CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC.
CLFAcero integrado · BF-BOF + mineral propioactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $5.23B | 2.5% | $213.0M | 2026-07-23 | 0000764065-26-000100 |
| 2026Q1 | $4.92B | -1.7% | $46.0M | 2026-04-21 | 0000764065-26-000070 |
| 2025Q4 | $4.31B | -4.8% | $-59.0M | 2026-02-09 | 0000764065-26-000025 |
| 2025Q3 | $4.73B | -1.0% | $84.0M | 2025-10-22 | 0000764065-25-000149 |
| 2025Q2 | $4.93B | -4.3% | $-108.0M | 2025-07-23 | 0000764065-25-000124 |
| 2025Q1 | $4.63B | -8.6% | $-261.0M | 2025-05-08 | 0000764065-25-000103 |
| 2024Q4 | $4.33B | -6.3% | $-207.0M | 2025-02-25 | 0000764065-25-000058 |
| 2024Q3 | $4.57B | -2.3% | $-26.0M | 2024-11-05 | 0000764065-24-000206 |
| 2024Q2 | $5.09B | 3.2% | $234.0M | 2024-07-24 | 0000764065-24-000167 |
| 2024Q1 | $5.20B | 5.5% | $192.0M | 2024-04-25 | 0000764065-24-000108 |
| 2023Q4 | $5.11B | 2.9% | $117.0M | 2024-02-08 | 0000764065-24-000038 |
| 2023Q3 | $5.61B | 8.6% | $574.0M | 2023-10-25 | 0000764065-23-000162 |
| 2023Q2 | $5.98B | 10.8% | $730.0M | 2023-07-26 | 0000764065-23-000129 |
| 2023Q1 | $5.29B | 1.9% | $211.0M | 2023-04-26 | 0000764065-23-000083 |
| 2022Q4 | $5.04B | -1.2% | $64.0M | 2023-02-14 | 0000764065-23-000032 |
| 2022Q3 | $5.65B | 6.2% | $424.0M | 2022-10-26 | 0000764065-22-000154 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| steel_vs_ore primaria (a priori) | 60% | 37 | 0.162 |
| steel_ppi | 73% | 37 | 0.0038 |
| iron_ore | 49% | 37 | 0.6286 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 14851 | “Steel shipments by product: Hot-rolled steel5,899 4,326 36 % Cold-rolled steel2,389 2,286 5 % Coated steel4,791 4,730 1 % Stainless and electrical steel682 763 (11)% Plate899 880 2 % Slab and other st” | rechazado |
| 2019Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 28.83 | “Sales margin $ 28.83 $ 40.36 $ (11.53 ) (28.6 )%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 42.49 | “Sales margin $ 42.49 $ 47.67 $ (5.18 ) (10.9 )%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1171 | “AVERAGE SELLING PRICE PER TON OF STEEL PRODUCTS: $1,360 $1,171” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “scrap cost usd ton is not mentioned in the text” | rechazado |
| 2021Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 535 | “The price of busheling scrap, a necessary input for flat-rolled steel production in EAFs in the U.S., averaged $535 per long ton during the first quarter of 2021” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 14751 | “Total steel shipments by product14,751 15,886 (7)%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Our Mining and Pelletizing segment produces differentiated iron ore pellets that are customized for use in customers’ blast furnaces as part of the steelmaking process.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2018Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 38.17 | “Sales margin $ 38.17 $ 15.72 $ 22.45 142.8 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1374 | “The HRC index averaged $1,374 per net ton for the first six months of 2021” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 62.32 | “Cash cost of goods sold and operating expense rate1,2 62.32 59.30 3.02 5.1 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 795 | “The Fastmarkets AMM Cleveland busheling price increased from $580 per long ton at the beginning of the first quarter of 2022 to $795 per long ton for the most recently reported data.” | rechazado |
| 2022Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 127 | “The Platts 62% price averaged $127 per metric ton in the first nine months of 2022” | rechazado |
| 2021Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 571 | “The price of busheling scrap...averaged $571 per long ton during the first six months of 2021” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 93.81 | “Realized product revenue rate1 $ 93.81 $ 105.03 $ (11.22 ) (10.7 )%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 240 | “an increase in the average steel product selling price of $240 per net ton” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 434 | “The busheling price averaged $434 per long ton during the first quarter of 2026.” | rechazado |
| 2022Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 670 | “The Fastmarkets AMM Cleveland busheling price peaked at $795 per long ton in April 2022 before declining to $670 per long ton at the end of the second quarter.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 16229 | “Steel shipments by product: Hot-rolled steel6,484 5,593 16 % Cold-rolled steel2,382 2,524 (6)% Coated steel4,486 4,477 — % Stainless and electrical steel552 567 (3)% Plate863 755 14 % Slab and other s” | rechazado |
| 2023Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “Higher than historical imported pig iron costs should continue to support a higher HRC price.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 458 | “The busheling price averaged $458 per long ton during the second quarter of 2026.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 466 | “The busheling price averaged $466 per long ton during the second quarter of 2025, representing a 9% increase compared to the second quarter of 2024.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2024Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2019Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 108.89 | “Realized product revenue rate1 $ 108.89 $ 110.99 $ (2.10 ) (1.9 )%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 12100 | “The increase was primarily due to the addition of 12.1 million net tons of steel shipments from our Steelmaking segment resulting from the 2020 Acquisitions, along with an increase in the average stee” | rechazado |
| 2021Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1500 | “The HRC index averaged $1,500 per net ton for the first nine months of 2021” | rechazado |
| 2021Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1201 | “The HRC index averaged $1,201 per net ton for the first quarter of 2021” | rechazado |
