GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP
GDW: defensa · munición con penetradores de tungstenoactualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 610.000 | 610.000–610.000 | 5 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 600.000–660.000 | 88 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 73 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 64 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.340.000–1.430.000 | 77 |
| 2026-03 | 1.490.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 70 |
| 2026-02 | 995.000 | 920.000–1.033.300 | 58 |
| 2026-01 | 751.071 | 710.000–795.000 | 84 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–630.000 | 93 |
| 2025-11 | 472.000 | 460.000–484.000 | 75 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 79 |
| 2025-09 | 403.400 | 398.000–410.000 | 78 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
7 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $13.48B | n/d | $1.59B | 2026-04-29 | 0000040533-26-000012 |
| 2025Q4 | $14.38B | n/d | $1.64B | 2026-01-30 | 0000040533-26-000006 |
| 2025Q3 | $12.91B | n/d | $1.50B | 2025-10-24 | 0000040533-25-000045 |
| 2025Q2 | $13.04B | n/d | $1.47B | 2025-07-23 | 0000040533-25-000035 |
| 2025Q1 | $12.22B | n/d | $1.43B | 2025-04-23 | 0000040533-25-000014 |
| 2024Q4 | $13.34B | n/d | $1.60B | 2025-02-07 | 0000040533-25-000008 |
| 2024Q3 | $11.67B | n/d | $1.34B | 2024-10-23 | 0000040533-24-000043 |
| 2024Q2 | $11.98B | n/d | $1.31B | 2024-07-24 | 0000040533-24-000035 |
| 2024Q1 | $10.73B | n/d | $1.19B | 2024-04-24 | 0000040533-24-000014 |
| 2023Q4 | $11.67B | n/d | $1.45B | 2024-02-08 | 0000040533-24-000007 |
| 2023Q4 | $10.57B | n/d | $1.21B | 2023-10-25 | 0000040533-23-000070 |
| 2023Q3 | $10.15B | n/d | $1.11B | 2023-07-26 | 0000040533-23-000060 |
| 2023Q2 | $9.88B | n/d | $1.09B | 2023-04-26 | 0000040533-23-000027 |
| 2022Q4 | $10.85B | n/d | $1.39B | 2023-02-07 | 0000040533-23-000014 |
| 2022Q4 | $9.97B | n/d | $1.24B | 2022-10-26 | 0000040533-22-000048 |
| 2022Q3 | $9.19B | n/d | $1.12B | 2022-07-27 | 0000040533-22-000039 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q2): margen ▲ sube — indpro 0.6% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| indpro primaria (a priori) | 50% | 36 | 0.566 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
14 factores del 10-K de 2026-01-30, verbatim del documento. 0 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-07.
- The U.S. government provides a significant portion of our revenue.
- U.S. government contracts are not always fully funded at inception, and any funding is subject to disruption or delay.
- Government contracts are subject to termination rights by the customer.
- Government contractors operate in a highly regulated environment and are subject to audit by the U.S. government.
- Our Aerospace segment is subject to changing customer demand for business aircraft.
- Earnings and margin depend on our ability to perform on our contracts.
- Revenue, earnings and margin depend in part on supplier performance.
- Our success depends in part on our ability to develop new products and technologies and maintain a qualified workforce to meet the needs of our customers.
- Operations outside the United States are subject to various risks that may be associated with doing business in foreign countries.
- We have made and expect to continue to make investments, including acquisitions and joint ventures, that involve risks and uncertainties.
- Changes in business conditions may cause goodwill and other intangible assets to become impaired.
- Our business could be negatively impacted by cybersecurity events and other disruptions.
- Our business may continue to be negatively impacted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and could be negatively impacted by other pandemics and outbreaks.
- Global climate change could negatively affect our business.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000040533-26-000006