CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP
CRSSpecialty metals · aceros especialesactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $811.5M | 31.0% | $223.2M | 2026-04-29 | 0000017843-26-000014 |
| 2025Q4 | $728.0M | 30.0% | $191.4M | 2026-01-29 | 0000017843-26-000009 |
| 2025Q3 | $733.7M | 29.5% | $189.3M | 2025-10-23 | 0000017843-25-000029 |
| 2025Q2 | $755.6M | 28.3% | $187.0M | 2025-08-12 | 0000017843-25-000021 |
| 2025Q1 | $727.0M | 27.6% | $173.2M | 2025-04-24 | 0000017843-25-000011 |
| 2024Q4 | $676.9M | 26.2% | $153.2M | 2025-01-30 | 0000017843-25-000003 |
| 2024Q3 | $717.6M | 24.6% | $147.4M | 2024-10-24 | 0000017843-24-000017 |
| 2024Q2 | $798.6M | 23.9% | $142.1M | 2024-08-13 | 0000017843-24-000014 |
| 2024Q1 | $684.9M | 21.5% | $110.0M | 2024-05-01 | 0000017843-24-000006 |
| 2023Q4 | $624.2M | 19.6% | $103.4M | 2024-01-25 | 0000017843-24-000003 |
| 2023Q3 | $651.9M | 19.0% | $102.1M | 2023-10-26 | 0000017843-23-000025 |
| 2023Q2 | $1.84B | 6.5% | $96.4M | 2023-08-11 | 0000017843-23-000021 |
| 2023Q1 | $690.1M | 13.6% | $72.1M | 2023-04-27 | 0000017843-23-000009 |
| 2022Q4 | $579.1M | 12.1% | $55.1M | 2023-01-26 | 0000017843-23-000005 |
| 2022Q3 | $522.9M | 10.5% | $40.6M | 2022-10-27 | 0000017843-22-000022 |
| 2022Q2 | $563.7M | 12.8% | $57.5M | 2022-08-15 | 0000017843-22-000019 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — nickel 4.4% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| nickel primaria (a priori) | 56% | 36 | 0.3089 |
| steel_ppi | 42% | 36 | 0.8785 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018Q3 | pounds_sold_k | 62714 | “Specialty Alloys Operations 62,714 61,190 1,524 2 %” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2022Q2 | pounds_sold_k | 187754 | “Specialty Alloys Operations187,754 166,942 20,812 12 %” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | pounds_sold_k | 46836 | “Pounds sold Three Months Ended December 31, 2025 46,836” | rechazado |
| 2024Q2 | pounds_sold_k | 208154 | “Pounds soldFiscal YearDecrease%Decrease (in thousands) 20242023 Specialty Alloys Operations208,154 212,050 (3,896)(2)%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | pounds_sold_k | 212050 | “Specialty Alloys Operations212,050 187,754 24,296 13 %” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | pounds_sold_k | 44714 | “Pounds soldThree Months EndedDecember 31,Pounds(Decrease)Increase%(Decrease)Increase (in thousands) 20242023 Specialty Alloys Operations44,714 50,114 (5,400)(11)%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2017Q4 | pounds_sold_k | 60080 | “Specialty Alloys Operations 60,080 51,314 8,766 17 %” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | pounds_sold_k | 49740 | “Consolidated pounds sold49,740 37,770 11,970 32 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q2 | pounds_sold_k | 186270 | “Pounds soldFiscal YearIncrease(Decrease)%Increase(Decrease) (in thousands) 20252024 Specialty Alloys Operations186,270 208,154 (21,884)(11)%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | pounds_sold_k | -3256 | “Intersegment(3,256)” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 998 | “Net sales for the quarter ended December 31, 2022 for the SAO segment increased 50 percent to $495.8 million, as compared with $330.8 million in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding surcharge revenu” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 14.3 | “Net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2026, for the SAO segment increased 14 percent to $735.1 million, as compared with $642.9 million in the three months ended March 31, 2025.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1072.3 | “Net sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 for the SAO segment increased 44 percent to $603.4 million, as compared with $418.0 million in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding surcharge revenue, ” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 14.2 | “Net sales for the three months ended December 31, 2025 for the SAO segment increased 10 percent to $661.6 million” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 14200 | “The higher sales are driven by realized price increases and improving product mix in the Aerospace and Defense and Energy end-use markets” | rechazado |
| 2021Q3 | pounds_sold_k | 2372 | “Performance Engineered Products *2,372 1,466” | rechazado |
| 2024Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 11 | “Specialty Alloys Operations Segment Net sales in fiscal year 2024 for the SAO segment increased 10 percent to $2,443.8 million, as compared with $2,213.6 million in fiscal year 2023. Excluding surchar” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | pounds_sold_k | 50114 | “Pounds sold, in thousands) 2023 2022 Specialty Alloys Operations50,114 49,442 672 1 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q4 | pounds_sold_k | 3424 | “Performance Engineered Products * 3,424 3,300 124 4 %” | rechazado |
| 2019Q3 | pounds_sold_k | 62298 | “Consolidated pounds sold 62,298 65,616 (3,318 ) (5 )%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2023Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 1072.3 | “Net sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 for the SAO segment increased 44 percent to $603.4 million, as compared with $418.0 million in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding surcharge revenue, ” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | pounds_sold_k | 221784 | “Pounds sold, in thousands) 2020 2019 Specialty Alloys Operations 221,784 256,360 (34,576 ) (13 )%” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q1 | pounds_sold_k | 56516 | “Specialty Alloys Operations56,516 49,872 6,644 13 %” | rechazado |
