KAISER ALUMINUM CORP

KALUAluminio · semielaboradosactualizado 2026-07-28
Precio
$162.16
IV prob-weighted
$229.00
Gap
41%
TTM EBITDA≈
$463.8M
Net debt
$979.8M
Margen (percentil hist.)
53%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 9.35–14.28× EV/EBITDA (mediana 10.64×, 1867 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 15.8%, percentil 53% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata aluminum anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 51% (n=37, p=0.5): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
realizedPrecio realizado (avg_realized_price_usd_mt) vs spot: corr niveles 0.474, Δ 0.165, captura β 66.1 (n=10): el spot llega al P&L de forma parcial y con ruido trimestral — mismo cuello de botella que ALTO. [realized_model.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +447 bps alineados a 20d (hit 56%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual +41%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia24/26 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (14 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 0% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 100% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.378: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 64%, OLS commodity 44%, OLS+coste 56%, signo+coste 60%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 38 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-19, 5 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20. Concentracion: demanda competencia 10, operacional 8, financiero 8. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$1.26B15.8%$163.3M2026-07-230001193125-26-314580
2026Q1$1.11B14.8%$128.2M2026-04-230001193125-26-173882
2025Q4$929.0M13.3%$91.5M2026-02-190001193125-26-059575
2025Q3$843.5M13.6%$80.8M2025-10-230001193125-25-248835
2025Q2$823.1M12.2%$67.6M2025-07-240000950170-25-098410
2025Q1$777.4M13.4%$71.4M2025-04-240000950170-25-058170
2024Q4$765.4M12.5%$68.1M2025-02-200000950170-25-024313
2024Q3$747.7M9.6%$42.2M2024-10-240000950170-24-117104
2024Q2$773.4M13.4%$65.2M2024-07-260000950170-24-086678
2024Q1$737.5M11.7%$53.1M2024-04-250000950170-24-048441
2023Q4$721.7M15.0%$77.1M2024-02-230000950170-24-018958
2023Q3$743.6M10.5%$46.3M2023-10-260000950170-23-055699
2023Q2$814.1M11.8%$62.3M2023-07-280000950170-23-035269
2023Q1$807.6M9.5%$45.4M2023-04-280000950170-23-015423
2022Q4$776.0M7.1%$4.3M2023-02-240000950170-23-004215
2022Q3$748.9M7.2%$28.8M2022-10-250000950170-22-020028

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
aluminum primaria (a priori)51%370.5

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)

Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)

TrimestreMétricaValorCita textualEstado
2017Q4avg_realized_price_usd_mt0.03a 3% increase in average realized sales price per poundrechazado
2025Q1shipments_kmt275.6Shipments Net sales Shipments Net sales Shipment Change % Increase (Decrease) Net sales Change % Increase (Decrease) Aero/HS Products 56.3 $ 214.7 62.9 $ 220.5 (6.6 ) (10 %) $ (5.8 ) (3 %) Packaging 1rechazado
2025Q2avg_realized_price_usd_mt0.24The increase in Net sales reflected an increase in the average realized sales price per pound of $0.24 (9%)auditado ✓
2020Q1avg_realized_price_usd_mt0.06reflecting a $0.06/lb (2%) decrease in average realized sales price per pound.auditado ✓
2021Q4avg_realized_price_usd_mt2.34Net sales $ 2,622.0 $ 2.34 $ 1,172.7 $ 2.33rechazado
2020Q4avg_realized_price_usd_mt0.09a $0.09/lb (4%) decrease in average realized sales price per poundauditado ✓
2020Q2shipments_kmt118.6Shipments (mmlbs) 48.2 64.0 114.6 131.0rechazado
2021Q4shipments_kmt1121.6Total: Shipments (mmlbs) 1,121.6 502.4 $ $ / lb $ $ / lbauditado ✓
2022Q4avg_realized_price_usd_mt0.39a $0.39/lb increase in average realized sales price per poundauditado ✓
2025Q2shipments_kmt288.4Shipments 288.4 $ 823.1 296.8 $ 773.4 (8.4 ) (3 %) $ 49.7 6 %auditado ✓
2025Q3shipments_kmt270.2Shipments Net sales Shipments Net sales Shipment Change % Increase (Decrease) Net sales Change % Increase (Decrease) Aero/HS Products 41.8 $ 182.2 59.5 $ 213.1 (17.7 ) (30 %) $ (30.9 ) (15 %) Packaginrechazado
2017Q4shipments_kmt2a 2% increase in Fabricated Products segment shipment volumeauditado ✓
2025Q3avg_realized_price_usd_mt0.56The increase in Net sales reflected an increase in the average realized sales price per pound of $0.56 (22%).auditado ✓
2026Q1avg_realized_price_usd_mt33The increase in Net sales reflected a $0.94 per pound (33%) increase in the average realized sales price and an 18.8 million pound (7%) increase in shipment volume.auditado ✓
2017Q4avg_realized_alumina_usd_mt0rechazado
2018Q2avg_realized_price_usd_mt0.26an increase of 10% in average realized sales price per poundrechazado
2022Q4shipments_kmt132.6a 132.6 million pound (12%) increase in shipment volumeauditado ✓
2026Q2avg_realized_price_usd_mt1.26The increase in Net sales primarily reflects $1.26 per pound (44%) increase in the average realized sales price and 17.3 million pound (6%) increase in shipment volume.auditado ✓
2026Q1shipments_kmt294.4Shipments 294.4 $ 1,106.8 275.6 $ 777.4 18.8 7 % $ 329.4 42 %auditado ✓
2018Q2shipments_kmt4.4a 4.4 million pound, or 6%, increase in GE products reflecting the continued solid underlying demand for our GE applicationsrechazado
2017Q4alumina_shipments_kmt0rechazado
2021Q3shipments_kmt315.2Shipments (mmlbs) 42.1 27.3 119.0 141.9rechazado
2026Q2shipments_kmt305.7Shipments Net sales Shipments Net sales Shipment Change % Increase (Decrease) Net sales Change % Increase (Decrease) Aero/HS Products 60.8 $ 305.3 59.9 $ 227.9 0.9 2 % $ 77.4 34 % Packaging 155.8 580.auditado ✓
2020Q1shipments_kmt27VAR for our aerospace applications during the quarter ended March 31, 2020 increased approximately 4% from the quarter ended March 31, 2019 on a 1% decrease in shipments, reflecting favorable pricing rechazado
2021Q2shipments_kmt336.6Total: Shipments (mmlbs) 336.6 118.6 473.5 274.2auditado ✓
2020Q4shipments_kmt122.6A 122.6 million pound (20%) decrease in shipment volumeauditado ✓

