MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC

MSMW: distribucion MRO · distribuidor especializado en herramienta de corteactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$124.91
IV prob-weighted
$77.06
Gap
-38%
TTM EBITDA≈
$446.5M
Net debt
$432.7M
Margen (percentil hist.)
26%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA

No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.

APT 2026-08
610.000 RMB/t
vs hace 12 meses
+103%
desde el máximo
-59%
MesAPT (RMB/t)Horquilla p25–p75Citas
2026-08610.000610.000610.0005
2026-07610.000600.000660.00088
2026-06780.000750.000800.00073
2026-05816.800660.0001.020.00064
2026-041.380.0001.340.0001.430.00077
2026-031.490.0001.330.0001.500.00070
2026-02995.000920.0001.033.30058
2026-01751.071710.000795.00084
2025-12555.000518.000630.00093
2025-11472.000460.000484.00075
2025-10403.000393.000412.00079
2025-09403.400398.000410.00078

Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 9.56–12.42× EV/EBITDA (mediana 10.4×, 1948 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 41.1%, percentil 26% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata fabricated_metal_ppi anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 39% (n=36, p=0.9338): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +365 bps alineados a 20d (hit 68%, n=37), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -38%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 5% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 95% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.564: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 46%, OLS commodity 54%, OLS+coste 54%, signo+coste 50%. Gana OLS commodity: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 31 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2025-10-23, 4 nuevos frente al de 2024-10-24. Concentracion: operacional 12, demanda competencia 11, financiero 8. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$1.05B41.1%$132.1M2026-07-010001003078-26-000080
2026Q1$917.8M41.1%n/d2026-04-010001003078-26-000061
2025Q4$965.7M40.7%$101.3M2026-01-070001003078-26-000012
2025Q3$978.2M40.4%$107.4M2025-10-230001003078-25-000123
2025Q2$971.1M41.0%$105.6M2025-07-010001003078-25-000075
2025Q1$891.7M41.0%n/d2025-04-030001003078-25-000047
2024Q4$928.5M40.7%$94.0M2025-01-080001003078-25-000007
2024Q3$952.3M41.0%$111.5M2024-10-240001003078-24-000107
2024Q2$979.4M40.9%$126.7M2024-07-020001003078-24-000076
2024Q1$935.3M41.5%n/d2024-03-280001003078-24-000050
2023Q4$954.0M41.2%$121.3M2024-01-090001003078-24-000008
2023Q3$1.04B40.5%$137.1M2023-10-250001003078-23-000102
2023Q2$1.05B40.7%$154.3M2023-06-290001003078-23-000072
2023Q1$961.6M41.3%n/d2023-04-040001003078-23-000050
2022Q4$957.7M41.5%$134.6M2023-01-050001003078-23-000008
2022Q3$1.02B41.9%$161.9M2022-10-200001003078-22-000127

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
fabricated_metal_ppi primaria (a priori)39%360.9338
indpro50%360.566

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica fabricated_metal_ppi y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres

R² del commodity
5%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
95%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.56
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)46%24
OLS sobre el commodity mejor54%24
OLS + momentum de coste mejor54%24
Signo + momentum de coste50%24

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
-53 bps
hit 35% · n=37
5d tras filing
+97 bps
hit 57% · n=37
20d tras filing
+365 bps
hit 68% · n=37

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

31 factores del 10-K de 2025-10-23, verbatim del documento. 4 son nuevos frente al de 2024-10-24.

operacional 12demanda competencia 11financiero 8coste insumos 8regulatorio 8laboral 3geopolitico 2precio commodity 1clima agua 1
  • Our business depends heavily on the operating levels of our customers and the economic factors that affect them
  • Changes in our customer and product mix, or adverse changes to the cost of goods we sell, could cause our gross margin percentage to fluctuate or decrease.
  • nuevoVolatility in commodity, energy and labor prices, as well as periods of abnormal inflation, may adversely affect operating margins.
  • We operate in a highly competitive industry, which is evolving and consolidating, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • nuevoAs a supplier to the public sector, we are subject to certain laws and regulations that mandate compliance standards, may result in potential liabilities and may increase our costs of doing business.
  • Our business is exposed to the credit risk of our customers, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • Failure to accurately forecast customer demand and timely purchase inventory could lead to excess inventories or inventory shortages, which could result in decreased operating margins, reduced cash flows and harm to our business.
  • Interruptions in our ability to make deliveries to our customers could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • Supply chain disruptions could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • Our business depends on our ability to attract, train and retain qualified sales and customer service personnel and metalworking and specialty sales specialists
  • The loss of key suppliers or contractors or key brands could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • Changes to trade policies or trade relationships could make sourcing products from overseas more difficult and/or costlier as well as negatively affect the markets we sell into.
  • Opening or expanding our customer fulfillment centers exposes us to risks of delays and may affect our operating results.
  • We establish insurance-related healthcare reserves based on historical claims experience and actuarial estimates, which could lead to adjustments in the future based on actual claims incurred.
  • An interruption of operations at our headquarters or customer fulfillment centers could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • Products that we sell may expose us to potential material liability for property damage, environmental damage, personal injury, or death linked to the use of those products by our customers.
  • Goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangible assets recorded as a result of our acquisitions could become impaired
  • Climate change and societal and governmental responses to climate change could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations, including indirectly through impacts on our customers.
  • The terms of our credit facilities and senior notes impose operating and financial restrictions on us, which may limit our ability to respond to changing business and economic conditions.
  • Our inability to maintain our committed and uncommitted credit facilities or to obtain additional financing could have a material adverse effect on our liquidity, business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • Our principal shareholders own a significant amount of our voting stock and have rights to nominate directors to our Board of Directors, and their interests may differ from those of our other shareholders.
  • The growth of our digital platforms and E-commerce capabilities exposes us to particular risks, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • Maintaining our IT systems and complying with data privacy laws may incur significant, recurring costs.
  • Disruptions or breaches of our IT systems, or violations of data privacy laws, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
  • transactions, including through purchasing platforms.

6 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001003078-25-000123

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)