KENNAMETAL INC
KMTW: carburo y herramienta · carburo cementado + herramienta de corteactualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 608.000 | 606.000–610.000 | 8 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 605.000–660.000 | 61 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 54 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 49 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.280.000–1.430.000 | 57 |
| 2026-03 | 1.485.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 50 |
| 2026-02 | 1.000.000 | 940.000–1.033.300 | 43 |
| 2026-01 | 753.035,5 | 700.000–795.000 | 62 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–650.000 | 65 |
| 2025-11 | 471.400 | 453.000–484.000 | 54 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 60 |
| 2025-09 | 404.800 | 398.000–410.000 | 61 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $592.6M | 35.1% | $117.6M | 2026-05-06 | 0001628280-26-031335 |
| 2025Q4 | $529.5M | 32.8% | $87.0M | 2026-02-04 | 0001628280-26-005371 |
| 2025Q3 | $498.0M | 31.0% | $72.6M | 2025-11-05 | 0001628280-25-049444 |
| 2025Q2 | $516.4M | 28.2% | $66.4M | 2025-08-12 | 0000055242-25-000068 |
| 2025Q1 | $486.4M | 32.1% | $77.9M | 2025-05-07 | 0000055242-25-000046 |
| 2024Q4 | $482.1M | 30.1% | $65.7M | 2025-02-07 | 0000055242-25-000021 |
| 2024Q3 | $481.9M | 31.3% | $69.6M | 2024-11-06 | 0000055242-24-000067 |
| 2024Q2 | $543.3M | 31.5% | $105.0M | 2024-08-12 | 0000055242-24-000055 |
| 2024Q1 | $515.8M | 29.7% | $58.7M | 2024-05-10 | 0000055242-24-000026 |
| 2023Q4 | $495.3M | 28.2% | n/d | 2024-02-07 | 0000055242-24-000008 |
| 2023Q3 | $492.5M | 33.1% | $75.6M | 2023-11-03 | 0000055242-23-000051 |
| 2023Q2 | $550.2M | 31.9% | $98.2M | 2023-08-09 | 0000055242-23-000040 |
| 2023Q1 | $536.0M | 31.3% | $83.7M | 2023-05-03 | 0000055242-23-000022 |
| 2022Q4 | $497.1M | 28.7% | n/d | 2023-02-08 | 0000055242-23-000014 |
| 2022Q3 | $494.8M | 32.3% | $78.0M | 2022-11-03 | 0000055242-22-000047 |
| 2022Q2 | $530.0M | 32.0% | $106.4M | 2022-08-10 | 0000055242-22-000039 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — w_tooling_spread 11.7% QTD · a 2026-08-05
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| w_tooling_spread primaria (a priori) | 39% | 31 | 0.9252 |
| tungsten_apt | 100% | 1 | 0.5 |
| tooling_spread | 47% | 36 | 0.6911 |
| cutting_tool_ppi | 57% | 35 | 0.2498 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica tooling_spread y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 42% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 54% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste mejor | 58% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 54% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
20 factores del 10-K de 2025-08-12, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2024-08-12.
- nuevoThe conflict in the Middle East, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other conflicts could adversely affect our business.
- Public health threats or outbreaks of communicable diseases could have a material adverse effect on our operations and financial results.
- Downturns in the business cycle could adversely affect our sales and profitability.
- Our international operations pose certain risks that may adversely affect sales and earnings.
- Additional tax expense or exposures could affect our financial condition and results of operations.
- Implementation of tariffs and changes to or uncertainties related to tariffs and trade agreements could adversely affect our business.
- Natural disasters or other global or regional catastrophic events could disrupt our operations and adversely affect results.
- Changes in the regulatory environment, including environmental, health and safety regulations, could subject us to increased compliance and manufacturing costs, which could have a material adverse effect on our business.
- Regulations affecting the mining and drilling industries, utilities industry or the use of fossil fuels.
- Climate change and resulting legal or regulatory responses.
- Product liability claims could have a material adverse effect on our business.
- Our restructuring efforts may not have the intended effects.
- We may not be able to complete, manage or integrate acquisitions successfully.
- Impairment of goodwill could result in a negative effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
- Our continued success depends on our ability to protect and defend our intellectual property.
- If we are unable to retain our qualified management and employees, our business may be negatively affected.
- We operate in a highly competitive environment.
- Failure of, or a breach in security of, our information technology systems could adversely affect our business.
- Our future operating results may be affected by fluctuations in the prices and availability of raw materials.
- Restrictions contained in our revolving credit facility and other debt agreements may limit our ability to incur additional indebtedness.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000055242-25-000068