W.W. GRAINGER, INC.

GWWW: distribucion MRO · distribuidor industrial generalistaactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$1371.25
IV prob-weighted
$967.79
Gap
-29%
TTM EBITDA≈
$2.95B
Net debt
$1.72B
Margen (percentil hist.)
95%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA

No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.

APT 2026-08
610.000 RMB/t
vs hace 12 meses
+103%
desde el máximo
-59%
MesAPT (RMB/t)Horquilla p25–p75Citas
2026-08610.000610.000610.0005
2026-07610.000600.000660.00088
2026-06780.000750.000800.00073
2026-05816.800660.0001.020.00064
2026-041.380.0001.340.0001.430.00077
2026-031.490.0001.330.0001.500.00070
2026-02995.000920.0001.033.30058
2026-01751.071710.000795.00084
2025-12555.000518.000630.00093
2025-11472.000460.000484.00075
2025-10403.000393.000412.00079
2025-09403.400398.000410.00078

Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 14.04–18.2× EV/EBITDA (mediana 16.06×, 2120 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 40.0%, percentil 95% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata fabricated_metal_ppi anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 53% (n=36, p=0.434): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+1.3% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +84 bps alineados a 20d (hit 64%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -29%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 9% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 91% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.109: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 58%, OLS commodity 46%, OLS+coste 54%, signo+coste 58%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 23 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-19, 2 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20. Concentracion: operacional 9, coste insumos 7, demanda competencia 5. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$4.74B40.0%$873.0M2026-05-070000277135-26-000053
2025Q4$4.42B39.5%$717.0M2026-02-190000277135-26-000011
2025Q3$4.66B38.6%$595.0M2025-10-310000277135-25-000148
2025Q2$4.55B38.5%$762.0M2025-08-010000277135-25-000129
2025Q1$4.31B39.7%$751.0M2025-05-010000277135-25-000067
2024Q4$4.23B39.6%$715.0M2025-02-200000277135-25-000010
2024Q3$4.39B39.2%$763.0M2024-10-310000277135-24-000173
2024Q2$4.31B39.3%$727.0M2024-08-010000277135-24-000133
2024Q1$4.24B39.4%$743.0M2024-04-250000277135-24-000059
2023Q4$4.00B39.1%$614.0M2024-02-220000277135-24-000011
2023Q3$4.21B39.3%$722.0M2023-10-260000277135-23-000096
2023Q2$4.18B39.3%$713.0M2023-07-270000277135-23-000055
2023Q1$4.09B39.9%$730.0M2023-04-270000277135-23-000024
2022Q4$3.80B39.6%$590.0M2023-02-210000277135-23-000014
2022Q3$3.94B38.5%$655.0M2022-10-280000277135-22-000043
2022Q2$3.84B37.6%$589.0M2022-07-290000277135-22-000022

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube fabricated_metal_ppi 1.3% QTD · a 2026-08-04

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
fabricated_metal_ppi primaria (a priori)53%360.434
indpro53%360.434

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica fabricated_metal_ppi y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres

R² del commodity
9%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
91%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.11
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor58%24
OLS sobre el commodity46%24
OLS + momentum de coste54%24
Signo + momentum de coste mejor58%24

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
-21 bps
hit 44% · n=36
5d tras filing
-29 bps
hit 47% · n=36
20d tras filing
+84 bps
hit 64% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

23 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-19, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.

operacional 9coste insumos 7demanda competencia 5financiero 4geopolitico 4regulatorio 4precio commodity 2ciberseguridad 2
  • Inflation could cause Grainger's operating and administrative expenses to grow more rapidly than net sales, which could result in lower gross margins and lower net earnings
  • Disruptions in Grainger’s supply chain could result in an adverse impact on results of operations.
  • Weakness in the economy, market trends and other conditions affecting the profitability and financial stability of Grainger’s customers could negatively impact Grainger’s sales growth and results of operations.
  • nuevoUnexpected product shortages, product cost increases and risks in trade and tariff policies associated with Grainger’s suppliers could negatively impact customer relationships or result in an adverse impact on results of operations.
  • Volatility in commodity prices may adversely affect gross margins.
  • Fluctuations in foreign currency could have an effect on reported results of operations.
  • The facilities maintenance industry is highly competitive, and changes in competition and other risks could increase our costs, impact demand for Grainger’s products and services or impact the profitability of our business.
  • Changes in customer base or product mix could cause changes in Grainger’s revenue or gross margin, or affect Grainger’s competitive position.
  • Grainger’s common stock may be subject to volatility or price declines.
  • The growth of Grainger’s eCommerce platforms exposes Grainger to additional risks which could adversely affect Grainger’s reputation, financial condition and operating results.
  • Grainger’s eCommerce channels are subject to risks related to online payment methods and other online transactions, including through purchasing platforms.
  • Grainger’s inability to adequately protect its intellectual property or successfully defend against infringement claims by others may have an adverse impact on operations.
  • In order to compete, Grainger must attract, train, motivate, develop and retain executive leaders and key team members, and the failure to do so could have an adverse effect on results of operations and financial condition.
  • Grainger’s continued success is substantially dependent on positive perceptions of Grainger’s reputation.
  • nuevoGrainger’s disclosures related to corporate responsibility expose it to risks that could adversely affect its reputation and performance.
  • Interruptions in the proper functioning of information systems could disrupt operations and cause unanticipated increases in costs and/or decreases in revenues.
  • The proliferation of AI may impact our industry and the markets in which we compete, and the development and use of AI presents competitive, reputational and liability risks.
  • Cybersecurity threats and incidents, including breaches of information systems security, could damage Grainger’s reputation, disrupt operations, increase costs and/or decrease revenues.
  • Grainger is subject to a number of rules and regulations related to its government contracts, which may result in increased compliance costs and potential liabilities.
  • In conducting its business, Grainger may become subject to legal proceedings or governmental investigations, including in connection with product liability or product compliance claims if people, property or the environment are harmed by Grainger’s products or services.
  • Tax changes could affect Grainger’s effective tax rate and future profitability.
  • Changes in Grainger’s credit ratings and outlook may reduce access to capital and increase borrowing costs.
  • Grainger has incurred indebtedness and may incur additional indebtedness, which could adversely affect cash flow, decrease business flexibility, or prevent Grainger from fulfilling its obligations.

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000277135-26-000011

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)