FASTENAL CO

FASTW: distribucion MRO · distribuidor industrial generalistaactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$48.11
IV prob-weighted
$21.74
Gap
-55%
TTM EBITDA≈
$1.95B
Net debt
$-84.7M
Margen (percentil hist.)
5%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA

No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.

APT 2026-08
610.000 RMB/t
vs hace 12 meses
+103%
desde el máximo
-59%
MesAPT (RMB/t)Horquilla p25–p75Citas
2026-08610.000610.000610.0005
2026-07610.000600.000660.00088
2026-06780.000750.000800.00073
2026-05816.800660.0001.020.00064
2026-041.380.0001.340.0001.430.00077
2026-031.490.0001.330.0001.500.00070
2026-02995.000920.0001.033.30058
2026-01751.071710.000795.00084
2025-12555.000518.000630.00093
2025-11472.000460.000484.00075
2025-10403.000393.000412.00079
2025-09403.400398.000410.00078

Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 9.19–22.47× EV/EBITDA (mediana 10.77×, 2023 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 44.6%, percentil 5% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona de suelo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata fabricated_metal_ppi anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 36% (n=36, p=0.9674): SEÑAL INVERTIDA — el margen se mueve en sentido contrario al supuesto a priori; no usar el signo tal cual. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: indpro 67% (n=36, p=0.0326). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +251 bps alineados a 20d (hit 61%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -55%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 8% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 92% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.327: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 42%, OLS commodity 62%, OLS+coste 71%, signo+coste 50%. Gana OLS+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 31 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-05, 1 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-06. Concentracion: financiero 9, coste insumos 7, regulatorio 6. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$2.39B44.6%$544.6M2026-07-160000815556-26-000041
2026Q1$2.20B44.6%$489.5M2026-04-160000815556-26-000022
2025Q4$2.03B44.3%$436.8M2026-02-050000815556-26-000009
2025Q3$2.13B45.3%$483.8M2025-10-160000815556-25-000119
2025Q2$2.08B45.3%$478.5M2025-07-170000815556-25-000106
2025Q1$1.96B45.1%$435.9M2025-04-160000815556-25-000083
2024Q4$1.82B44.9%$397.2M2025-02-060000815556-25-000065
2024Q3$1.91B45.0%$429.9M2024-10-160000815556-24-000037
2024Q2$1.92B45.1%$427.9M2024-07-170000815556-24-000031
2024Q1$1.90B45.5%$430.4M2024-04-160000815556-24-000019
2023Q4$1.76B45.5%$405.0M2024-02-060000815556-24-000009
2023Q3$1.85B45.9%$428.8M2023-10-170000815556-23-000049
2023Q2$1.88B45.5%$437.1M2023-07-180000815556-23-000041
2023Q1$1.86B45.7%$435.0M2023-04-180000815556-23-000021
2022Q4$1.70B45.3%$385.7M2023-02-070000815556-23-000009
2022Q3$1.80B45.9%$420.6M2022-10-180000815556-22-000041

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
fabricated_metal_ppi primaria (a priori)36%360.9674
indpro67%360.0326

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica fabricated_metal_ppi y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres

R² del commodity
8%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
92%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.33
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)42%24
OLS sobre el commodity63%24
OLS + momentum de coste mejor71%24
Signo + momentum de coste50%24

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
-15 bps
hit 46% · n=37
5d tras filing
+22 bps
hit 54% · n=37
20d tras filing
+251 bps
hit 61% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

31 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-05, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-06.

financiero 9coste insumos 7regulatorio 6operacional 6demanda competencia 5geopolitico 3clima agua 2precio commodity 2laboral 1ciberseguridad 1
  • Products that we sell may expose us to potential material liability for property damage, environmental damage, personal injury, or death linked to the use of those products by our customers.
  • nuevoWe may not be successful in adopting and integrating emerging technologies.
  • The ability to adequately protect our intellectual property or successfully defend against infringement claims by others may have an adverse impact on operations.
  • Our ability to successfully attract, develop, and retain qualified personnel to staff our selling locations could impact labor costs, sales at existing selling locations, and the successful execution of our growth drivers.
  • Cybersecurity incidents, or violations of data privacy laws and regulations, could cause us to experience certain operational interruptions, incur substantial additional costs, become subject to legal or regulatory proceedings, or suffer damage to our reputation in the marketplace.
  • Our SG&A expenses could grow more rapidly than net sales, which could result in failure to achieve our goals related to leveraging sales growth into higher net income.
  • Our inability to attract or transition key executive officers may divert the attention of other members of our senior leadership and adversely impact our existing operations.
  • We may be affected by global climate change or legal, tax, regulatory, or market responses to such change.
  • We may be unable to meet our goals regarding the growth drivers of our business.
  • The ability to identify new products and product lines, and integrate them into our selling efforts and distribution network, may impact our ability to compete, our ability to generate additional sales, and our profit margins.
  • The ability to adequately protect our reputation may have an adverse impact on operations and profitability.
  • We may not be able to compete effectively against traditional or non-traditional competitors, which could cause us to lose market share or erode our gross and/or operating income profit and/or percentage.
  • We may not be successful in integrating acquisitions and achieving intended benefits and synergies.
  • Our stock price will fluctuate, and at times these fluctuations may be volatile
  • There can be no assurance that our stock price will continue to reflect the current multiple of income over time.
  • We cannot provide any guaranty of future dividend payments or that we will continue to purchase shares of our common stock pursuant to our share purchase program.
  • Products manufactured in foreign countries may cease to be available, which could adversely affect our inventory levels and operating results.
  • A downturn in the economy or in the principal markets served by us and other factors may affect customer spending, which could harm our operating results.
  • Trade policies could make sourcing product from overseas more difficult and/or more costly, and could adversely impact our gross and/or operating profit percentage.
  • Changes in energy costs and the cost of raw materials used in our products could impact our net sales, cost of sales, gross profit percentage, distribution expenses, and occupancy expenses, which may result in lower operating income.
  • We are exposed to foreign currency exchange rate risk, and changes in foreign exchange rates could increase the cost of purchasing products and impact our foreign sales.
  • Our current estimates of total market potential as well as the market potential of our business strategies could be incorrect.
  • The industrial, construction, and maintenance supply industry is consolidating, which could cause it to become more competitive and could negatively impact our market share, gross profit, and operating income.
  • The occurrence of a widespread public health crisis could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.
  • Inclement weather and other disruptions to the transportation network could adversely impact our distribution system and demand for our products.

6 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000815556-26-000009

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)