ENTEGRIS INC

ENTGW: semiconductores · materiales para semis (W en interconexiones)actualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$125.20
IV prob-weighted
$88.57
Gap
-29%
TTM EBITDA≈
$664.7M
Net debt
$3.21B
Margen (percentil hist.)
86%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA

No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.

APT 2026-08
610.000 RMB/t
vs hace 12 meses
+103%
desde el máximo
-59%
MesAPT (RMB/t)Horquilla p25–p75Citas
2026-08610.000610.000610.0005
2026-07610.000600.000660.00088
2026-06780.000750.000800.00073
2026-05816.800660.0001.020.00064
2026-041.380.0001.340.0001.430.00077
2026-031.490.0001.330.0001.500.00070
2026-02995.000920.0001.033.30058
2026-01751.071710.000795.00084
2025-12555.000518.000630.00093
2025-11472.000460.000484.00075
2025-10403.000393.000412.00079
2025-09403.400398.000410.00078

Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 21.01–29.41× EV/EBITDA (mediana 24.78×, 1742 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 46.9%, percentil 86% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata semis_ip anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 56% (n=36, p=0.3089): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+2.5% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -319 bps alineados a 20d (hit 42%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -29%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 0% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 100% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.127: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 54%, OLS commodity 56%, OLS+coste 50%, signo+coste 44%. Gana OLS commodity: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 22 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-11, 0 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-12. Concentracion: operacional 8, regulatorio 5, demanda competencia 4. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$811.9M46.9%$175.7M2026-04-300001101302-26-000102
2025Q4$823.9M43.8%$158.6M2026-02-110001101302-26-000012
2025Q3$807.1M43.5%$173.0M2025-10-300001101302-25-000103
2025Q2$792.4M44.4%$157.4M2025-07-300001101302-25-000079
2025Q1$773.2M46.1%$172.2M2025-05-070001101302-25-000060
2024Q4$849.8M45.6%$198.3M2025-02-120001101302-25-000015
2024Q3$807.7M46.0%$183.3M2024-11-040001101302-24-000074
2024Q2$812.7M46.2%$177.5M2024-07-310001101302-24-000053
2024Q1$771.0M45.6%$162.9M2024-05-010001101302-24-000040
2023Q4$812.3M42.4%$143.6M2024-02-150001101302-24-000009
2023Q3$888.2M41.3%$156.7M2023-11-020001101302-23-000089
2023Q3$901.0M42.6%$311.3M2023-08-030001101302-23-000082
2023Q2$922.4M43.5%$60.2M2023-05-110001101302-23-000069
2022Q4$946.1M42.8%$185.7M2023-02-230001101302-23-000021
2022Q4$993.8M37.4%$60.1M2022-11-020001101302-22-000050
2022Q3$692.5M44.8%$182.4M2022-08-020001101302-22-000042

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube semis_ip 2.5% QTD · a 2026-08-04

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
semis_ip primaria (a priori)56%360.3089

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica semis_ip y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 28 trimestres

R² del commodity
0%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
100%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.13
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)54%13
OLS sobre el commodity mejor56%16
OLS + momentum de coste50%16
Signo + momentum de coste44%16

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+4 bps
hit 56% · n=36
5d tras filing
-68 bps
hit 50% · n=36
20d tras filing
-319 bps
hit 42% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

22 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-11, verbatim del documento. 0 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-12.

operacional 8regulatorio 5demanda competencia 4financiero 4coste insumos 3ciberseguridad 1laboral 1precio commodity 1clima agua 1
  • Risks Related to Our Business and Industry
  • Provisions in our charter documents and Delaware law may delay or prevent an acquisition of us, which could decrease the value of our shares.
  • Interruptions in our supply chain, including those from our sole, single and limited source suppliers, could affect our ability to manufacture our products and meet demand, which, in turn, could have an adverse effect on our revenue and results of operations.
  • A significant portion of our sales is concentrated on a limited number of key customers, and our net sales and profitability may materially decline if we were to lose one or more of these customers.
  • If we are unable to anticipate and respond to rapid technological change and customer requirements by continuing to innovate and introduce new and enhanced products and solutions, we may experience a loss of market share, decreased sales, revenue, profitability and damage to our reputation.
  • Manufacturing interruptions or delays, or other disruptions to our operations, could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and reputation.
  • We may be subject to IT system failures, network disruptions and cybersecurity and data breaches, which could damage our reputation and adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. New laws and regulations regarding data privacy may also increase our costs.
  • Our operations use hazardous materials that expose us to various risks, including potential liability for personal injury and potential remediation obligations.
  • We carry a significant amount of goodwill on our balance sheet.
  • Loss of any of our key personnel could harm our business, and our inability to attract and retain new qualified personnel could inhibit our ability to operate and grow our business successfully.
  • If we fail to obtain, protect and enforce intellectual property rights, our business and prospects could be harmed.
  • Implementation of, and reporting on, our environmental, social and governance commitments could result in additional costs, and our inability to achieve these commitments could have an adverse impact on our reputation and performance.
  • We are subject to a variety of rapidly evolving environmental laws and regulations that could cause us to incur significant liabilities and expenses.
  • Changes in taxation or adverse tax rulings could adversely affect our results of operations.
  • We have a substantial amount of indebtedness and may in the future incur substantially more debt, each of which could adversely affect our ability to obtain financing in the future and react to changes in our business.
  • We may be unable to generate sufficient cash to service our indebtedness and may be forced to take other actions, which may not be successful, to satisfy our obligations under our indebtedness.
  • The terms of the Amended Credit Agreement and the Indentures may restrict our operations, particularly our ability to respond to changes or raise additional funds.
  • The price of our common stock has been and may remain volatile.
  • We may decrease or discontinue cash dividends and may never adopt a new program to repurchase our shares of common stock.
  • Competition from new or existing companies could harm our financial condition, results of operations and cash flow.
  • We may acquire other businesses, form joint ventures or divest businesses, any of which could negatively affect our financial performance.
  • Climate change may have a long-term impact on our business, including by causing disruptions to our operations which may result in decreased revenue and cash flows.

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001101302-26-000012

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)