CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP

CRSSpecialty metals · aceros especialesactualizado 2026-07-28
Precio
$560.43
IV prob-weighted
$218.21
Gap
-61%
TTM EBITDA≈
$790.9M
Net debt
$395.6M
Margen (percentil hist.)
97%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 8.61–19.74× EV/EBITDA (mediana 14.78×, 1510 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 31.0%, percentil 97% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata nickel anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 56% (n=36, p=0.3089): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+4.4% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -14 bps alineados a 20d (hit 44%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -61%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia42/51 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (33 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 5% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 95% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.243: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 58%, OLS commodity 46%, OLS+coste 42%, signo+coste 62%. Gana signo+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 22 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2025-08-12, 0 nuevos frente al de 2024-08-13. Concentracion: operacional 7, coste insumos 6, demanda competencia 4. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$811.5M31.0%$223.2M2026-04-290000017843-26-000014
2025Q4$728.0M30.0%$191.4M2026-01-290000017843-26-000009
2025Q3$733.7M29.5%$189.3M2025-10-230000017843-25-000029
2025Q2$755.6M28.3%$187.0M2025-08-120000017843-25-000021
2025Q1$727.0M27.6%$173.2M2025-04-240000017843-25-000011
2024Q4$676.9M26.2%$153.2M2025-01-300000017843-25-000003
2024Q3$717.6M24.6%$147.4M2024-10-240000017843-24-000017
2024Q2$798.6M23.9%$142.1M2024-08-130000017843-24-000014
2024Q1$684.9M21.5%$110.0M2024-05-010000017843-24-000006
2023Q4$624.2M19.6%$103.4M2024-01-250000017843-24-000003
2023Q3$651.9M19.0%$102.1M2023-10-260000017843-23-000025
2023Q2$1.84B6.5%$96.4M2023-08-110000017843-23-000021
2023Q1$690.1M13.6%$72.1M2023-04-270000017843-23-000009
2022Q4$579.1M12.1%$55.1M2023-01-260000017843-23-000005
2022Q3$522.9M10.5%$40.6M2022-10-270000017843-22-000022
2022Q2$563.7M12.8%$57.5M2022-08-150000017843-22-000019

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube nickel 4.4% QTD · a 2026-07-29

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
nickel primaria (a priori)56%360.3089
steel_ppi42%360.8785

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)

Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)

TrimestreMétricaValorCita textualEstado
2018Q3pounds_sold_k62714Specialty Alloys Operations 62,714 61,190 1,524 2 %rechazado
2024Q4avg_selling_price_usd_lb0rechazado
2022Q2pounds_sold_k187754Specialty Alloys Operations187,754 166,942 20,812 12 %rechazado
2025Q4pounds_sold_k46836Pounds sold Three Months Ended December 31, 2025 46,836rechazado
2024Q2pounds_sold_k208154Pounds soldFiscal YearDecrease%Decrease (in thousands) 20242023 Specialty Alloys Operations208,154 212,050 (3,896)(2)%auditado ✓
2023Q4tons_shipped_k0rechazado
2023Q2pounds_sold_k212050Specialty Alloys Operations212,050 187,754 24,296 13 %rechazado
2024Q4pounds_sold_k44714Pounds soldThree Months EndedDecember 31,Pounds(Decrease)Increase%(Decrease)Increase (in thousands) 20242023 Specialty Alloys Operations44,714 50,114 (5,400)(11)%auditado ✓
2017Q4pounds_sold_k60080Specialty Alloys Operations 60,080 51,314 8,766 17 %rechazado
2022Q1pounds_sold_k49740Consolidated pounds sold49,740 37,770 11,970 32 %auditado ✓
2025Q2pounds_sold_k186270Pounds soldFiscal YearIncrease(Decrease)%Increase(Decrease) (in thousands) 20252024 Specialty Alloys Operations186,270 208,154 (21,884)(11)%auditado ✓
2024Q1pounds_sold_k-3256Intersegment(3,256)rechazado
2022Q4avg_selling_price_usd_lb998Net sales for the quarter ended December 31, 2022 for the SAO segment increased 50 percent to $495.8 million, as compared with $330.8 million in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding surcharge revenurechazado
2026Q1avg_selling_price_usd_lb14.3Net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2026, for the SAO segment increased 14 percent to $735.1 million, as compared with $642.9 million in the three months ended March 31, 2025.rechazado
2023Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton1072.3Net sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 for the SAO segment increased 44 percent to $603.4 million, as compared with $418.0 million in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding surcharge revenue, rechazado
2025Q4avg_selling_price_usd_lb14.2Net sales for the three months ended December 31, 2025 for the SAO segment increased 10 percent to $661.6 millionrechazado
2019Q1avg_selling_price_usd_lb0rechazado
2025Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton14200The higher sales are driven by realized price increases and improving product mix in the Aerospace and Defense and Energy end-use marketsrechazado
2021Q3pounds_sold_k2372Performance Engineered Products *2,372 1,466rechazado
2024Q2avg_selling_price_usd_lb11Specialty Alloys Operations Segment Net sales in fiscal year 2024 for the SAO segment increased 10 percent to $2,443.8 million, as compared with $2,213.6 million in fiscal year 2023. Excluding surcharrechazado
2023Q4pounds_sold_k50114Pounds sold, in thousands) 2023 2022 Specialty Alloys Operations50,114 49,442 672 1 %auditado ✓
2019Q4pounds_sold_k3424Performance Engineered Products * 3,424 3,300 124 4 %rechazado
2019Q3pounds_sold_k62298Consolidated pounds sold 62,298 65,616 (3,318 ) (5 )%auditado ✓
2023Q3avg_selling_price_usd_lb0rechazado
2022Q4tons_shipped_k0rechazado
2023Q1avg_selling_price_usd_lb1072.3Net sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 for the SAO segment increased 44 percent to $603.4 million, as compared with $418.0 million in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding surcharge revenue, rechazado
2020Q2pounds_sold_k221784Pounds sold, in thousands) 2020 2019 Specialty Alloys Operations 221,784 256,360 (34,576 ) (13 )%auditado ✓
2023Q1pounds_sold_k56516Specialty Alloys Operations56,516 49,872 6,644 13 %rechazado
2021Q2pounds_sold_k7936Performance Engineered Products *7,936 12,260rechazado
2018Q4pounds_sold_k61668Specialty Alloys Operations 61,668 60,080 1,588 3 %rechazado
2018Q1pounds_sold_k66866Specialty Alloys Operations 66,866 61,006 5,860 10 %rechazado
2022Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton0rechazado
2023Q3pounds_sold_k49992Specialty Alloys Operations49,992 44,562 5,430 12 %rechazado
2020Q1pounds_sold_k3202Performance Engineered Products * 3,202 3,540 (338 ) (10 )%rechazado
2022Q4pounds_sold_k49442Pounds sold, in thousands) 2022 2021 Specialty Alloys Operations 49,442 43,248auditado ✓
2023Q4avg_selling_price_usd_lb1038.5Net sales for the three months ended December 31, 2023 for the SAO segment increased 11 percent to $549.4 million, as compared with $495.8 million in the three months ended December 31, 2022. Excludinrechazado
2018Q2pounds_sold_k258326Specialty Alloys Operations 258,326 227,744 30,582 13 %rechazado
2023Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton0rechazado
2021Q4pounds_sold_k43248Specialty Alloys Operations43,248 38,602 4,646 12 %rechazado
2026Q1pounds_sold_k960Intersegment(960)(672)(288)(43)%rechazado