| 2021Q2 | pounds_sold_k | 7936 | “Performance Engineered Products *7,936 12,260” | rechazado |
| 2018Q4 | pounds_sold_k | 61668 | “Specialty Alloys Operations 61,668 60,080 1,588 3 %” | rechazado |
| 2018Q1 | pounds_sold_k | 66866 | “Specialty Alloys Operations 66,866 61,006 5,860 10 %” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2023Q3 | pounds_sold_k | 49992 | “Specialty Alloys Operations49,992 44,562 5,430 12 %” | rechazado |
| 2020Q1 | pounds_sold_k | 3202 | “Performance Engineered Products * 3,202 3,540 (338 ) (10 )%” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | pounds_sold_k | 49442 | “Pounds sold, in thousands) 2022 2021 Specialty Alloys Operations 49,442 43,248” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_lb | 1038.5 | “Net sales for the three months ended December 31, 2023 for the SAO segment increased 11 percent to $549.4 million, as compared with $495.8 million in the three months ended December 31, 2022. Excludin” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | pounds_sold_k | 258326 | “Specialty Alloys Operations 258,326 227,744 30,582 13 %” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2021Q4 | pounds_sold_k | 43248 | “Specialty Alloys Operations43,248 38,602 4,646 12 %” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | pounds_sold_k | 960 | “Intersegment(960)(672)(288)(43)%” | rechazado |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica nickel y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 58% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 46% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 42% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 63% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
22 factores del 10-K de 2025-08-12, verbatim del documento. 0 son nuevos frente al de 2024-08-13.
- The demand for certain products we produce may be cyclical.
- A significant portion of our sales represents products sold to customers in the commercial aerospace, defense and energy markets. The cyclicality of those markets can adversely affect our current business and our expansion objectives.
- Any significant delay or inability to successfully expand our operations in a timely and cost-effective manner could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
- Periods of reduced demand and excess supply as well as the availability of substitute lower cost materials can adversely affect our ability to price and sell our products at the profitability levels we require to be successful.
- We rely on third parties to supply certain raw materials and supplies that are critical to the manufacture of our products and we may not be able to access alternative sources of these raw materials if the suppliers are unwilling or unable to meet our demand.
- We provide benefits to active and retired employees throughout most of our Company, most of which are not covered by insurance; and thus, our financial condition can be adversely affected if our investment returns are insufficient to meet these obligations.
- The extensive environmental, health and safety regulatory regimes applicable to our manufacturing operations create potential exposure to significant liabilities.
- Product liability and product quality claims could adversely affect our operating results.
- Our business subjects us to risks of litigation claims, as a routine matter, and this risk increases the potential for a loss that might not be covered by insurance.
- A portion of our workforce is covered by collective bargaining agreements and union attempts to organize our other employees may cause work interruptions or stoppages.
- Our manufacturing processes are complex and depend upon critical, high cost equipment for which there may be only limited or no production alternatives.
- A significant portion of our manufacturing and production facilities are located in Reading and Latrobe, Pennsylvania and Athens, Alabama, which increases our exposure to significant disruption to our business as a result of unforeseeable developments in these geographic areas.
- We rely on third parties to supply energy consumed at each of our energy-intensive production facilities.
- We consider acquisitions, joint ventures and other business combination opportunities, as well as possible business unit dispositions, as part of our overall business strategy, that involve uncertainties and potential risks that we cannot predict or anticipate fully.
- Regulations related to conflict minerals could adversely impact our business.
- Our business may be impacted by external factors that we may not be able to control.
- Our international operations and global sales expose us to various risks including the impact of tariffs, which may adversely affect our business.
- We value most of our inventory using the LIFO method, which could be repealed resulting in adverse effects on our cash flows and financial condition.
- We depend on the ability to hire and retain a qualified workforce and key personnel.
- Cybersecurity attacks and other security breaches or failures in functionality of our information technology ("IT") and computer systems could adversely impact our financial condition and results of operations and compromise the integrity of confidential data.
- The carrying value of goodwill and other long-lived assets may not be recoverable.
- Our ability to produce timely and accurate financial statements may be impacted if we fail to maintain an effective system of disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000017843-25-000021