KAISER ALUMINUM CORP
KALUAluminio · semielaboradosactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $1.26B | 15.8% | $163.3M | 2026-07-23 | 0001193125-26-314580 |
| 2026Q1 | $1.11B | 14.8% | $128.2M | 2026-04-23 | 0001193125-26-173882 |
| 2025Q4 | $929.0M | 13.3% | $91.5M | 2026-02-19 | 0001193125-26-059575 |
| 2025Q3 | $843.5M | 13.6% | $80.8M | 2025-10-23 | 0001193125-25-248835 |
| 2025Q2 | $823.1M | 12.2% | $67.6M | 2025-07-24 | 0000950170-25-098410 |
| 2025Q1 | $777.4M | 13.4% | $71.4M | 2025-04-24 | 0000950170-25-058170 |
| 2024Q4 | $765.4M | 12.5% | $68.1M | 2025-02-20 | 0000950170-25-024313 |
| 2024Q3 | $747.7M | 9.6% | $42.2M | 2024-10-24 | 0000950170-24-117104 |
| 2024Q2 | $773.4M | 13.4% | $65.2M | 2024-07-26 | 0000950170-24-086678 |
| 2024Q1 | $737.5M | 11.7% | $53.1M | 2024-04-25 | 0000950170-24-048441 |
| 2023Q4 | $721.7M | 15.0% | $77.1M | 2024-02-23 | 0000950170-24-018958 |
| 2023Q3 | $743.6M | 10.5% | $46.3M | 2023-10-26 | 0000950170-23-055699 |
| 2023Q2 | $814.1M | 11.8% | $62.3M | 2023-07-28 | 0000950170-23-035269 |
| 2023Q1 | $807.6M | 9.5% | $45.4M | 2023-04-28 | 0000950170-23-015423 |
| 2022Q4 | $776.0M | 7.1% | $4.3M | 2023-02-24 | 0000950170-23-004215 |
| 2022Q3 | $748.9M | 7.2% | $28.8M | 2022-10-25 | 0000950170-22-020028 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| aluminum primaria (a priori) | 51% | 37 | 0.5 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017Q4 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 0.03 | “a 3% increase in average realized sales price per pound” | rechazado |
| 2025Q1 | shipments_kmt | 275.6 | “Shipments Net sales Shipments Net sales Shipment Change % Increase (Decrease) Net sales Change % Increase (Decrease) Aero/HS Products 56.3 $ 214.7 62.9 $ 220.5 (6.6 ) (10 %) $ (5.8 ) (3 %) Packaging 1” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 0.24 | “The increase in Net sales reflected an increase in the average realized sales price per pound of $0.24 (9%)” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 0.06 | “reflecting a $0.06/lb (2%) decrease in average realized sales price per pound.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q4 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 2.34 | “Net sales $ 2,622.0 $ 2.34 $ 1,172.7 $ 2.33” | rechazado |
| 2020Q4 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 0.09 | “a $0.09/lb (4%) decrease in average realized sales price per pound” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q2 | shipments_kmt | 118.6 | “Shipments (mmlbs) 48.2 64.0 114.6 131.0” | rechazado |
| 2021Q4 | shipments_kmt | 1121.6 | “Total: Shipments (mmlbs) 1,121.6 502.4 $ $ / lb $ $ / lb” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q4 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 0.39 | “a $0.39/lb increase in average realized sales price per pound” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q2 | shipments_kmt | 288.4 | “Shipments 288.4 $ 823.1 296.8 $ 773.4 (8.4 ) (3 %) $ 49.7 6 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q3 | shipments_kmt | 270.2 | “Shipments Net sales Shipments Net sales Shipment Change % Increase (Decrease) Net sales Change % Increase (Decrease) Aero/HS Products 41.8 $ 182.2 59.5 $ 213.1 (17.7 ) (30 %) $ (30.9 ) (15 %) Packagin” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | shipments_kmt | 2 | “a 2% increase in Fabricated Products segment shipment volume” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q3 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 0.56 | “The increase in Net sales reflected an increase in the average realized sales price per pound of $0.56 (22%).” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 33 | “The increase in Net sales reflected a $0.94 per pound (33%) increase in the average realized sales price and an 18.8 million pound (7%) increase in shipment volume.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2017Q4 | avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 0.26 | “an increase of 10% in average realized sales price per pound” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | shipments_kmt | 132.6 | “a 132.6 million pound (12%) increase in shipment volume” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q2 | avg_realized_price_usd_mt | 1.26 | “The increase in Net sales primarily reflects $1.26 per pound (44%) increase in the average realized sales price and 17.3 million pound (6%) increase in shipment volume.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | shipments_kmt | 294.4 | “Shipments 294.4 $ 1,106.8 275.6 $ 777.4 18.8 7 % $ 329.4 42 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q2 | shipments_kmt | 4.4 | “a 4.4 million pound, or 6%, increase in GE products reflecting the continued solid underlying demand for our GE applications” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | alumina_shipments_kmt | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2021Q3 | shipments_kmt | 315.2 | “Shipments (mmlbs) 42.1 27.3 119.0 141.9” | rechazado |
