Ingredion Inc
INGRProcesamiento agricola · ingredientes de maizactualizado 2026-08-03Precio
$100.42
IV prob-weighted
$140.46
Gap
40%
TTM EBITDA≈
$1.17B
Net debt
$828.0M
Margen (percentil hist.)
59%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 7.77–8.86× EV/EBITDA (mediana 8.36×, 2009 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 22.4%, percentil 59% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata soy_crush anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 54% (n=35, p=0.3679): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+9.7% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +110 bps alineados a 20d (hit 56%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual +40%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 3% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 97% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.093: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 50%, OLS commodity 50%, OLS+coste 50%, signo+coste 46%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 25 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-17, 9 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20. Concentracion: financiero 8, operacional 6, regulatorio 5. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $1.79B | 22.4% | $258.0M | 2026-05-08 | 0001628280-26-032703 |
| 2025Q4 | $1.76B | 24.5% | $277.0M | 2026-02-17 | 0001628280-26-008603 |
| 2025Q3 | $1.82B | 25.1% | $306.0M | 2025-11-07 | 0001628280-25-050593 |
| 2025Q2 | $1.83B | 26.0% | $324.0M | 2025-08-11 | 0001046257-25-000066 |
| 2025Q1 | $1.81B | 25.7% | $331.0M | 2025-05-09 | 0001046257-25-000037 |
| 2024Q4 | $1.80B | 24.9% | $216.0M | 2025-02-20 | 0001046257-25-000018 |
| 2024Q3 | $1.87B | 25.6% | $321.0M | 2024-11-08 | 0001046257-24-000056 |
| 2024Q2 | $1.88B | 23.8% | $294.0M | 2024-08-08 | 0001046257-24-000046 |
| 2024Q1 | $1.88B | 22.2% | $266.0M | 2024-05-09 | 0001046257-24-000018 |
| 2023Q4 | $1.92B | 20.8% | $256.0M | 2024-02-21 | 0001046257-24-000005 |
| 2023Q3 | $2.03B | 20.7% | $269.0M | 2023-11-07 | 0001046257-23-000070 |
| 2023Q2 | $2.07B | 21.3% | $306.0M | 2023-08-08 | 0001046257-23-000059 |
| 2023Q1 | $2.14B | 22.8% | $345.0M | 2023-05-08 | 0001046257-23-000026 |
| 2022Q4 | $1.99B | 17.7% | $212.0M | 2023-02-21 | 0001046257-23-000006 |
| 2022Q3 | $2.02B | 18.5% | $235.0M | 2022-11-07 | 0001558370-22-016605 |
| 2022Q2 | $2.04B | 19.1% | $267.0M | 2022-08-09 | 0001558370-22-012821 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — soy_crush 9.7% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| soy_crush primaria (a priori) | 54% | 35 | 0.3679 |
| corn | 49% | 35 | 0.6321 |
| soybean | 51% | 35 | 0.5 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica soy_crush y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
R² del commodity
3%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
97%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.09
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 50% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity mejor | 50% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste mejor | 50% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 46% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
+15 bps
hit 53% · n=36
5d tras filing
-107 bps
hit 33% · n=36
20d tras filing
+110 bps
hit 56% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
25 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-17, verbatim del documento. 9 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.
financiero 8operacional 6regulatorio 5precio commodity 4coste insumos 4demanda competencia 3geopolitico 3laboral 2ciberseguridad 2clima agua 1
- nuevoChanges in consumer practices, preferences, price sensitivity, behaviors, demand and perceptions may reduce the demand for our products.
- nuevoGeopolitical developments, tensions, threats or conflicts could harm our business by adversely affecting the availability and prices of raw materials and energy supplies; disrupting global markets, supply chains, and foreign exchange and interest rates, and causing changes in migration patterns.
- nuevoEconomic conditions may adversely impact demand for our products, reduce our access to credit, affect our investment returns and cause our customers and others with whom we do business to suffer financial hardship.
- Our reliance on certain industries for a significant portion of our sales could have a material adverse effect on our business.
- Operating difficulties at our manufacturing facilities and liabilities relating to product safety and quality could adversely affect our business and harm our reputation.
- nuevoOur ability to expand our business may suffer if we do not keep pace with technological developments and continue to offer innovative products, including more sustainable production methods.
- nuevoCompetitive pressures may adversely affect our market share, revenue and profitability.
- Inputs to our procurement, production processes and delivery channels, such as raw material, energy, and freight and logistics, may experience price fluctuations, supply chain interruptions, tariffs, duties, and shortages that could adversely affect our results of operations.
- nuevoAn inability to contain costs, manage working capital, or achieve budgets, including completing planned maintenance and investment projects on time and on budget, could adversely affect our future profitability or cash flows.
- Global climate change and legal, regulatory, or market measures to address climate change, may negatively affect our business, operating results, financial condition, cash flows, and prospects.
- We operate a multinational business subject to the economic, political and other risks inherent in conducting operations in foreign countries and with foreign currencies.
- Our profitability could be negatively impacted if we fail to maintain satisfactory labor relations.
- Our inability to attract, develop, retain, motivate and maintain good relationships with our workforce, including key personnel, could negatively impact our business and our profitability.
- Our business and financial results may be adversely affected by legal and regulatory proceedings.
- Pandemics could have a material adverse effect on our business.
- nuevoThe recognition of impairment charges on long-lived assets, goodwill or investments could adversely impact our future financial position and results of operations.
- nuevoIndefinite-lived intangible assets and goodwill
- Global and regional economic policies and changes to existing laws and regulations may have an adverse impact on our business.
- Changes in our tax rates or exposure to additional income tax liabilities could impact our profitability.
- Increased interest rates could increase our borrowing costs.
- We may not have access to the funds required for future growth and expansion.
- nuevoOur increasing use of artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies, and our reliance on third‑party technology providers, could expose us to operational, legal, regulatory, cybersecurity, and reputational risks that may adversely affect our business.
- Our information technology systems, processes and sites may suffer interruptions, security incidents, or failures that may affect our ability to conduct our business and cause significant damage to our reputation.
- We may not continue to pay dividends, repurchase shares of our common stock, or to pay dividends or repurchase shares of our common stock at the same rate as paid in our most recent fiscal quarters.
- Any failure by us to maintain effective control over financial reporting could result in loss of investor confidence and adversely impact our stock price.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001628280-26-008603
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)