DARLING INGREDIENTS INC.
DARProteina animal · rendering y grasasactualizado 2026-08-03Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 35)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $1.55B | 26.1% | $357.7M | 2026-05-08 | 0000916540-26-000013 |
| 2025Q3 | $1.56B | 24.8% | $195.8M | 2025-11-05 | 0000916540-25-000031 |
| 2025Q2 | $1.48B | 23.4% | $196.9M | 2025-08-06 | 0000916540-25-000023 |
| 2025Q1 | $1.38B | 22.6% | $152.2M | 2025-05-07 | 0000916540-25-000014 |
| 2024Q4 | $1.42B | 23.5% | $250.6M | 2025-02-25 | 0000916540-25-000008 |
| 2024Q3 | $1.42B | 22.1% | $183.7M | 2024-11-06 | 0000916540-24-000030 |
| 2024Q2 | $1.46B | 22.5% | $273.1M | 2024-08-07 | 0000916540-24-000024 |
| 2024Q1 | $1.42B | 21.4% | $264.7M | 2024-05-07 | 0000916540-24-000014 |
| 2023Q4 | $1.61B | 27.0% | $296.8M | 2024-02-28 | 0000916540-24-000009 |
| 2023Q3 | $1.63B | 23.8% | $304.4M | 2023-11-07 | 0000916540-23-000036 |
| 2023Q3 | $1.76B | 22.6% | $478.8M | 2023-08-08 | 0000916540-23-000030 |
| 2023Q2 | $1.79B | 23.7% | $371.9M | 2023-05-09 | 0000916540-23-000018 |
| 2022Q4 | $1.77B | 22.0% | $366.6M | 2023-02-27 | 0000916540-23-000007 |
| 2022Q4 | $1.75B | 21.5% | $373.3M | 2022-11-08 | 0000916540-22-000034 |
| 2022Q3 | $1.65B | 25.4% | $371.7M | 2022-08-09 | 0000916540-22-000024 |
| 2022Q2 | $1.37B | 25.3% | $312.1M | 2022-05-10 | 0000916540-22-000016 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q2): margen ▲ sube — protein_vs_feed 9.8% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| protein_vs_feed primaria (a priori) | 46% | 33 | 0.7566 |
| poultry_ppi | 49% | 33 | 0.6358 |
| corn | 55% | 33 | 0.3642 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica protein_vs_feed y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 24 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 60% | 10 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 42% | 12 |
| OLS + momentum de coste mejor | 92% | 12 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 83% | 12 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
15 factores del 10-K de 2026-03-03, verbatim del documento. 6 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-25.
- nuevoOur business may be affected by the impact of animal related disease, such as BSE, and by other food safety or food regulatory issues.
- nuevoDownturns and volatility in global economies and commodity and credit markets could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Litigation or regulatory proceedings may materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Our products, processes, methods, and equipment may infringe upon the intellectual property rights of others, which may cause us to incur unexpected costs or prevent us from selling our products.
- nuevoWe may not be able to achieve our climate, sustainability or other such goals, targets or objectives.
- Energy Policies of U.S. and Foreign Governments
- The DGD Joint Venture subjects us to a number of risks.
- nuevoRisks Related to our Business-Our renewable energy businesses, including the DGD Joint Venture, are highly dependent on government programs, incentives and regulatory frameworks, which are subject to change and uncertainty.”
- Risks Related to Legal and Regulatory Compliance
- nuevoRisks Related to Global Disease Outbreaks or Pandemics
- nuevoPandemics, epidemics or disease outbreaks may disrupt our business, including, among other things, our supply chain and production processes, each of which could materially affect our operations, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations.
- Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
- Changes in consumer preference could negatively impact our business.
- Our success is dependent on our key personnel.
- Our European pension funds may require minimum funding contributions.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000916540-26-000008