LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS INC
LECOW: consumibles industriales · soldadura: electrodos de tungstenoactualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 610.000 | 610.000–610.000 | 5 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 600.000–660.000 | 88 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 73 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 64 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.340.000–1.430.000 | 77 |
| 2026-03 | 1.490.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 70 |
| 2026-02 | 995.000 | 920.000–1.033.300 | 58 |
| 2026-01 | 751.071 | 710.000–795.000 | 84 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–630.000 | 93 |
| 2025-11 | 472.000 | 460.000–484.000 | 75 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 79 |
| 2025-09 | 403.400 | 398.000–410.000 | 78 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $1.22B | 36.8% | $246.6M | 2026-07-30 | 0000059527-26-000022 |
| 2026Q1 | $1.12B | 35.6% | $212.2M | 2026-04-30 | 0000059527-26-000012 |
| 2025Q4 | $1.08B | 34.7% | $209.9M | 2026-02-25 | 0000059527-26-000006 |
| 2025Q3 | $1.06B | 36.7% | $201.4M | 2025-10-30 | 0000059527-25-000032 |
| 2025Q2 | $1.09B | 37.3% | $216.6M | 2025-07-31 | 0000059527-25-000024 |
| 2025Q1 | $1.00B | 36.4% | $188.7M | 2025-04-30 | 0000059527-25-000013 |
| 2024Q4 | $1.02B | 36.1% | $200.2M | 2025-02-26 | 0000059527-25-000006 |
| 2024Q3 | $983.8M | 35.8% | $168.2M | 2024-10-31 | 0000059527-24-000036 |
| 2024Q2 | $1.02B | 37.6% | $169.7M | 2024-07-31 | 0000059527-24-000029 |
| 2024Q1 | $981.2M | 37.5% | $186.6M | 2024-04-25 | 0000059527-24-000015 |
| 2023Q4 | $1.06B | 35.0% | $226.0M | 2024-02-27 | 0000059527-24-000008 |
| 2023Q3 | $1.03B | 35.4% | $192.9M | 2023-10-27 | 0000059527-23-000035 |
| 2023Q2 | $1.06B | 35.2% | $199.9M | 2023-07-27 | 0000059527-23-000027 |
| 2023Q1 | $1.04B | 34.2% | $185.7M | 2023-04-27 | 0000059527-23-000010 |
| 2022Q4 | $930.9M | 33.1% | $160.5M | 2023-02-21 | 0000059527-23-000004 |
| 2022Q3 | $935.2M | 33.1% | $161.4M | 2022-10-27 | 0000059527-22-000033 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| fabricated_metal_ppi primaria (a priori) | 57% | 37 | 0.2557 |
| indpro | 62% | 37 | 0.0939 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica fabricated_metal_ppi y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 60% | 25 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 40% | 25 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 40% | 25 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 52% | 25 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
18 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-25, verbatim del documento. 3 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-26.
- General economic, financial and market conditions may adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations and access to capital markets for our business.
- We conduct our sales and distribution operations on a worldwide basis and maintain manufacturing facilities in a number of foreign countries, which subjects us to risks associated with doing business outside the United States.
- The cyclical nature and maturity of the arc welding and cutting industry in developed markets may adversely affect our performance.
- nuevoRisks Related to Manufacturing and Operations
- Availability of and volatility in energy costs or raw material prices may adversely affect our business.
- We are subject to risks relating to our information systems and data that could have an adverse effect on our business strategy, results of operations and financial condition.
- nuevoWe may be incorporating AI technologies into our products, services and processes. These technologies may present business, compliance and reputational risks.
- Our operations depend on maintaining a skilled workforce, and any interruption in our workforce could negatively impact our results of operations and financial condition.
- We may not be able to complete our acquisition or divestiture strategies, successfully integrate acquired businesses and, in certain cases, we may be required to retain liabilities for certain matters relating to divestitures.
- The competitive pressures we face could harm our revenue, results of operations and prospects.
- We may incur additional restructuring charges as we continue to contemplate rationalization actions in an effort to optimize our cost structure, and, as a result, we may not achieve the anticipated savings and benefits of these actions.
- We are a co-defendant in litigation alleging asbestos induced illness. Liabilities relating to such litigation could reduce our profitability and impair our financial condition.
- We may incur material losses and costs as a result of product liability claims that may be brought against us or failure to meet contractual performance commitments.
- Changes in tax rates or exposure to additional income tax liabilities could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.
- Evolving international laws and enforcement relating to data privacy could adversely affect our operations.
- Our global operations are subject to increasingly complex environmental regulatory requirements.
- nuevoAs a provider of products to the U.S. government, we are subject to additional risks related to unusual performance conditions and enhanced compliance risks, which could have an adverse effect our results of operations and financial condition.
- We may be exposed to certain regulatory and financial risks related to climate change.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000059527-26-000006