HURCO COMPANIES INC
HURCW: maquina herramienta · centros de mecanizado (consumen herramienta de W)actualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 610.000 | 610.000–610.000 | 5 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 600.000–660.000 | 88 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 73 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 64 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.340.000–1.430.000 | 77 |
| 2026-03 | 1.490.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 70 |
| 2026-02 | 995.000 | 920.000–1.033.300 | 58 |
| 2026-01 | 751.071 | 710.000–795.000 | 84 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–630.000 | 93 |
| 2025-11 | 472.000 | 460.000–484.000 | 75 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 79 |
| 2025-09 | 403.400 | 398.000–410.000 | 78 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $47.6M | 21.7% | $-282000.00 | 2026-06-05 | 0001104659-26-070920 |
| 2026Q1 | $42.9M | 18.5% | $-2.6M | 2026-03-06 | 0001104659-26-024614 |
| 2025Q4 | $45.5M | 17.0% | $-2.8M | 2026-01-09 | 0001104659-26-002512 |
| 2025Q3 | $45.8M | 19.9% | $-1.0M | 2025-09-05 | 0001558370-25-011897 |
| 2025Q2 | $40.9M | 19.2% | $-2.4M | 2025-06-06 | 0001558370-25-008487 |
| 2025Q1 | $46.4M | 17.9% | $-1.4M | 2025-03-07 | 0001558370-25-002497 |
| 2024Q4 | $53.7M | 22.7% | $363000.00 | 2025-01-10 | 0001558370-25-000129 |
| 2024Q3 | $42.7M | 18.4% | $-1.6M | 2024-09-06 | 0001558370-24-012651 |
| 2024Q2 | $45.2M | 17.8% | $-2.6M | 2024-06-07 | 0001558370-24-009007 |
| 2024Q1 | $45.1M | 21.5% | $-912000.00 | 2024-03-08 | 0001558370-24-002825 |
| 2023Q4 | $66.1M | 26.4% | $4.3M | 2024-01-05 | 0001558370-24-000115 |
| 2023Q3 | $53.2M | 25.3% | $2.0M | 2023-09-08 | 0001558370-23-015602 |
| 2023Q2 | $53.8M | 23.4% | $2.0M | 2023-06-02 | 0001558370-23-010771 |
| 2023Q1 | $54.7M | 23.3% | $2.3M | 2023-03-10 | 0001558370-23-003432 |
| 2022Q4 | $63.5M | 27.7% | $3.7M | 2023-01-06 | 0001558370-23-000097 |
| 2022Q3 | $57.6M | 25.0% | $2.8M | 2022-09-02 | 0001558370-22-014160 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q2): margen ▲ sube — machine_tool_ppi 0.0% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| machine_tool_ppi primaria (a priori) | 54% | 37 | 0.3714 |
| neworder | 68% | 37 | 0.0235 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
18 factores del 10-K de 2026-01-09, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-01-10.
- The cyclical nature of our business causes fluctuations in our operating results.
- Material adverse developments in global economic conditions, or the occurrence of certain other world events, could negatively affect demand for our products and harm our business.
- nuevoChanges in U.S. trade policy, including the imposition of tariffs and the resulting consequences, may have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
- Our international operations pose additional risks that may adversely impact sales and earnings.
- Fluctuations in the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and any of several foreign currencies can increase our costs and decrease our revenues.
- We compete with larger companies that have greater financial resources, and our business could be harmed by competitors’ actions.
- Our competitive position and prospects for growth may be diminished if we are unable to develop and introduce new and enhanced products on a timely basis that are accepted in the market.
- Our continued success depends on our ability to protect our intellectual property.
- Disruptions in our manufacturing operations or the supply of materials and components could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- Fluctuations in the price of raw materials and other inputs, especially steel, iron, and energy, could adversely affect our sales, costs, and profitability.
- The unanticipated loss of current members of our senior management team and other key personnel may adversely affect our operating results.
- Acquisitions could disrupt our operations and harm our operating results.
- Failure to comply with data privacy and security laws and regulations could adversely affect our operating results and business
- If our network and system security measures are breached and unauthorized access is obtained to our data, to our employees’, customers’, or vendors’ data, or to our critical information technology systems, we may incur legal and financial exposure and liabilities.
- Public health emergencies or outbreaks of epidemics, pandemics, or contagious diseases have disrupted, and could continue to disrupt, our operations and materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
- nuevoOur credit facility contains covenants that restrict our business and financing activities, and the property that secures our obligations under the credit facility may be subject to foreclosure in the event of a default.
- Assets have become, and may become further, impaired, requiring us to record a significant charge to earnings.
- We may experience negative or unforeseen tax consequences.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001104659-26-002512