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica nickel y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres

R² del commodity
5%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
95%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.24
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)58%24
OLS sobre el commodity46%24
OLS + momentum de coste42%24
Signo + momentum de coste mejor63%24

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+25 bps
hit 58% · n=36
5d tras filing
-6 bps
hit 47% · n=36
20d tras filing
-14 bps
hit 44% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

22 factores del 10-K de 2025-08-12, verbatim del documento. 0 son nuevos frente al de 2024-08-13.

operacional 7coste insumos 6demanda competencia 4regulatorio 4laboral 3financiero 2precio commodity 1geopolitico 1ciberseguridad 1
  • The demand for certain products we produce may be cyclical.
  • A significant portion of our sales represents products sold to customers in the commercial aerospace, defense and energy markets. The cyclicality of those markets can adversely affect our current business and our expansion objectives.
  • Any significant delay or inability to successfully expand our operations in a timely and cost-effective manner could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
  • Periods of reduced demand and excess supply as well as the availability of substitute lower cost materials can adversely affect our ability to price and sell our products at the profitability levels we require to be successful.
  • We rely on third parties to supply certain raw materials and supplies that are critical to the manufacture of our products and we may not be able to access alternative sources of these raw materials if the suppliers are unwilling or unable to meet our demand.
  • We provide benefits to active and retired employees throughout most of our Company, most of which are not covered by insurance; and thus, our financial condition can be adversely affected if our investment returns are insufficient to meet these obligations.
  • The extensive environmental, health and safety regulatory regimes applicable to our manufacturing operations create potential exposure to significant liabilities.
  • Product liability and product quality claims could adversely affect our operating results.
  • Our business subjects us to risks of litigation claims, as a routine matter, and this risk increases the potential for a loss that might not be covered by insurance.
  • A portion of our workforce is covered by collective bargaining agreements and union attempts to organize our other employees may cause work interruptions or stoppages.
  • Our manufacturing processes are complex and depend upon critical, high cost equipment for which there may be only limited or no production alternatives.
  • A significant portion of our manufacturing and production facilities are located in Reading and Latrobe, Pennsylvania and Athens, Alabama, which increases our exposure to significant disruption to our business as a result of unforeseeable developments in these geographic areas.
  • We rely on third parties to supply energy consumed at each of our energy-intensive production facilities.
  • We consider acquisitions, joint ventures and other business combination opportunities, as well as possible business unit dispositions, as part of our overall business strategy, that involve uncertainties and potential risks that we cannot predict or anticipate fully.
  • Regulations related to conflict minerals could adversely impact our business.
  • Our business may be impacted by external factors that we may not be able to control.
  • Our international operations and global sales expose us to various risks including the impact of tariffs, which may adversely affect our business.
  • We value most of our inventory using the LIFO method, which could be repealed resulting in adverse effects on our cash flows and financial condition.
  • We depend on the ability to hire and retain a qualified workforce and key personnel.
  • Cybersecurity attacks and other security breaches or failures in functionality of our information technology ("IT") and computer systems could adversely impact our financial condition and results of operations and compromise the integrity of confidential data.
  • The carrying value of goodwill and other long-lived assets may not be recoverable.
  • Our ability to produce timely and accurate financial statements may be impacted if we fail to maintain an effective system of disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting.

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000017843-25-000021

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)