Intrepid Potash, Inc.
IPIFosfato y potasa · potasaactualizado 2026-08-03Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
7 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 9 de 9)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $98.7M | 17.9% | $16.2M | 2026-05-07 | 0001421461-26-000014 |
| 2025Q1 | $94.5M | 14.1% | $13.6M | 2026-05-07 | 0001421461-26-000014 |
| 2018Q3 | $36.5M | 24.5% | $12.0M | 2018-10-31 | 0001421461-18-000023 |
| 2018Q2 | $51.0M | 14.3% | $7.4M | 2018-08-02 | 0001421461-18-000019 |
| 2018Q1 | $53.2M | 13.5% | $11.0M | 2018-04-24 | 0001421461-18-000012 |
| 2017Q4 | $33.3M | 10.9% | $4.8M | 2018-02-27 | 0001421461-18-000007 |
| 2017Q3 | $34.0M | 17.8% | $8.1M | 2018-10-31 | 0001421461-18-000023 |
| 2017Q2 | $45.0M | 10.7% | $6.6M | 2017-08-02 | 0001421461-17-000021 |
| 2017Q1 | $48.7M | -5.3% | $-345000.00 | 2017-05-02 | 0001421461-17-000014 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — fert_ppi 17.1% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| fert_ppi primaria (a priori) | 38% | 8 | 0.8555 |
| corn | 25% | 8 | 0.9648 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
11 factores del 10-K de 2026-03-05, verbatim del documento. 3 son nuevos frente al de 2025-03-04.
- nuevoOur business may be adversely affected by union activities.
- Existing and further oil and gas development in the Designated Potash Area could impair our potash reserves, which could adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations.
- Market upheavals due to military actions, pandemics, terrorist attacks, other catastrophic events, or economic repercussions from those events could reduce our sales or increase our costs.
- We may issue additional securities, including securities that are senior in right of dividends, liquidation, and voting to our common stock, without your approval, which would dilute your existing ownership interests.
- nuevo"Existing and further oil and gas development in the Designated Potash Area could impair our potash reserves, which could adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations."
- The mining business is capital intensive and our inability to fund necessary or desirable capital expenditures could have an adverse effect on our growth and profitability.
- The loss or substantial decline in revenue from larger customers or certain industries could have a material adverse effect on our revenues, profitability, and liquidity.
- Risks Related to Compliance, Regulatory and Legal Issues
- nuevoWe may face significant product liability claims and product recalls, which could harm our business and reputation.
- Environmental, Safety, and Health Matters
- The future issuance and sale of additional shares of our common stock or an announcement that the issuances and sales may occur, may adversely affect the market price of our common stock.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001421461-26-000008