FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
FCXCobre · mineraactualizado 2026-07-28Precio
$61.64
IV prob-weighted
$46.64
Gap
-24%
TTM EBITDA≈
$9.64B
Net debt
$5.68B
Margen (percentil hist.)
41%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
11 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 6.05–9.66× EV/EBITDA (mediana 7.24×, 2002 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 26.8%, percentil 41% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata copper anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 57% (n=35, p=0.2498): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+3.9% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
realizedPrecio realizado (avg_realized_copper_usd_lb) vs spot: corr niveles 0.944, Δ 0.676, captura β 0.808 (n=24): el spot llega al P&L de forma parcial y con ruido trimestral — mismo cuello de botella que ALTO. [realized_model.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -69 bps alineados a 20d (hit 58%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -24%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia39/60 métricas del MD&A (65%) superan las cuatro guardas deterministas (cita en fuente, valor dentro de la cita, terminología del campo, ámbito consolidado). La cita sola la pasaban 39: la diferencia son misclasificaciones que la verificación textual no ve. [mdna_audit.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 19% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 81% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.238: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 56%, OLS commodity 56%, OLS+coste 65%, signo+coste 70%. Gana signo+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 32 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-13, 7 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-14. Concentracion: operacional 16, regulatorio 11, coste insumos 5. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $6.25B | 26.8% | $2.65B | 2026-05-08 | 0000831259-26-000025 |
| 2025Q4 | $5.27B | 12.4% | $1.30B | 2026-02-13 | 0000831259-26-000012 |
| 2025Q3 | $6.82B | 29.2% | $2.60B | 2025-11-06 | 0000831259-25-000050 |
| 2025Q2 | $7.53B | 34.2% | $3.10B | 2025-08-08 | 0000831259-25-000031 |
| 2025Q1 | $5.57B | 24.3% | $1.77B | 2025-05-08 | 0000831259-25-000018 |
| 2024Q4 | $5.88B | 27.0% | $1.78B | 2025-02-14 | 0000831259-25-000006 |
| 2024Q3 | $6.68B | 30.0% | $2.54B | 2024-11-08 | 0000831259-24-000039 |
| 2024Q2 | $6.40B | 31.5% | $2.56B | 2024-08-07 | 0000831259-24-000031 |
| 2024Q1 | $6.21B | 28.5% | $2.23B | 2024-05-08 | 0000831259-24-000019 |
| 2023Q4 | $5.80B | 31.9% | $2.31B | 2024-02-16 | 0000831259-24-000011 |
| 2023Q3 | $5.86B | 30.3% | $2.02B | 2023-11-03 | 0000831259-23-000037 |
| 2023Q2 | $5.93B | 30.9% | $1.96B | 2023-08-03 | 0000831259-23-000032 |
| 2023Q1 | $5.12B | 30.3% | $2.00B | 2023-05-04 | 0000831259-23-000023 |
| 2022Q4 | $5.43B | 25.9% | $2.04B | 2023-02-15 | 0000831259-23-000013 |
| 2022Q3 | $5.31B | 26.6% | $1.47B | 2022-11-04 | 0000831259-22-000049 |
| 2022Q2 | $6.17B | 42.8% | $2.24B | 2022-08-05 | 0000831259-22-000043 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — copper 3.9% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| copper primaria (a priori) | 57% | 35 | 0.2498 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
39/60 (65%) superan las 4 guardas deterministas; con la verificación de cita sola pasaban 39. Tabla: las 40 más recientes en orden cronológico, rechazadas incluidas (motivo en el tooltip).
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018Q3 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 2.8 | “Average realized price per pound $ 2.80” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q4 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 2.35 | “Average unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits) for our North America copper mines are expected to approximate $2.45 per pound of copper in 2023” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 1.74 | “Average unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits) of $1.74 per pound of copper in second-quarter 2018” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q4 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.79 | “Average realized price per pound$4.79 $4.16” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 1.85 | “Unit net cash costs2.13 2.29 10.95 1.85 1.99 6.67” | auditado ✓ |
| 2017Q4 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 1.67 | “Unit net cash costs 1.67” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q2 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.83 | “Average realized price per pound $3.83” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 1.74 | “Average unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits) for the North America copper mines of $1.91 per pound of copper in first-quarter 2019 were higher than unit net cash costs of $1.74 per pound in” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.8 | “Average realized price per pound$3.80 $4.34” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q4 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.34 | “Average realized price per pound$4.34 $3.05” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q3 | copper_sold_mlbs | 818 | “Copper (millions of recoverable pounds) Sales278 293 818 879” | rechazado |
| 2021Q1 | copper_sold_mlbs | 259 | “Copper (millions of recoverable pounds) Sales259 247” | rechazado |
| 2022Q3 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 2.58 | “Unit net cash costs2.58 2.61 1.90 2.10” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q4 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.82 | “Average realized price per pound $3.82” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 2.46 | “Unit net cash costs2.46” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q4 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.05 | “Average realized price per pound$3.05 $2.71” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q1 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.69 | “Average realized price per pound$4.69 $3.96” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q3 | copper_sold_mlbs | 293 | “Copper sales (millions of recoverable pounds)293 293 280 280” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q4 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.16 | “Average realized price per pound$4.16 $3.82” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q1 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.96 | “Average realized price per pound$3.96 $2.33” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q1 | copper_sold_mlbs | 290 | “South America’s consolidated copper sales volumes of 290 million pounds in first-quarter 2019” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | copper_sold_mlbs | 265 | “Our consolidated copper sales volumes from South America operations totaled 265 million pounds in second-quarter 2025, 302 million pounds in second-quarter 2024” | rechazado |
| 2023Q1 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.08 | “Average realized price per pound$4.08 $4.69” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q1 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 2.93 | “Average realized price per pound $ 2.93” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q4 | copper_sold_mlbs | 1253 | “Copper sales 1,253” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.07 | “Average realized price per pound $ 3.07” | auditado ✓ |
