FASTENAL CO
FASTW: distribucion MRO · distribuidor industrial generalistaactualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 610.000 | 610.000–610.000 | 5 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 600.000–660.000 | 88 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 73 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 64 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.340.000–1.430.000 | 77 |
| 2026-03 | 1.490.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 70 |
| 2026-02 | 995.000 | 920.000–1.033.300 | 58 |
| 2026-01 | 751.071 | 710.000–795.000 | 84 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–630.000 | 93 |
| 2025-11 | 472.000 | 460.000–484.000 | 75 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 79 |
| 2025-09 | 403.400 | 398.000–410.000 | 78 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $2.39B | 44.6% | $544.6M | 2026-07-16 | 0000815556-26-000041 |
| 2026Q1 | $2.20B | 44.6% | $489.5M | 2026-04-16 | 0000815556-26-000022 |
| 2025Q4 | $2.03B | 44.3% | $436.8M | 2026-02-05 | 0000815556-26-000009 |
| 2025Q3 | $2.13B | 45.3% | $483.8M | 2025-10-16 | 0000815556-25-000119 |
| 2025Q2 | $2.08B | 45.3% | $478.5M | 2025-07-17 | 0000815556-25-000106 |
| 2025Q1 | $1.96B | 45.1% | $435.9M | 2025-04-16 | 0000815556-25-000083 |
| 2024Q4 | $1.82B | 44.9% | $397.2M | 2025-02-06 | 0000815556-25-000065 |
| 2024Q3 | $1.91B | 45.0% | $429.9M | 2024-10-16 | 0000815556-24-000037 |
| 2024Q2 | $1.92B | 45.1% | $427.9M | 2024-07-17 | 0000815556-24-000031 |
| 2024Q1 | $1.90B | 45.5% | $430.4M | 2024-04-16 | 0000815556-24-000019 |
| 2023Q4 | $1.76B | 45.5% | $405.0M | 2024-02-06 | 0000815556-24-000009 |
| 2023Q3 | $1.85B | 45.9% | $428.8M | 2023-10-17 | 0000815556-23-000049 |
| 2023Q2 | $1.88B | 45.5% | $437.1M | 2023-07-18 | 0000815556-23-000041 |
| 2023Q1 | $1.86B | 45.7% | $435.0M | 2023-04-18 | 0000815556-23-000021 |
| 2022Q4 | $1.70B | 45.3% | $385.7M | 2023-02-07 | 0000815556-23-000009 |
| 2022Q3 | $1.80B | 45.9% | $420.6M | 2022-10-18 | 0000815556-22-000041 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| fabricated_metal_ppi primaria (a priori) | 36% | 36 | 0.9674 |
| indpro | 67% | 36 | 0.0326 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica fabricated_metal_ppi y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 42% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 63% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste mejor | 71% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 50% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
31 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-05, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-06.
- Products that we sell may expose us to potential material liability for property damage, environmental damage, personal injury, or death linked to the use of those products by our customers.
- nuevoWe may not be successful in adopting and integrating emerging technologies.
- The ability to adequately protect our intellectual property or successfully defend against infringement claims by others may have an adverse impact on operations.
- Our ability to successfully attract, develop, and retain qualified personnel to staff our selling locations could impact labor costs, sales at existing selling locations, and the successful execution of our growth drivers.
- Cybersecurity incidents, or violations of data privacy laws and regulations, could cause us to experience certain operational interruptions, incur substantial additional costs, become subject to legal or regulatory proceedings, or suffer damage to our reputation in the marketplace.
- Our SG&A expenses could grow more rapidly than net sales, which could result in failure to achieve our goals related to leveraging sales growth into higher net income.
- Our inability to attract or transition key executive officers may divert the attention of other members of our senior leadership and adversely impact our existing operations.
- We may be affected by global climate change or legal, tax, regulatory, or market responses to such change.
- We may be unable to meet our goals regarding the growth drivers of our business.
- The ability to identify new products and product lines, and integrate them into our selling efforts and distribution network, may impact our ability to compete, our ability to generate additional sales, and our profit margins.
- The ability to adequately protect our reputation may have an adverse impact on operations and profitability.
- We may not be able to compete effectively against traditional or non-traditional competitors, which could cause us to lose market share or erode our gross and/or operating income profit and/or percentage.
- We may not be successful in integrating acquisitions and achieving intended benefits and synergies.
- Our stock price will fluctuate, and at times these fluctuations may be volatile
- There can be no assurance that our stock price will continue to reflect the current multiple of income over time.
- We cannot provide any guaranty of future dividend payments or that we will continue to purchase shares of our common stock pursuant to our share purchase program.
- Products manufactured in foreign countries may cease to be available, which could adversely affect our inventory levels and operating results.
- A downturn in the economy or in the principal markets served by us and other factors may affect customer spending, which could harm our operating results.
- Trade policies could make sourcing product from overseas more difficult and/or more costly, and could adversely impact our gross and/or operating profit percentage.
- Changes in energy costs and the cost of raw materials used in our products could impact our net sales, cost of sales, gross profit percentage, distribution expenses, and occupancy expenses, which may result in lower operating income.
- We are exposed to foreign currency exchange rate risk, and changes in foreign exchange rates could increase the cost of purchasing products and impact our foreign sales.
- Our current estimates of total market potential as well as the market potential of our business strategies could be incorrect.
- The industrial, construction, and maintenance supply industry is consolidating, which could cause it to become more competitive and could negatively impact our market share, gross profit, and operating income.
- The occurrence of a widespread public health crisis could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.
- Inclement weather and other disruptions to the transportation network could adversely impact our distribution system and demand for our products.
… 6 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000815556-26-000009