| 2019Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 38 | “the market for pellets deteriorated rapidly during the second half of 2019, ending at a price of $38 per metric ton.” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 61.94 | “Cash cost of goods sold rate1,2 61.94 57.05 4.89 8.6 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 95.65 | “Realized product revenue rate1 $ 95.65 $ 105.65 $ (10.00 ) (9.5 )%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1005 | “AVERAGE SELLING PRICE PER TON OF STEEL PRODUCTS: $16,865$16,311—%(5)%4%—%$1,081$1,005” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “As we are fully integrated and have primarily a blast furnace footprint, increased prices for busheling scrap in the U.S. bolster our competitive advantage” | rechazado |
| 2018Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “We expect that the HBI production plant, once operational, will consume approximately 2.8 million long tons of our DR-grade pellets per year.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica steel_vs_ore y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 60% | 25 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 44% | 25 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 40% | 25 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 52% | 25 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
26 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-09, verbatim del documento. 3 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-25.
- The volatility of commodity prices, including steel, scrap metal and iron ore, directly and indirectly affects our ability to generate revenue, maintain stable cash flows and fund our operations.
- We sell a significant portion of our steel products to the automotive market, and fluctuations or changes in the automotive market could adversely affect our business operations and financial performance.
- nuevoGlobal steelmaking overcapacity and overproduction, as well as steel imports, could lead to lower or more volatile global steel prices, directly or indirectly impacting our profitability.
- Severe financial hardship or bankruptcy of one or more of our major customers or key vendors could adversely affect our business operations and financial performance.
- U.S. government actions and other countries’ reactions in respect of trade agreements and treaties, laws, regulations, or policies affecting trade could lead to lower or more volatile global steel prices, impacting our profitability.
- We are subject to extensive governmental regulation, which imposes potentially significant costs and liabilities on us. Future laws and regulations or the way they are interpreted and enforced could increase these costs and liabilities or limit our ability to produce our raw materials and products.
- Our operations use hazardous materials and inadvertently may impact the environment, which could result in material liabilities to us.
- We may be unable to obtain, maintain, renew or comply with permits and licenses necessary for our operations or be required to provide additional financial assurances, which could reduce our production, cash flows, profitability and available liquidity.
- nuevoWe continue to face ongoing risks arising out of the Stelco Acquisition and may be unable to realize the anticipated financial and other benefits from proposed strategic partnerships and asset divestitures.
- Our actual operating results may differ significantly from our guidance.
- We may be subject to various lawsuits, claims, arbitrations or governmental proceedings that could result in significant expenditures.
- Our operating expenses could increase significantly if the prices of raw materials, electrical power, fuel or other energy sources rise.
- Our sales and competitive position depend on transporting our products to customers at competitive rates and in a timely manner, and our ability to optimize our operational footprint depends on predictably and cost effectively moving products and raw materials internally among our facilities.
- The cost or time to implement a strategic or sustaining capital project may prove to be greater than originally anticipated.
- Natural or human-caused disasters, weather conditions, disruption of energy, unanticipated geological conditions, equipment failures, infectious disease outbreaks and other unexpected events may lead our customers, our suppliers, or our facilities to curtail production or shut down operations.
- A disruption in or failure of our IT systems, including those related to cybersecurity, could adversely affect our business operations, reputation and financial performance and could expose us to third-party liability.
- We incur certain costs when production capacity is idled, as well as increased costs to resume production at previously idled facilities.
- We may not have adequate insurance coverage for some business risks.
- nuevoAs we and our stakeholders seek reduced carbon footprints and enhanced business sustainability, we face financial, regulatory, legal, and reputational risks and potential loss of business opportunities because our operations utilize carbon-based energy sources and produce GHG emissions.
- To maintain consistent operational performance and foster growth in our businesses, we must maintain our social license to operate with our stakeholders.
- We rely on estimates of our recoverable mineral reserves, which are complex due to geological characteristics of the properties and the number of assumptions made.
- Defects in title or loss of any access rights or leasehold or option interests in mining properties could limit our ability to mine these properties or result in significant unanticipated costs.
- We depend on our senior management team and other key employees, and the loss of these employees could adversely affect our businesses.
- Our profitability could be adversely affected if we fail to maintain satisfactory labor relations.
- Our expenditures for pension and OPEB obligations could be materially higher than we have predicted if our underlying assumptions differ from actual outcomes, there are regulatory changes or the funded status of the multiemployer plans that we participate in degrade.
… 1 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000764065-26-000025