COMMERCIAL METALS Co
CMCAcero EAF · largos + reciclajeactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $2.48B | 18.3% | $340.2M | 2026-06-29 | 0000022444-26-000041 |
| 2026Q1 | $2.13B | 18.2% | $257.3M | 2026-03-31 | 0000022444-26-000031 |
| 2025Q4 | $2.12B | 19.2% | $284.2M | 2026-01-08 | 0000022444-26-000010 |
| 2025Q3 | $2.11B | 18.6% | $286.2M | 2025-10-16 | 0000022444-25-000138 |
| 2025Q2 | $2.02B | 14.8% | $196.5M | 2025-06-24 | 0000022444-25-000098 |
| 2025Q1 | $1.75B | 12.5% | $122.6M | 2025-03-25 | 0000022444-25-000060 |
| 2024Q4 | $1.91B | 16.1% | $200.5M | 2025-01-06 | 0000022444-25-000013 |
| 2024Q3 | $2.00B | 16.2% | $224.8M | 2024-10-17 | 0000022444-24-000140 |
| 2024Q2 | $2.08B | 16.4% | $243.1M | 2024-06-25 | 0000022444-24-000089 |
| 2024Q1 | $1.85B | 16.0% | n/d | 2024-03-26 | 0000022444-24-000069 |
| 2023Q4 | $2.00B | 19.9% | $305.6M | 2024-01-08 | 0000022444-24-000017 |
| 2023Q3 | $2.21B | 19.2% | $311.2M | 2023-10-12 | 0000022444-23-000126 |
| 2023Q2 | $2.34B | 20.6% | $374.1M | 2023-06-22 | 0000022444-23-000077 |
| 2023Q1 | $2.02B | 19.6% | n/d | 2023-03-23 | 0000022444-23-000058 |
| 2022Q4 | $2.23B | 22.8% | $402.7M | 2023-01-09 | 0000022444-23-000014 |
| 2022Q3 | $2.41B | 21.1% | $403.0M | 2022-10-13 | 0000022444-22-000140 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| metal_spread primaria (a priori) | 62% | 37 | 0.0939 |
| steel_ppi | 46% | 37 | 0.7443 |
| scrap_ppi | 41% | 37 | 0.9061 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 1000 | “Each of these segments realized increases in tons shipped and average selling prices.” | rechazado |
| 2021Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “Net sales in our North America segment increased in 2021 compared to 2020, primarily due to a year-over-year increase in steel products average selling prices and raw materials average selling prices,” | rechazado |
| 2017Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1000 | “The increase in average scrap selling price also led to an increased average selling price for our Americas Mills segment” | rechazado |
| 2025Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “metal margin is the difference between the average selling price per ton of rebar, merchant bar and other steel products and the cost of ferrous scrap per ton utilized by our steel mills to produce th” | rechazado |
| 2024Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 534 | “Steel products metal margin per ton534 628” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The change in net earnings in the three months ended February 28, 2025, compared to the corresponding period, was due to compression in steel and downstream products metal margins in our North America” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The change in net earnings in the three months ended May 31, 2026, compared to the corresponding period, was primarily due to expansion in steel products metal margins within our North America Steel G” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 288 | “Cost of ferrous scrap utilized 288 245 272 223” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The significant expansion of steel products metal margin per ton in both of our segments and raw materials margin over purchase cost per ton in our North America segment.” | rechazado |
| 2021Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “Selling prices for steel products and raw materials outpaced the rising input costs of ferrous scrap utilized in our steel mill operations and the price paid to purchase ferrous and nonferrous scrap i” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “The growth in net sales is largely attributable to rising selling prices across all major product lines in both of our segments for the three and nine months ended May 31, 2022, compared to the corres” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 571 | “Average price (per short ton) Total sales $ 571 $ 524 $ 561 $ 511” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 303 | “Metal margin 303 274” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 325 | “Cost of ferrous scrap utilized per ton325 428” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 618 | “Average selling price per ton Steel products$618 $681” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 528 | “Average price (per ton) Total sales $ 528 $ 560” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 612 | “Average price (per short ton) Total selling price $ 612 $ 526” | auditado ✓ |
| 2017Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 283 | “Metal margin 283 279 289 288” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 309 | “Metal margin 309 283” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 372 | “Cost of ferrous scrap utilized 303 288 305 272 Metal margin 374 283 372 289” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 380 | “Steel products metal margin per ton380 397” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The change in net earnings in the three months ended February 28, 2026, compared to the corresponding period, was primarily due to expansion in steel products metal margins within our North America St” | rechazado |
| 2021Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 3 | “Cost of ferrous scrap utilized per ton$3” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “Cost of raw materials per ton$619 $908” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “The change in net earnings in the three months ended February 28, 2026, compared to the corresponding period, was primarily due to expansion in steel products metal margins within our North America St” | rechazado |
| 2020Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 606 | “Average price (per ton) Total selling price$606 $670 $604 $674” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 314 | “Average selling price (per short ton) Ferrous $ 314 $ 264” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 0 | “Net sales increased $377.6 million, or 22%, for the three months ended February 28, 2026, compared to the corresponding period.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “We focus on changes in average selling price per ton and tons shipped compared to the corresponding period for each of our vertically integrated product categories as these are the two variables that ” | rechazado |
