4,730 1 % Stainless and electrical steel682 763 (11)% Plate899 880 2 % Slab and other strechazado
2019Q3metal_margin_usd_ton28.83Sales margin $ 28.83 $ 40.36 $ (11.53 ) (28.6 )%auditado ✓
2019Q2metal_margin_usd_ton42.49Sales margin $ 42.49 $ 47.67 $ (5.18 ) (10.9 )%auditado ✓
2023Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton1171AVERAGE SELLING PRICE PER TON OF STEEL PRODUCTS: $1,360 $1,171auditado ✓
2019Q3scrap_cost_usd_ton0scrap cost usd ton is not mentioned in the textrechazado
2021Q1scrap_cost_usd_ton535The price of busheling scrap, a necessary input for flat-rolled steel production in EAFs in the U.S., averaged $535 per long ton during the first quarter of 2021rechazado
2022Q4tons_shipped_k14751Total steel shipments by product14,751 15,886 (7)%auditado ✓
2018Q4metal_margin_usd_ton0Our Mining and Pelletizing segment produces differentiated iron ore pellets that are customized for use in customers’ blast furnaces as part of the steelmaking process.rechazado
2023Q2scrap_cost_usd_ton0rechazado
2018Q1metal_margin_usd_ton38.17Sales margin $ 38.17 $ 15.72 $ 22.45 142.8 %auditado ✓
2021Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton1374The HRC index averaged $1,374 per net ton for the first six months of 2021rechazado
2022Q1metal_margin_usd_ton0rechazado
2023Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton0rechazado
2018Q2scrap_cost_usd_ton62.32Cash cost of goods sold and operating expense rate1,2 62.32 59.30 3.02 5.1 %auditado ✓
2022Q1scrap_cost_usd_ton795The Fastmarkets AMM Cleveland busheling price increased from $580 per long ton at the beginning of the first quarter of 2022 to $795 per long ton for the most recently reported data.rechazado
2022Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton127The Platts 62% price averaged $127 per metric ton in the first nine months of 2022rechazado
2021Q2scrap_cost_usd_ton571The price of busheling scrap...averaged $571 per long ton during the first six months of 2021rechazado
2019Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton93.81Realized product revenue rate1 $ 93.81 $ 105.03 $ (11.22 ) (10.7 )%auditado ✓
2021Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton240an increase in the average steel product selling price of $240 per net tonauditado ✓
2026Q1scrap_cost_usd_ton434The busheling price averaged $434 per long ton during the first quarter of 2026.rechazado
2022Q2scrap_cost_usd_ton670The Fastmarkets AMM Cleveland busheling price peaked at $795 per long ton in April 2022 before declining to $670 per long ton at the end of the second quarter.rechazado
2025Q4tons_shipped_k16229Steel shipments by product: Hot-rolled steel6,484 5,593 16 % Cold-rolled steel2,382 2,524 (6)% Coated steel4,486 4,477 — % Stainless and electrical steel552 567 (3)% Plate863 755 14 % Slab and other srechazado
2023Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton0Higher than historical imported pig iron costs should continue to support a higher HRC price.rechazado
2026Q2scrap_cost_usd_ton458The busheling price averaged $458 per long ton during the second quarter of 2026.rechazado
2025Q2scrap_cost_usd_ton466The busheling price averaged $466 per long ton during the second quarter of 2025, representing a 9% increase compared to the second quarter of 2024.rechazado
2023Q2metal_margin_usd_ton0rechazado
2024Q1tons_shipped_k0rechazado
2019Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton108.89Realized product revenue rate1 $ 108.89 $ 110.99 $ (2.10 ) (1.9 )%auditado ✓
2021Q4tons_shipped_k12100The increase was primarily due to the addition of 12.1 million net tons of steel shipments from our Steelmaking segment resulting from the 2020 Acquisitions, along with an increase in the average steerechazado
2021Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton1500The HRC index averaged $1,500 per net ton for the first nine months of 2021rechazado
2021Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton1201The HRC index averaged $1,201 per net ton for the first quarter of 2021rechazado
2019Q4scrap_cost_usd_ton38the market for pellets deteriorated rapidly during the second half of 2019, ending at a price of $38 per metric ton.rechazado
2019Q1scrap_cost_usd_ton61.94Cash cost of goods sold rate1,2 61.94 57.05 4.89 8.6 %auditado ✓
2019Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton95.65Realized product revenue rate1 $ 95.65 $ 105.65 $ (10.00 ) (9.5 )%auditado ✓
2025Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton1005AVERAGE SELLING PRICE PER TON OF STEEL PRODUCTS: $16,865$16,311—%(5)%4%—%$1,081$1,005auditado ✓
2022Q3scrap_cost_usd_ton0As we are fully integrated and have primarily a blast furnace footprint, increased prices for busheling scrap in the U.S. bolster our competitive advantagerechazado
2018Q4scrap_cost_usd_ton0We expect that the HBI production plant, once operational, will consume approximately 2.8 million long tons of our DR-grade pellets per year.rechazado
2024Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton0rechazado
2022Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton0rechazado

