FMC CORP

FMCInsumos agricolas · proteccion de cultivosactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$10.36
IV prob-weighted
$4.22
Gap
-59%
TTM EBITDA≈
$-1.84B
Net debt
$3.49B
Margen (percentil hist.)
32%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 13.1–16.75× EV/EBITDA (mediana 15.05×, 1759 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 39.5%, percentil 32% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata corn anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 51% (n=37, p=0.5): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +112 bps alineados a 20d (hit 56%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -59%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 6% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 94% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.555: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 52%, OLS commodity 48%, OLS+coste 64%, signo+coste 64%. Gana OLS+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 43 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-27, diff interanual no fiable. Concentracion: coste insumos 9, operacional 9, regulatorio 9. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$867.1M39.5%$-78.6M2026-07-300000037785-26-000142
2026Q1$758.6M32.5%$-39.0M2026-04-300000037785-26-000096
2025Q4$1.08B39.8%$-1.37B2026-02-270000037785-26-000041
2025Q3$542.2M23.8%$-352.9M2025-10-300000037785-25-000127
2025Q2$1.05B38.7%$169.8M2025-07-310000037785-25-000083
2025Q1$791.4M40.0%$101.9M2025-05-010000037785-25-000065
2024Q4$1.22B42.9%$277.7M2025-02-280000037785-25-000030
2024Q3$1.07B36.3%$178.8M2024-10-300000037785-24-000119
2024Q2$1.04B38.3%$106.6M2024-08-010000037785-24-000102
2024Q1$918.0M37.0%$119.7M2024-05-070000037785-24-000066
2023Q4$1.15B38.0%$64.0M2024-02-270000037785-24-000033
2023Q3$981.9M38.8%$146.4M2023-11-070000037785-23-000178
2023Q2$1.01B42.7%$180.3M2023-08-030000037785-23-000153
2023Q1$1.34B43.2%$349.2M2023-05-020000037785-23-000099
2022Q4$1.62B42.3%$437.3M2023-02-240000037785-23-000019
2022Q3$1.38B34.7%$252.0M2022-11-020000037785-22-000090

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
corn primaria (a priori)51%370.5
soybean54%370.3714

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica corn y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres

R² del commodity
6%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
95%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.56
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)52%25
OLS sobre el commodity48%25
OLS + momentum de coste mejor64%25
Signo + momentum de coste mejor64%25

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
-5 bps
hit 49% · n=37
5d tras filing
-49 bps
hit 42% · n=36
20d tras filing
+112 bps
hit 56% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

43 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-27, verbatim del documento. Diff interanual no disponible (formato distinto en el filing previo).

coste insumos 9operacional 9regulatorio 9precio commodity 8geopolitico 7financiero 7demanda competencia 5laboral 2
  • Our business faces competition, which could affect our ability to maintain or raise prices, successfully enter certain markets or retain our market position.
  • Our markets are affected by climatic conditions, both chronic and acute, which could adversely impact our business.
  • Unexpected market conditions may adversely impact our business due to the seasonal nature of the crop protection market and the geographic spread of our business.
  • Argentina and the European Union, could adversely impact our ability to continue producing and/or selling certain products in our domestic and foreign markets or could increase the cost of producing and/or selling certain products.
  • We do business in highly regulated industries. Changes in government regulations or trade association policies could adversely affect our results of operations.
  • Varying definitions in regulations create regulatory uncertainty for our Company when adapting to new environmental rules, including changes to EPA requirements.
  • We are subject to customer, consumer, shareholder and regulatory focus on sustainability, which may result in additional costs in order to meet new requirements, including adversely affecting our stock price, results of operations and access to capital.
  • Our operating results could be significantly affected by the cost of commodities such as chemical raw material commodities, energy commodities, and harvested crop commodities.
  • Changes in the price or availability of key raw materials for production of finished goods have had, and could again have, a material adverse impact on our businesses.
  • A global catastrophic event could have a material adverse effect on our business.
  • Interruptions at our key facilities may materially reduce the productivity of a particular manufacturing facility, or the profitability of our business as a whole.
  • A shortage or unavailability of trucks, railcars, tugs, barges and ships for carrying our products and the raw materials we use in our business could result in customer dissatisfaction, loss of production or sales and higher transportation or equipment costs.
  • Our exploration of strategic options may not result in entering into or completing transactions, when necessary, and the process of reviewing alternative strategic options or their conclusion could adversely affect our stock price.
  • Our financial results could be harmed if we fail to implement the plan to divest the Company’s commercial business in India in the expected timeline.
  • The FMC Lithium separation might be interpreted as a taxable event by the IRS or local taxing authorities, subjecting the Company to material tax liabilities.
  • Any failure to realize benefits from acquisitions, alliances or joint ventures or to achieve our portfolio management objectives could adversely affect future financial results.
  • If we are unable to innovate and successfully introduce new products or new technologies or processes reduce the demand for our products or the price at which we can sell products, our profitability could be adversely affected.
  • Our ability to compete effectively depends on our ability to protect our intellectual property rights.
  • active ingredients have expired in all major markets, which will affect our ability to compete effectively.
  • Our significant non-US operations expose us to global exchange rate fluctuations that could adversely impact our profitability.
  • We could be subject to changes in our tax rates and the adoption of tax legislation or exposure to additional tax liabilities that may adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows.
  • We may incur significant non-cash charges if our long-lived assets become impaired in the future.
  • Significant changes in pension fund investment performance or assumptions relating to pension costs may have a material effect on the valuation of pension obligations, the funded status of pension plans and our pension cost.
  • We may be subject to litigation, which may result in substantial costs and a diversion of management's attention and resources, which could harm our business.
  • Our operations and the production and handling of our products involve significant risks and hazards. We are not fully insured against all potential hazards and risks incident to our business and as a result, may not be able to adequately cover our losses.

18 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000037785-26-000041 · el filing anterior solo rindió 9 encabezados frente a 43: formato distinto, diff no fiable y por tanto no se reporta

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)