| 2026Q2 | shipments_kmt | 305.7 | “Shipments Net sales Shipments Net sales Shipment Change % Increase (Decrease) Net sales Change % Increase (Decrease) Aero/HS Products 60.8 $ 305.3 59.9 $ 227.9 0.9 2 % $ 77.4 34 % Packaging 155.8 580.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | shipments_kmt | 27 | “VAR for our aerospace applications during the quarter ended March 31, 2020 increased approximately 4% from the quarter ended March 31, 2019 on a 1% decrease in shipments, reflecting favorable pricing ” | rechazado |
| 2021Q2 | shipments_kmt | 336.6 | “Total: Shipments (mmlbs) 336.6 118.6 473.5 274.2” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q4 | shipments_kmt | 122.6 | “A 122.6 million pound (20%) decrease in shipment volume” | auditado ✓ |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica aluminum y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 64% | 25 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 44% | 25 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 56% | 25 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 60% | 25 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_realized_price_usd_mt (MD&A verificado) vs aluminum — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
38 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-19, verbatim del documento. 5 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.
- We operate in a highly competitive industry.
- Reductions in demand for our products may be more severe than, and may occur prior to, reductions in demand for our customers’ products.
- Our customers may reduce their demand for aluminum products in favor of alternative materials.
- nuevoOur customers may reduce their demand for our products as a result of the government relaxing or delaying fuel efficiency or emissions standards or if oil prices remain low for a protracted period of time.
- The commercial aerospace industry is cyclical and subject to disruption. Downturns in the commercial aerospace industry could adversely affect our business.
- Reductions in defense spending for aerospace and non-aerospace military applications could adversely affect demand for our products.
- Downturns in the automotive and ground transportation industries could adversely affect our business.
- Changes in consumer demand for particular motor vehicles could adversely affect our business.
- We depend on a core group of significant customers.
- We experience fluctuation in certain costs that we cannot pass through to our customers and face pressure from our customers on pricing.
- Our industry is very sensitive to foreign economic, regulatory and political factors that may adversely affect our business.
- We may experience difficulties in the launch or production ramp-up of new products which could adversely affect our business.
- Unplanned events may interrupt our production operations, which may adversely affect our business.
- We may face challenges to our intellectual property rights which could adversely affect our reputation, business and competitive position.
- nuevoWe rely on third parties to provide certain services that are critical to our operation.
- We may not be able to successfully implement our productivity enhancement and cost reduction initiatives that are necessary to offset competitive price pressure.
- Our investment and other expansion projects may not be completed, start up as scheduled or deliver the expected capacity and other benefits.
- nuevoWe rely on Alcoa Corporation (“Alcoa”) for certain resources essential to the day-to-day operation of our business at Warrick.
- Our business could be adversely affected by pricing and availability of primary aluminum.
- Our business could be adversely affected by the pricing and availability of recycled scrap aluminum.
- nuevoVolatility in aluminum prices can impact our borrowing availability and cause our liquidity to decline.
- Our hedging programs have been and could continue to be adversely impacted by fluctuations as a result of the impacts of supply chain disruptions, geopolitical activity and general economic conditions.
- Our hedging programs may limit the income and cash flows we would otherwise expect to receive if our hedging programs were not in place and may otherwise affect our business.
- Covenants and events of default in our debt instruments could limit our ability to undertake certain types of transactions and adversely affect our liquidity.
- Restrictive covenants in our debt instruments contain significant qualifications and exceptions.
… 13 más en risk_factors.json
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