Metallus Inc.
MTUSSpecialty metals · barra calidadactualizado 2026-07-28Precio
$21.11
IV prob-weighted
$11.57
Gap
-45%
TTM EBITDA≈
$63.0M
Net debt
$-104.0M
Margen (percentil hist.)
54%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
11 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 4.18–9.07× EV/EBITDA (mediana 5.95×, 1712 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 8.1%, percentil 54% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata nickel anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 53% (n=36, p=0.434): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: steel_ppi 72% (n=36, p=0.0057). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+4.4% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +82 bps alineados a 20d (hit 53%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -45%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia66/66 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (28 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 1% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 99% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.064: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 58%, OLS commodity 38%, OLS+coste 38%, signo+coste 33%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 25 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-20, 2 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27. Concentracion: operacional 8, financiero 8, coste insumos 6. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $308.3M | 8.1% | $16.6M | 2026-05-05 | 0001193125-26-205648 |
| 2025Q4 | $267.3M | 2.2% | $-1.8M | 2026-02-20 | 0001193125-26-061042 |
| 2025Q3 | $305.9M | 11.4% | $24.8M | 2025-11-06 | 0001193125-25-269669 |
| 2025Q2 | $304.6M | 10.6% | $23.4M | 2025-08-07 | 0000950170-25-105098 |
| 2025Q1 | $280.5M | 7.8% | $11.3M | 2025-05-08 | 0000950170-25-066985 |
| 2024Q4 | $240.5M | 4.5% | $4.2M | 2025-02-27 | 0000950170-25-029085 |
| 2024Q3 | $227.2M | 5.3% | $3.2M | 2024-11-07 | 0000950170-24-123398 |
| 2024Q2 | $294.7M | 8.2% | $16.8M | 2024-08-08 | 0000950170-24-094053 |
| 2024Q1 | $321.6M | 15.7% | $39.9M | 2024-05-09 | 0000950170-24-057033 |
| 2023Q4 | $328.1M | 12.6% | $32.8M | 2024-02-28 | 0000950170-24-022078 |
| 2023Q3 | $354.2M | 14.4% | $44.5M | 2023-11-02 | 0000950170-23-058233 |
| 2023Q2 | $356.6M | 15.1% | $47.6M | 2023-08-03 | 0000950170-23-038070 |
| 2023Q1 | $323.5M | 12.5% | $33.9M | 2023-05-04 | 0000950170-23-017925 |
| 2022Q4 | $245.4M | -8.3% | $-23.1M | 2023-02-24 | 0000950170-23-004348 |
| 2022Q3 | $316.8M | 1.8% | $3.8M | 2022-11-03 | 0000950170-22-021894 |
| 2022Q2 | $415.7M | 19.6% | $74.4M | 2022-08-04 | 0000950170-22-014785 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — nickel 4.4% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| nickel primaria (a priori) | 53% | 36 | 0.434 |
| steel_ppi | 72% | 36 | 0.0057 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “a 18.0% decline in the average surcharge per ton due to lower market prices for scrap and alloys” | rechazado |
| 2022Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “decrease in surcharges of $21.0 million was primarily due to lower market prices for scrap” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “Favorable price/mix of $32.2 million was primarily due to higher base prices across all end-market sectors, as well as an improvement of mix within all end-market sectors.” | rechazado |
| 2020Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2020 decreased $7 million, or 31.0%, compared with the year ended December 31, 2019.” | rechazado |
| 2020Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “The decrease in surcharges was primarily due to an approximate 25% decline in average surcharge per ton due to lower market prices for scrap and alloys.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1834 | “Net Sales / Ton $ 1,834” | rechazado |
| 2021Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 106 | “an increase in volume of approximately 106 thousand ship tons” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 55 | “a reduction in volume of approximately 55 thousand ship tons” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 10900 | “Higher volume of 10.9 thousand ship tons resulted in a net sales increase of $16.1 million across all end-markets except energy.” | rechazado |
| 2021Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 178.2 | “Higher volumes of 178.2 thousand ship tons resulted in a net sales increase of $220.5 million” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2019 decreased $104.0 million” | rechazado |
| 2020Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “lower market prices for scrap and alloys” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 28300 | “The increase in net sales was primarily driven by higher shipments and surcharges as a result of higher scrap and alloy market prices.” | rechazado |
| 2019Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2019 decreased $11.4 million, or 46.3%” | rechazado |
| 2019Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 301 | “a reduction in volume of 301 thousand ship tons” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Gross profit for the three months ended March 31, 2020 decreased $20.6 million, or 72.5%, compared with the three months ended March 31, 2019” | rechazado |
| 2022Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2022 decreased $61.1 million, or 91.6% compared with the three months ended September 30, 2021” | rechazado |
| 2022Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “favorable price/mix of $51.7 million, due to higher base prices across all end-market sectors, as well as an improvement of sales mix within all end-market sectors” | rechazado |
