MATERION Corp
MTRNW: materiales avanzados · targets y aleaciones refractariasactualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 610.000 | 610.000–610.000 | 5 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 600.000–660.000 | 88 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 73 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 64 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.340.000–1.430.000 | 77 |
| 2026-03 | 1.490.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 70 |
| 2026-02 | 995.000 | 920.000–1.033.300 | 58 |
| 2026-01 | 751.071 | 710.000–795.000 | 84 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–630.000 | 93 |
| 2025-11 | 472.000 | 460.000–484.000 | 75 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 79 |
| 2025-09 | 403.400 | 398.000–410.000 | 78 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $549.8M | 14.9% | $46.6M | 2026-04-29 | 0001104657-26-000029 |
| 2025Q4 | $489.8M | 13.0% | $28.4M | 2026-02-12 | 0001104657-26-000011 |
| 2025Q3 | $444.8M | 19.4% | $52.4M | 2025-10-30 | 0001104657-25-000191 |
| 2025Q2 | $431.7M | 19.1% | $54.3M | 2025-07-30 | 0001104657-25-000144 |
| 2025Q1 | $420.3M | 18.1% | $43.7M | 2025-05-01 | 0001104657-25-000059 |
| 2024Q4 | $436.9M | 21.3% | $-21.0M | 2025-02-19 | 0001104657-25-000024 |
| 2024Q3 | $436.7M | 18.5% | $49.9M | 2024-10-30 | 0001104657-24-000146 |
| 2024Q2 | $425.9M | 19.0% | $48.6M | 2024-08-06 | 0001104657-24-000116 |
| 2024Q1 | $385.3M | 18.5% | $38.4M | 2024-05-02 | 0001104657-24-000066 |
| 2023Q4 | $421.0M | 18.9% | $42.8M | 2024-02-15 | 0001104657-24-000019 |
| 2023Q3 | $403.1M | 22.1% | $51.6M | 2023-11-01 | 0001104657-23-000155 |
| 2023Q2 | $398.6M | 22.3% | $51.7M | 2023-08-02 | 0001104657-23-000124 |
| 2023Q1 | $442.5M | 20.6% | $52.0M | 2023-05-03 | 0001104657-23-000065 |
| 2022Q4 | $434.6M | 22.7% | $53.4M | 2023-02-16 | 0001104657-23-000019 |
| 2022Q3 | $428.2M | 19.3% | $42.3M | 2022-11-02 | 0001104657-22-000157 |
| 2022Q3 | $445.3M | 19.6% | $44.8M | 2022-08-03 | 0001104657-22-000126 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q2): margen ▲ sube — semis_ip 3.4% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| semis_ip primaria (a priori) | 50% | 36 | 0.566 |
| indpro | 61% | 36 | 0.1215 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica semis_ip y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 30 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 50% | 16 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 39% | 18 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 33% | 18 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 39% | 18 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
29 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-12, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-19.
- The businesses of many of our customers are subject to significant fluctuations as a result of the cyclical nature of their industries and their sensitivity to general economic conditions, which could adversely affect their demand for our products and reduce our sales and profitability.
- A portion of our revenue is derived from the sale of defense-related products through various contracts and subcontracts. These contracts may be suspended, canceled, or delayed, which could have an adverse impact on our revenues.
- The markets for our products are experiencing rapid changes in technology.
- The availability of competitive substitute materials for beryllium-containing products may reduce our customers’ demand for these products and reduce our sales.
- Our long and variable sales and development cycle makes it difficult for us to predict if and when a new product will be sold to customers.
- The availability and prices of some raw materials we use in our manufacturing operations fluctuate, and increases in raw material costs can adversely affect our operating results and our financial condition.
- Utilizing precious metals in the manufacturing process creates challenges in physical inventory valuations that may impact earnings.
- Because we maintain a significant inventory of precious metals, we may experience losses due to theft or employee error.
- Access to consigned metals may restrict our operations
- We have a limited number of manufacturing facilities, and damage to those facilities, or to critical pieces of equipment in these facilities, could interrupt our operations, increase our costs of doing business, and impair our ability to deliver our products on a timely basis.
- nuevoemployee, supplier, or Company information, or Company systems or infrastructure, may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
- Data privacy compliance and breaches and the evolving global governmental regulations relating to data privacy and cybersecurity could adversely affect our results of operations and profitability.
- Our defined benefit pension plans and other post-employment benefit plans are subject to financial market risks that could adversely impact our financial performance.
- Unexpected events and natural disasters at our mine or manufacturing facilities could increase the cost of operating our business.
- Tax increases and changes in tax laws may adversely affect our financial results
- Our success is dependent upon our relationships with certain key customers.
- Our business may be impacted by external factors that we may not be able to control.
- We conduct our sales and distribution operations on a worldwide basis and are subject to the risks associated with doing business outside the United States.
- Changes in laws or regulations or the manner of their interpretation or enforcement could adversely impact our financial performance and restrict our ability to operate our business or execute our strategies.
- We may be exposed to certain regulatory and financial risks related to climate change.
- We are exposed to lawsuits in the normal course of business, which could harm our business.
- Health issues, litigation, and government regulations relating to our beryllium operations could significantly reduce demand for our products, limit our ability to operate, and adversely affect our profitability.
- Expectations relating to environmental, social and governance considerations expose us to potential liabilities, increased costs and other adverse effects on our business.
- A major portion of our bank debt consists of variable-rate obligations, which subjects us to interest rate fluctuations.
- Adverse business conditions could impact our ability to generate cash and service our indebtedness.
… 4 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001104657-26-000011