| 2020Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 238 | “Cost of ferrous scrap utilized per ton$238 $284” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | -1 | “compression in steel products metal margins in both our North America Steel Group segment and Europe Steel Group segment, driven by decreases in steel products average selling prices, while the cost o” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 695 | “Steel products metal margin per ton695 548” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | -11 | “declining steel products average selling prices per ton” | rechazado |
| 2023Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “the cost of ferrous scrap utilized per ton remained relatively flat” | rechazado |
| 2025Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “changes in metal margins of our steel products and downstream products period-over-period in the North America Steel Group and Europe Steel Group segments are a consistent area of focus for our Compan” | rechazado |
| 2025Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 400 | “The decrease in net earnings for the three months ended May 31, 2025, compared to the corresponding period, was primarily due to compression in steel and downstream products metal margins within our N” | rechazado |
| 2019Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 1460 | “Shipped 1,460 1,500” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 346 | “Steel products metal margin per ton346 400” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 266 | “Cost of ferrous scrap utilized per ton$266 $226” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 226 | “Average ferrous selling prices per ton decreased approximately 15% and 24%, respectively” | rechazado |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica metal_spread y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 64% | 25 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 60% | 25 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 72% | 25 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 76% | 25 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_selling_price_usd_ton (MD&A verificado) vs steel_ppi — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
36 factores del 10-K de 2025-10-16, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2024-10-17.
- Scrap and other inputs for our business are subject to significant price fluctuations and limited availability, which may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- We rely on the availability of large amounts of electricity and natural gas. Disruptions in delivery or substantial increases in energy costs, including crude oil prices, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- We may encounter labor disputes and shortages for skilled labor and/or qualified employees in operational positions, which could adversely impact our operations.
- The loss of, or inability to hire, key employees may adversely affect our ability to successfully manage our operations and meet our strategic objectives.
- Our business, financial condition and results of operations may be adversely impacted by the effects of inflation.
- We may have difficulty competing with companies that have a lower cost structure or access to greater financial resources.
- Operating and startup risks, as well as market risks associated with the commissioning of our micro mills, could prevent us from realizing anticipated benefits and could result in a loss of all or a substantial part of our investments.
- Our mills require continual capital investments that we may not be able to sustain.
- Unexpected equipment failures may lead to production curtailments or shutdowns, which may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- We are vulnerable to the economic conditions in the regions in which our operations are concentrated.
- Information technology interruptions and breaches in data security could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Increasing attention to ESG matters, including any targets or other ESG, environmental justice or regulatory initiatives, could result in additional costs or risks or adverse impacts on our business.
- We are subject to litigation, potential liability claims and contract disputes, and may become subject to additional litigation, claims and disputes in the future, any of which could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Potential limitations on our ability to access credit, or the ability of our customers and suppliers to access credit, may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition
- Geopolitical conditions, including political turmoil and volatility, regional conflicts, terrorism and war have caused disruptions in the global economy, energy supplies and raw materials, which may continue to negatively impact our business and operations.
- The potential impact of our customers' non-compliance with existing commercial contracts and commitments, due to insolvency or for any other reason, may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- The agreements governing our notes and our other debt contain financial covenants and impose restrictions on our business.
- We may not be able to successfully identify, consummate or integrate acquisitions, and acquisitions may adversely affect our financial leverage.
- Goodwill or other indefinite-lived intangible asset impairment charges in the future could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Impairment of long-lived assets in the future could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Competition from other materials may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Our operations present significant risk of injury or death.
- Our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, liquidity and stock price may be adversely affected by global public health epidemics.
- Fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Operating internationally carries risks and uncertainties which could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
… 11 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000022444-25-000138