Corteva, Inc.

CTVAInsumos agricolas · semilla y proteccionactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$76.04
IV prob-weighted
$74.29
Gap
-2%
TTM EBITDA≈
$6.44B
Net debt
$-683.0M
Margen (percentil hist.)
97%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 6.62–8.66× EV/EBITDA (mediana 7.59×, 1757 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 57.4%, percentil 97% de su historia (34 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata corn anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 73% (n=33, p=0.0068): señal operativa utilizable. [sector_nowcast.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +76 bps alineados a 20d (hit 53%, n=32), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -2%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 22% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 78% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.067: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 71%, OLS commodity 76%, OLS+coste 67%, signo+coste 71%. Gana OLS commodity: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 25 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-12, 2 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-14. Concentracion: operacional 10, regulatorio 6, demanda competencia 5. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 34)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$6.38B57.4%$2.84B2026-07-310001755672-26-000025
2026Q1$4.91B51.6%$1.95B2026-05-060001755672-26-000010
2025Q4$3.91B42.4%$1.10B2026-02-120001755672-26-000004
2025Q3$2.62B37.2%$549.0M2025-11-050001755672-25-000022
2025Q2$6.46B54.6%$2.67B2025-08-070001755672-25-000017
2025Q1$4.42B47.0%$1.62B2025-05-080001755672-25-000011
2024Q4$3.98B37.3%$1.05B2025-02-140001755672-25-000005
2024Q3$2.33B32.7%$396.0M2024-11-070001755672-24-000024
2024Q2$6.11B52.3%$2.45B2024-08-010001755672-24-000019
2024Q1$4.49B43.2%$1.51B2024-05-020001755672-24-000013
2023Q4$3.71B36.2%$918.0M2024-02-080001755672-24-000004
2023Q3$2.59B36.4%$580.0M2023-11-090001755672-23-000025
2023Q2$6.04B48.1%$2.17B2023-08-040001755672-23-000018
2023Q1$4.88B43.3%$1.67B2023-05-040001755672-23-000011
2022Q4$3.83B34.4%n/d2023-02-090001755672-23-000005
2022Q3$2.78B32.3%n/d2022-11-040001755672-22-000026

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
corn primaria (a priori)73%330.0068
soybean64%330.0814

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica corn y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 33 trimestres

R² del commodity
22%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
78%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.07
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)71%21
OLS sobre el commodity mejor76%21
OLS + momentum de coste67%21
Signo + momentum de coste71%21

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+39 bps
hit 64% · n=33
5d tras filing
-63 bps
hit 47% · n=32
20d tras filing
+76 bps
hit 53% · n=32

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

25 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-12, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-14.

operacional 10regulatorio 6demanda competencia 5financiero 4coste insumos 3geopolitico 2clima agua 1ciberseguridad 1precio commodity 1
  • Corteva may not be able to obtain or maintain the necessary regulatory approvals for some of its products, including its seed and crop protection products, which could restrict its ability to sell those products in some markets.
  • The successful development and commercialization of Corteva's pipeline products will be necessary for Corteva's growth.
  • The degree of public understanding and acceptance or perceived public acceptance of Corteva’s biotechnology and other agricultural products and technologies can affect Corteva’s sales and results of operations by affecting planting approvals, regulatory requirements and customer purchase decisions.
  • Corteva’s business is subject to various competition and antitrust, rules and regulations around the world, and as the size of its business grows, scrutiny of its business by legislators and regulators in these areas may intensify.
  • Changes in agricultural and related policies of governments and international organizations may prove unfavorable.
  • Climate change and unpredictable seasonal and weather factors could impact Corteva’s sales and earnings.
  • Corteva participates in an industry that is highly competitive and has undergone consolidation, which could increase competitive pressures.
  • nuevoRecent funding and staff reductions, including at the EPA, the USDA, the FDA and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services ("HHS"), could hinder our ability to receive timely regulatory approvals.
  • Corteva’s sales to its customers may be adversely affected should a company successfully establish an intermediary platform for the sale of Corteva’s products or otherwise position itself between Corteva and its customers.
  • Our business, financial condition and results of operations could be materially affected by disruptions in the global economy caused by geopolitical and military conflicts.
  • Volatility in Corteva’s input costs, which include raw materials and production costs, could have a significant impact on Corteva’s business, results of operations and financial condition.
  • Corteva’s operations outside the United States are subject to risks and restrictions, which could negatively affect Corteva’s business, results of operations and financial condition.
  • Corteva’s business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected by industrial espionage and other disruptions to its supply chain, information technology or network systems.
  • Corteva is dependent on its relationships or contracts with third parties with respect to certain of its raw materials or licenses and commercialization.
  • Corteva’s customers may be unable to pay their debts to Corteva, which could adversely affect Corteva’s results.
  • Failure to effectively manage acquisitions, divestitures, strategic investments, restructurings, cost savings initiatives and other portfolio actions may not have the results anticipated.
  • Corteva’s liquidity, business, results of operations and financial condition could be impaired if it is unable to raise capital through the capital markets or short-term debt borrowings.
  • Increases in pension and other post-employment benefit plan funding obligations may adversely affect Corteva’s results of operations, liquidity or financial condition.
  • Global or regional health pandemics or epidemics could negatively impact the company's business, financial condition and results of operations.
  • Sentiment towards sustainability matters could adversely affect our stock price, results of operations, and access to capital.
  • Enforcing Corteva’s intellectual property rights, or defending against intellectual property claims asserted by others, could materially affect Corteva’s business, results of operations and financial condition.
  • Corteva’s business may be adversely affected by the availability of counterfeit products.
  • Restrictions under the intellectual property cross-license agreements limit Corteva’s ability to develop and commercialize certain products and services and/or prosecute, maintain and enforce certain intellectual property.
  • nuevoThe Corteva Separation and related transactions may expose Corteva to potential liabilities arising out of state and federal fraudulent conveyance laws
  • The company is subject to continuing contingent tax-related liabilities of DowDuPont following the Distribution.

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001755672-26-000004

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)