LSB INDUSTRIES, INC.
LXUFertilizante nitrogenado · quimica nitrogenadaactualizado 2026-08-03Precio
$9.82
IV prob-weighted
$11.39
Gap
16%
TTM EBITDA≈
$146.8M
Net debt
$421.0M
Margen (percentil hist.)
32%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 5.84–10.71× EV/EBITDA (mediana 9.09×, 1258 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 6.8%, percentil 32% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata nitrogen_spread anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 65% (n=37, p=0.0494): señal operativa utilizable. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: nitrogen_ppi 68% (n=37, p=0.0235). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +29 bps alineados a 20d (hit 50%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual +16%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 4% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 96% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.339: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 72%, OLS commodity 68%, OLS+coste 60%, signo+coste 64%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 31 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-26, 1 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27. Concentracion: operacional 9, demanda competencia 5, financiero 5. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $168.1M | 6.8% | $19.2M | 2026-07-30 | 0001193125-26-326147 |
| 2026Q1 | $169.5M | 21.1% | $44.1M | 2026-04-30 | 0001193125-26-197288 |
| 2025Q4 | $165.0M | 25.0% | $48.5M | 2026-02-26 | 0001193125-26-076810 |
| 2025Q3 | $155.4M | 16.4% | $35.0M | 2025-10-30 | 0001193125-25-258545 |
| 2025Q2 | $151.3M | 15.3% | $31.1M | 2025-07-30 | 0000950170-25-100258 |
| 2025Q1 | $143.4M | 10.0% | $24.6M | 2025-04-30 | 0000950170-25-061149 |
| 2024Q4 | $134.9M | 4.5% | $15.2M | 2025-02-27 | 0000950170-25-029046 |
| 2024Q3 | $109.2M | -7.3% | $-7.8M | 2024-10-30 | 0000950170-24-118995 |
| 2024Q2 | $140.1M | 19.6% | $33.1M | 2024-08-01 | 0000950170-24-089292 |
| 2024Q1 | $138.2M | 16.1% | $28.4M | 2024-04-30 | 0000950170-24-050522 |
| 2023Q4 | $132.6M | 9.1% | $22.3M | 2024-03-06 | 0000950170-24-027144 |
| 2023Q3 | $114.3M | -3.0% | $5.9M | 2023-11-02 | 0000950170-23-058209 |
| 2023Q2 | $165.8M | 21.7% | $44.5M | 2023-07-27 | 0000950170-23-035135 |
| 2023Q1 | $181.0M | 23.0% | $48.0M | 2023-05-03 | 0000950170-23-017168 |
| 2022Q4 | $233.7M | 39.6% | $99.6M | 2023-02-23 | 0000950170-23-004101 |
| 2022Q3 | $184.3M | 12.0% | $29.2M | 2022-11-02 | 0000950170-22-021253 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| nitrogen_spread primaria (a priori) | 65% | 37 | 0.0494 |
| nitrogen_ppi | 68% | 37 | 0.0235 |
| natgas | 46% | 37 | 0.7443 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica nitrogen_spread y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
R² del commodity
4%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
96%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.34
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 72% | 25 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 68% | 25 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 60% | 25 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 64% | 25 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
+9 bps
hit 54% · n=37
5d tras filing
-18 bps
hit 50% · n=36
20d tras filing
+29 bps
hit 50% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
31 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-26, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27.
operacional 9demanda competencia 5financiero 5regulatorio 4coste insumos 3clima agua 3geopolitico 3laboral 2precio commodity 2ciberseguridad 1
- Cost and the lack of availability of raw materials could materially affect our profitability.
- We are reliant on a limited number of key facilities.
- The age of our chemical manufacturing facilities increases the risk for unplanned downtime, which may be significant.
- Our operations and the production and handling of our products involve significant risks and hazards.
- Our transportation and distribution activities rely on third-party providers, which subject us to risks and uncertainties beyond our control that may adversely affect our operations.
- We may not be successful in the development and implementation of our low carbon ammonia projects in a timely or economic manner, or at all.
- There is intense competition in the markets we serve.
- A major factor underlying the current high level of demand for our nitrogen-based fertilizer products is the production of ethanol. A decrease in ethanol production or an increase in ethanol imports could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.
- Seasonality can adversely affect our business.
- A substantial portion of our sales is dependent upon a limited number of customers.
- Our business is subject to risks involving derivatives and the risk that our hedging activities might not be effective.
- Cybersecurity risks could adversely affect our business.
- We may engage in certain strategic transactions which may adversely affect our financial condition.
- Our business and customers are sensitive to adverse economic cycles and a prolonged deterioration of global market and economic conditions could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flow
- nuevoAn increase of imported nitrogen based products could adversely affect our business.
- Adverse weather conditions and climate change could adversely affect our business.
- Geopolitical conditions, including political turmoil and volatility, regional conflicts, terrorism and war have negatively affected and could negatively affect United States and foreign companies, the financial markets, the industries where we operate, our operations and our profitability.
- We may not be able to generate sufficient cash to service our debt and may be required to take other actions to satisfy the obligations under our debt agreements, which may not be successful.
- Our substantial indebtedness level could limit our financial and operating activities, and adversely affect our ability to incur additional debt to fund future needs.
- Despite our current levels of debt, we may still incur more debt ranking senior or equal in right of payment with our existing obligations, including secured debt, which would increase the risks described herein.
- Current and future legislative or regulatory requirements affecting our business may result in increased costs and decreased revenues, cash flows and liquidity or could have other negative effects on our business.
- We may be required to modify or expand our operating, sales and reporting procedures and to install additional equipment in order to comply with current and possible future government regulations.
- Proposed and existing governmental laws and regulations relating to greenhouse gas and other air emissions may subject certain of our operations and customers to significant new costs and restrictions on their operations and may reduce sales of our products.
- Laws, regulations or other issues related to climate change could have a material adverse effect on us.
- Loss of key personnel and other employees, including those with engineering and technical expertise, could negatively affect our business.
… 6 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001193125-26-076810
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)