MATERION Corp

MTRNW: materiales avanzados · targets y aleaciones refractariasactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$213.73
IV prob-weighted
$118.23
Gap
-45%
TTM EBITDA≈
$181.7M
Net debt
$473.7M
Margen (percentil hist.)
3%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA

No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.

APT 2026-08
610.000 RMB/t
vs hace 12 meses
+103%
desde el máximo
-59%
MesAPT (RMB/t)Horquilla p25–p75Citas
2026-08610.000610.000610.0005
2026-07610.000600.000660.00088
2026-06780.000750.000800.00073
2026-05816.800660.0001.020.00064
2026-041.380.0001.340.0001.430.00077
2026-031.490.0001.330.0001.500.00070
2026-02995.000920.0001.033.30058
2026-01751.071710.000795.00084
2025-12555.000518.000630.00093
2025-11472.000460.000484.00075
2025-10403.000393.000412.00079
2025-09403.400398.000410.00078

Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 12.88–19.18× EV/EBITDA (mediana 16.07×, 1951 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 14.9%, percentil 3% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona de suelo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata semis_ip anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 50% (n=36, p=0.566): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2026Q2 (+3.4% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -103 bps alineados a 20d (hit 47%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -45%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 0% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 100% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.188: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 50%, OLS commodity 39%, OLS+coste 33%, signo+coste 39%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 29 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-12, 1 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-19. Concentracion: operacional 8, regulatorio 6, demanda competencia 5. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$549.8M14.9%$46.6M2026-04-290001104657-26-000029
2025Q4$489.8M13.0%$28.4M2026-02-120001104657-26-000011
2025Q3$444.8M19.4%$52.4M2025-10-300001104657-25-000191
2025Q2$431.7M19.1%$54.3M2025-07-300001104657-25-000144
2025Q1$420.3M18.1%$43.7M2025-05-010001104657-25-000059
2024Q4$436.9M21.3%$-21.0M2025-02-190001104657-25-000024
2024Q3$436.7M18.5%$49.9M2024-10-300001104657-24-000146
2024Q2$425.9M19.0%$48.6M2024-08-060001104657-24-000116
2024Q1$385.3M18.5%$38.4M2024-05-020001104657-24-000066
2023Q4$421.0M18.9%$42.8M2024-02-150001104657-24-000019
2023Q3$403.1M22.1%$51.6M2023-11-010001104657-23-000155
2023Q2$398.6M22.3%$51.7M2023-08-020001104657-23-000124
2023Q1$442.5M20.6%$52.0M2023-05-030001104657-23-000065
2022Q4$434.6M22.7%$53.4M2023-02-160001104657-23-000019
2022Q3$428.2M19.3%$42.3M2022-11-020001104657-22-000157
2022Q3$445.3M19.6%$44.8M2022-08-030001104657-22-000126

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q2): margen ▲ sube semis_ip 3.4% QTD · a 2026-08-04

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
semis_ip primaria (a priori)50%360.566
indpro61%360.1215

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica semis_ip y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 30 trimestres

R² del commodity
0%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
100%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.19
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor50%16
OLS sobre el commodity39%18
OLS + momentum de coste33%18
Signo + momentum de coste39%18

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
-10 bps
hit 47% · n=36
5d tras filing
-11 bps
hit 47% · n=36
20d tras filing
-103 bps
hit 47% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

29 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-12, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-19.

operacional 8regulatorio 6demanda competencia 5coste insumos 5financiero 5laboral 3geopolitico 2precio commodity 1ciberseguridad 1clima agua 1
  • The businesses of many of our customers are subject to significant fluctuations as a result of the cyclical nature of their industries and their sensitivity to general economic conditions, which could adversely affect their demand for our products and reduce our sales and profitability.
  • A portion of our revenue is derived from the sale of defense-related products through various contracts and subcontracts. These contracts may be suspended, canceled, or delayed, which could have an adverse impact on our revenues.
  • The markets for our products are experiencing rapid changes in technology.
  • The availability of competitive substitute materials for beryllium-containing products may reduce our customers’ demand for these products and reduce our sales.
  • Our long and variable sales and development cycle makes it difficult for us to predict if and when a new product will be sold to customers.
  • The availability and prices of some raw materials we use in our manufacturing operations fluctuate, and increases in raw material costs can adversely affect our operating results and our financial condition.
  • Utilizing precious metals in the manufacturing process creates challenges in physical inventory valuations that may impact earnings.
  • Because we maintain a significant inventory of precious metals, we may experience losses due to theft or employee error.
  • Access to consigned metals may restrict our operations
  • We have a limited number of manufacturing facilities, and damage to those facilities, or to critical pieces of equipment in these facilities, could interrupt our operations, increase our costs of doing business, and impair our ability to deliver our products on a timely basis.
  • nuevoemployee, supplier, or Company information, or Company systems or infrastructure, may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
  • Data privacy compliance and breaches and the evolving global governmental regulations relating to data privacy and cybersecurity could adversely affect our results of operations and profitability.
  • Our defined benefit pension plans and other post-employment benefit plans are subject to financial market risks that could adversely impact our financial performance.
  • Unexpected events and natural disasters at our mine or manufacturing facilities could increase the cost of operating our business.
  • Tax increases and changes in tax laws may adversely affect our financial results
  • Our success is dependent upon our relationships with certain key customers.
  • Our business may be impacted by external factors that we may not be able to control.
  • We conduct our sales and distribution operations on a worldwide basis and are subject to the risks associated with doing business outside the United States.
  • Changes in laws or regulations or the manner of their interpretation or enforcement could adversely impact our financial performance and restrict our ability to operate our business or execute our strategies.
  • We may be exposed to certain regulatory and financial risks related to climate change.
  • We are exposed to lawsuits in the normal course of business, which could harm our business.
  • Health issues, litigation, and government regulations relating to our beryllium operations could significantly reduce demand for our products, limit our ability to operate, and adversely affect our profitability.
  • Expectations relating to environmental, social and governance considerations expose us to potential liabilities, increased costs and other adverse effects on our business.
  • A major portion of our bank debt consists of variable-rate obligations, which subjects us to interest rate fluctuations.
  • Adverse business conditions could impact our ability to generate cash and service our indebtedness.

4 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001104657-26-000011

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)