LAM RESEARCH CORP
LRCXW: semiconductores · equipos de deposición de tungstenoactualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 610.000 | 610.000–610.000 | 5 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 600.000–660.000 | 88 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 73 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 64 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.340.000–1.430.000 | 77 |
| 2026-03 | 1.490.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 70 |
| 2026-02 | 995.000 | 920.000–1.033.300 | 58 |
| 2026-01 | 751.071 | 710.000–795.000 | 84 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–630.000 | 93 |
| 2025-11 | 472.000 | 460.000–484.000 | 75 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 79 |
| 2025-09 | 403.400 | 398.000–410.000 | 78 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $5.84B | 49.8% | n/d | 2026-04-23 | 0000707549-26-000022 |
| 2025Q4 | $5.34B | 49.6% | n/d | 2026-01-29 | 0000707549-26-000009 |
| 2025Q3 | $5.32B | 50.4% | $1.93B | 2025-10-24 | 0000707549-25-000085 |
| 2025Q2 | $5.17B | 50.1% | $1.84B | 2025-08-11 | 0000707549-25-000075 |
| 2025Q1 | $4.72B | 49.0% | $1.64B | 2025-04-25 | 0000707549-25-000054 |
| 2024Q4 | $4.38B | 47.4% | n/d | 2025-01-31 | 0000707549-25-000014 |
| 2024Q3 | $4.17B | 48.0% | $1.36B | 2024-10-28 | 0000707549-24-000128 |
| 2024Q2 | $3.87B | 47.5% | $1.21B | 2024-08-29 | 0000707549-24-000106 |
| 2024Q1 | $3.79B | 47.5% | $1.14B | 2024-04-29 | 0000707549-24-000067 |
| 2023Q4 | $3.76B | 46.8% | n/d | 2024-01-29 | 0000707549-24-000016 |
| 2023Q3 | $3.48B | 47.5% | $1.11B | 2023-10-23 | 0000707549-23-000115 |
| 2023Q2 | $3.21B | 45.5% | $944.2M | 2023-08-15 | 0000707549-23-000102 |
| 2023Q1 | $3.87B | 41.5% | $1.01B | 2023-04-24 | 0000707549-23-000081 |
| 2022Q4 | $5.28B | 45.0% | n/d | 2023-01-30 | 0000707549-23-000008 |
| 2022Q3 | $5.07B | 46.1% | $1.77B | 2022-10-24 | 0000707549-22-000124 |
| 2022Q2 | $4.64B | 45.3% | $1.57B | 2022-08-24 | 0000707549-22-000107 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — semis_ip 2.5% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| semis_ip primaria (a priori) | 64% | 36 | 0.0662 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica semis_ip y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 71% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 42% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 63% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 63% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
30 factores del 10-K de 2025-08-11, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2024-08-29.
- We Depend on Creating New Products and Processes and Enhancing Existing Products and Processes for Our Success; Consequently, We Are Subject to Risks Associated with Rapid Technological Change
- We Face a Challenging and Complex Competitive Environment
- Once a Semiconductor Manufacturer Commits to Purchase a Competitor’s Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, the Manufacturer Typically Continues to Purchase That Competitor’s Equipment, Making It More Difficult for Us to Sell Our Equipment to That Customer
- The Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Is Subject to Variability and Periods of Rapid Growth or Decline; We Therefore Face Risks Related to Our Strategic Resource Allocation Decisions
- Future Declines in the Semiconductor Industry, and the Overall World Economic Conditions on Which It Is Significantly Dependent, Could Have a Material Adverse Impact on Our Results of Operations and Financial Condition
- We Have a Limited Number of Key Customers
- Strategic Alliances and Customer Consolidation May Have Negative Effects on Our Business
- Our Revenues and Operating Results Are Variable
- Our Business Relies on Technology, Data, Intellectual Property and Other Sensitive Information That is Susceptible to Cybersecurity and Other Threats or Incidents
- Our Future Success Depends Heavily on International Sales and the Management of Global Operations
- Our Sales to Customers in China, a Significant Region for Us, Have Been Impacted, and are Likely to Be Materially and Adversely Affected by Export License Requirements and Other Regulatory Changes, or Other Governmental Actions in the Course of the Trade Relationship Between the U.S. and China
- Disruptions to Our Supply Chain and Outsource Providers Could Impact Our Ability to Meet Demand, Increase Our Costs, and Adversely Impact Our Revenue and Operating Results
- We May Not Achieve the Expected Benefits of Our Restructuring Plans and Business Transformation Initiatives, and These Efforts Could Have a Material Adverse Effect on Our Business, Operations, Financial Condition, Results of Operations and Competitive Position
- We Face Risks Related to the Disruption of Our Primary Manufacturing and R&D Facilities
- nuevoEpidemics, Pandemics or Outbreaks of Diseases May Adversely Impact Our Business, Operations, and Financial Results
- We Are Subject to Risks Relating to Product Concentration and Lack of Product Revenue Diversification
- We May Fail to Protect Our Critical Proprietary Technology Rights, Which Could Affect Our Business
- Our Ability to Attract, Retain, and Motivate Key Employees Is Critical to Our Success
- If We Choose to Acquire or Dispose of Businesses, Product Lines, and Technologies, We May Encounter Unforeseen Costs and Difficulties That Could Impair Our Financial Performance
- Increasing and Evolving Environmental Regulations May Adversely Affect Our Operating Results
- Intellectual Property, Indemnity, and Other Claims Against Us Can Be Costly and We Could Lose Significant Rights That Are Necessary to Our Continued Business and Profitability
- We Are Exposed to Various Risks from Our Regulatory Environment
- Our Financial Results May Be Adversely Impacted by Higher than Expected Tax Rates or Exposure to Additional Tax Liabilities
- Our Bylaws Designate the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware as the Sole and Exclusive Judicial Forum for Certain Legal Actions Between the Company and its Stockholders, Which May Discourage Lawsuits with Respect to Such Claims
- The Market for Our Common Stock Is Volatile, Which May Affect Our Ability to Raise Capital or Make Acquisitions or May Subject Our Business to Additional Costs
… 5 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000707549-25-000075