| 2017Q4 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 2.97 | “Average realized price per pound $ 2.97” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q3 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.29 | “Average realized price per pound $4.29” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 3.11 | “Average unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits) for our U.S. copper mines of $2.93 per pound of copper in first-quarter 2026” | rechazado |
| 2024Q2 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.39 | “Average realized price per pound$4.39” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.94 | “Average realized price per pound$3.94 $4.08” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q3 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 2.44 | “Average unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits) for South America operations of $2.44 per pound of copper in third-quarter 2024” | rechazado |
| 2021Q4 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 1.81 | “Average unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits) for our North America copper mines ranged from $1.47 per pound to $2.86 per pound at the individual mines and averaged $1.89 per pound.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 2.63 | “Average unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits) for the North America copper mines of $2.63 per pound of copper in 2023” | rechazado |
| 2025Q3 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.46 | “Average realized price per pound$4.60 $4.29 $4.46 $4.25” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 1.83 | “Average unit net cash costs (net of by-product credits) of $1.83 per pound of copper in second-quarter 2019 were higher than unit net cash costs of $1.74 per pound in second-quarter 2018” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q2 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 4.39 | “Average realized price per pound$4.47 $4.39 $4.39 $4.27” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 3.58 | “Total unit costs3.58 3.75 19.90 3.64 3.69 18.62” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q2 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.78 | “Average realized price per pound$3.78 $3.83 $3.85 $4.00” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q3 | avg_realized_copper_usd_lb | 3.47 | “Revenues, excluding adjustments$3.47 $3.47 $4.12 $4.12” | rechazado |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica copper y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
R² del commodity
19%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
81%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.24
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 56% | 23 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 56% | 23 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 65% | 23 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 70% | 23 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_realized_copper_usd_lb (MD&A verificado) vs copper — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Corr. niveles
0.94
Corr. Δ trimestral
0.68
β captura Δ%spot→Δ%real
0.81
n pares
24
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
+48 bps
hit 61% · n=36
5d tras filing
+108 bps
hit 64% · n=36
20d tras filing
-69 bps
hit 58% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
32 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-13, verbatim del documento. 7 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-14.
operacional 16regulatorio 11coste insumos 5financiero 5laboral 3geopolitico 2clima agua 2ciberseguridad 1demanda competencia 1
- Unanticipated legal proceedings or negative developments in pending legal proceedings or other contingencies could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition.
- Risks related to development projects and mineral reserves
- Regulatory, environmental and social risks
- nuevoScrutiny, action and evolving expectations from stakeholders and other third parties with respect to our sustainability-related practices, performance, commitments and disclosures may impact our reputation, increase our costs and impact our access to capital or business strategy.
- Our debt and other financial commitments may limit our financial and operating flexibility.
- Changes in or the failure to comply with the requirements of mine closure and reclamation regulations could have a material adverse effect on our business.
- nuevoChanges in and interpretations of tax laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition.
- Our operations are subject to evolving geopolitical, economic, regulatory and social risks.
- Because our operations in Indonesia are material to our business, our business may be adversely affected by political, economic, regulatory and social uncertainties in Indonesia.
- nuevoPTFI will not mine all of the mineral reserves in the Grasberg minerals district before the initial term of its IUPK expires in 2031. PTFI’s IUPK may not be extended through 2041 if it fails to abide by its terms and conditions and applicable laws and regulations.
- nuevoThe mud removal and other remediation activities, and the phased restart and ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine following the September 2025 mud rush incident may not be achieved as planned which could adversely impact our results of operations and financial condition.
- Our operations are subject to significant operational risks that could adversely affect our business, including the ability to smelt and refine, and our underground mining operations have higher risks than a surface mine.
- Our management of waste rock and tailings are subject to significant environmental, safety and engineering challenges and risks that could adversely affect our business.
- Our Indonesia mining operations are susceptible to difficult and costly environmental challenges, and future changes in Indonesia environmental laws could increase our costs.
- Violence, civil and religious strife, and activism could result in loss of life and disrupt our operations.
- Our operations, including future expansions or developments, depend on the availability of secure water supplies.
- Our information and operational technology systems have been and in the future may be adversely affected by cybersecurity events, disruptions, damage, failure and risks associated with implementation and integration.
- nuevoFailure to successfully implement, advance or develop new technology systems and increased exposure to risks associated with the use of these systems may adversely affect our business.
- nuevoLeaching and Technology Innovation Initiatives
- Major public health crises may have an adverse impact on our business.
- Labor disputes or labor unrest could disrupt our operations.
- Our success depends on our ability to recruit, retain, develop and advance qualified personnel.
- Development projects are inherently risky and may require more capital and have lower economic returns than anticipated, and the development of our underground mines are also subject to other unique risks.
- We may not be able to maintain or grow our mineral reserves.
- Estimates of mineral reserves and mineral resources are uncertain and the volume and grade of ore actually recovered may vary from our estimates.
… 7 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000831259-26-000012
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)