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica steel_vs_ore y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres

R² del commodity
0%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
100%
AR(1) del residuo
0.05
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor60%25
OLS sobre el commodity44%25
OLS + momentum de coste40%25
Signo + momentum de coste52%25

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+63 bps
hit 46% · n=37
5d tras filing
-145 bps
hit 47% · n=36
20d tras filing
-139 bps
hit 50% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

26 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-09, verbatim del documento. 3 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-25.

operacional 14coste insumos 9regulatorio 6financiero 5precio commodity 4demanda competencia 3geopolitico 3laboral 3clima agua 2ciberseguridad 1
  • The volatility of commodity prices, including steel, scrap metal and iron ore, directly and indirectly affects our ability to generate revenue, maintain stable cash flows and fund our operations.
  • We sell a significant portion of our steel products to the automotive market, and fluctuations or changes in the automotive market could adversely affect our business operations and financial performance.
  • nuevoGlobal steelmaking overcapacity and overproduction, as well as steel imports, could lead to lower or more volatile global steel prices, directly or indirectly impacting our profitability.
  • Severe financial hardship or bankruptcy of one or more of our major customers or key vendors could adversely affect our business operations and financial performance.
  • U.S. government actions and other countries’ reactions in respect of trade agreements and treaties, laws, regulations, or policies affecting trade could lead to lower or more volatile global steel prices, impacting our profitability.
  • We are subject to extensive governmental regulation, which imposes potentially significant costs and liabilities on us. Future laws and regulations or the way they are interpreted and enforced could increase these costs and liabilities or limit our ability to produce our raw materials and products.
  • Our operations use hazardous materials and inadvertently may impact the environment, which could result in material liabilities to us.
  • We may be unable to obtain, maintain, renew or comply with permits and licenses necessary for our operations or be required to provide additional financial assurances, which could reduce our production, cash flows, profitability and available liquidity.
  • nuevoWe continue to face ongoing risks arising out of the Stelco Acquisition and may be unable to realize the anticipated financial and other benefits from proposed strategic partnerships and asset divestitures.
  • Our actual operating results may differ significantly from our guidance.
  • We may be subject to various lawsuits, claims, arbitrations or governmental proceedings that could result in significant expenditures.
  • Our operating expenses could increase significantly if the prices of raw materials, electrical power, fuel or other energy sources rise.
  • Our sales and competitive position depend on transporting our products to customers at competitive rates and in a timely manner, and our ability to optimize our operational footprint depends on predictably and cost effectively moving products and raw materials internally among our facilities.
  • The cost or time to implement a strategic or sustaining capital project may prove to be greater than originally anticipated.
  • Natural or human-caused disasters, weather conditions, disruption of energy, unanticipated geological conditions, equipment failures, infectious disease outbreaks and other unexpected events may lead our customers, our suppliers, or our facilities to curtail production or shut down operations.
  • A disruption in or failure of our IT systems, including those related to cybersecurity, could adversely affect our business operations, reputation and financial performance and could expose us to third-party liability.
  • We incur certain costs when production capacity is idled, as well as increased costs to resume production at previously idled facilities.
  • We may not have adequate insurance coverage for some business risks.
  • nuevoAs we and our stakeholders seek reduced carbon footprints and enhanced business sustainability, we face financial, regulatory, legal, and reputational risks and potential loss of business opportunities because our operations utilize carbon-based energy sources and produce GHG emissions.
  • To maintain consistent operational performance and foster growth in our businesses, we must maintain our social license to operate with our stakeholders.
  • We rely on estimates of our recoverable mineral reserves, which are complex due to geological characteristics of the properties and the number of assumptions made.
  • Defects in title or loss of any access rights or leasehold or option interests in mining properties could limit our ability to mine these properties or result in significant unanticipated costs.
  • We depend on our senior management team and other key employees, and the loss of these employees could adversely affect our businesses.
  • Our profitability could be adversely affected if we fail to maintain satisfactory labor relations.
  • Our expenditures for pension and OPEB obligations could be materially higher than we have predicted if our underlying assumptions differ from actual outcomes, there are regulatory changes or the funded status of the multiemployer plans that we participate in degrade.

1 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000764065-26-000025

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)