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica aluminum y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres

R² del commodity
0%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
100%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.38
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor64%25
OLS sobre el commodity44%25
OLS + momentum de coste56%25
Signo + momentum de coste60%25

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)

avg_realized_price_usd_mt (MD&A verificado) vs aluminum — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado

Corr. niveles
0.47
Corr. Δ trimestral
0.17
β captura Δ%spot→Δ%real
66.10
n pares
10

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+56 bps
hit 54% · n=37
5d tras filing
+43 bps
hit 53% · n=36
20d tras filing
+447 bps
hit 56% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

38 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-19, verbatim del documento. 5 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-20.

demanda competencia 10operacional 8financiero 8precio commodity 6coste insumos 5regulatorio 5geopolitico 4clima agua 2laboral 2ciberseguridad 1
  • We operate in a highly competitive industry.
  • Reductions in demand for our products may be more severe than, and may occur prior to, reductions in demand for our customers’ products.
  • Our customers may reduce their demand for aluminum products in favor of alternative materials.
  • nuevoOur customers may reduce their demand for our products as a result of the government relaxing or delaying fuel efficiency or emissions standards or if oil prices remain low for a protracted period of time.
  • The commercial aerospace industry is cyclical and subject to disruption. Downturns in the commercial aerospace industry could adversely affect our business.
  • Reductions in defense spending for aerospace and non-aerospace military applications could adversely affect demand for our products.
  • Downturns in the automotive and ground transportation industries could adversely affect our business.
  • Changes in consumer demand for particular motor vehicles could adversely affect our business.
  • We depend on a core group of significant customers.
  • We experience fluctuation in certain costs that we cannot pass through to our customers and face pressure from our customers on pricing.
  • Our industry is very sensitive to foreign economic, regulatory and political factors that may adversely affect our business.
  • We may experience difficulties in the launch or production ramp-up of new products which could adversely affect our business.
  • Unplanned events may interrupt our production operations, which may adversely affect our business.
  • We may face challenges to our intellectual property rights which could adversely affect our reputation, business and competitive position.
  • nuevoWe rely on third parties to provide certain services that are critical to our operation.
  • We may not be able to successfully implement our productivity enhancement and cost reduction initiatives that are necessary to offset competitive price pressure.
  • Our investment and other expansion projects may not be completed, start up as scheduled or deliver the expected capacity and other benefits.
  • nuevoWe rely on Alcoa Corporation (“Alcoa”) for certain resources essential to the day-to-day operation of our business at Warrick.
  • Our business could be adversely affected by pricing and availability of primary aluminum.
  • Our business could be adversely affected by the pricing and availability of recycled scrap aluminum.
  • nuevoVolatility in aluminum prices can impact our borrowing availability and cause our liquidity to decline.
  • Our hedging programs have been and could continue to be adversely impacted by fluctuations as a result of the impacts of supply chain disruptions, geopolitical activity and general economic conditions.
  • Our hedging programs may limit the income and cash flows we would otherwise expect to receive if our hedging programs were not in place and may otherwise affect our business.
  • Covenants and events of default in our debt instruments could limit our ability to undertake certain types of transactions and adversely affect our liquidity.
  • Restrictive covenants in our debt instruments contain significant qualifications and exceptions.

13 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001193125-26-059575

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)