| 2022Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 500 | “The increase in surcharges of $48.3 million was primarily due to higher market prices for scrap and alloys.” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 15.1 | “For the three months ended June 30, 2018, ship tons increased by 15.1 thousand tons, or 5%, compared to the three months ended June 30, 2017, due primarily to higher demand in industrial and energy en” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “Lower market prices for scrap drove the unfavorable surcharges of $25.8 million.” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “a 28.9% decline in the average surcharge per ton due to lower market prices for scrap and alloys” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “a 28.9% decline in the average surcharge per ton due to lower market prices for scrap and alloys” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1422 | “Net Sales / Ton $1,278 $1,434 $1,936 $1,338 $1,422” | rechazado |
| 2025Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 43.2 | “Higher volume of 43.2 thousand ship tons resulted in a net sales increase of $63.9 million.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 49 | “ship tons increased by 49 thousand tons, or 4.3%, compared to the year ended December 31, 2017” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “a decline in the No.1 Busheling scrap index” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 31.4 | “lower volumes of 31.4 thousand ship tons” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “Raw material spread was a headwind due to a decline in the No.1 Busheling scrap index” | rechazado |
| 2025Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1835 | “Net Sales / Ton $ 1,534 $ 1,766 $ 3,779 $ 2,065 $ — $ 1,835” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “The increase in surcharges of $41.0 million was due to higher market prices for scrap and alloys.” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 139 | “a reduction in volume of approximately 139 thousand ship tons, resulting in a decrease of $148.4 million of net sales” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 58 | “Higher volumes of approximately 58 thousand ship tons resulted in an increase of $70.6 million” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 3000 | “Higher volumes of three thousand ship tons resulted in a net sales increase of $5.2 million, primarily due to increased customer demand in the industrial and energy end-market sectors.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2023 increased $45.4 million, or 810.7% compared with the three months ended September 30, 2022.” | rechazado |
| 2022Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Gross profit for the three months ended March 31, 2022 increased $29.3 million, or 95.4% compared with the three months ended March 31, 2021.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 55.9 | “Lower volumes of 55.9 thousand ship tons resulted in a net sales decrease of $83.3 million.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2020 increased $0.2 million, or 7.7%” | rechazado |
| 2024Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Gross profit for the three months ended March 31, 2024 increased $10.2 million, or 25.2%, compared with the three months ended March 31, 2023.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “Favorable price/mix of $28.1 million was due to higher base prices across all end-market sectors.” | rechazado |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica nickel y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
R² del commodity
1%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
99%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.06
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 58% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 38% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 38% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 33% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
-62 bps
hit 56% · n=36
5d tras filing
-91 bps
hit 56% · n=36
20d tras filing
+82 bps
hit 53% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
25 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-20, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27.
operacional 8financiero 8coste insumos 6precio commodity 5regulatorio 3demanda competencia 2geopolitico 2ciberseguridad 1laboral 1
- Competition in the steel industry, together with potential global overcapacity, could result in significant pricing pressure for our products.
- nuevoChanges in trade policy and tariff regimes (including Section 232 steel/aluminum tariffs and emergency tariff actions) may increase our costs, affect customer demand, disrupt supply chains, or alter competitive dynamics.
- Any change in the operation of our raw material surcharge mechanisms, a raw material market index or the availability or cost of raw materials could materially affect our revenues, earnings, and cash flows.
- The cost and availability of electricity and natural gas are also subject to volatile market conditions.
- Unexpected equipment failures or other disruptions of our operations may increase our costs and reduce our sales and earnings due to production curtailments or shutdowns.
- Our operating results depend in part on continued successful research, development and marketing of products and services.
- Product liability, warranty and product quality claims could adversely affect our operating results.
- Work stoppages or similar difficulties could significantly disrupt our operations, reduce our revenues and materially affect our earnings.
- A significant portion of our manufacturing facilities are located in Stark County, Ohio, which increases the risk of a significant disruption to our business as a result of unforeseeable developments in this geographic area.
- We have significant pension and retiree health care costs, as well as future cash contribution requirements, which may negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows.
- We may incur restructuring and impairment charges that could materially affect our profitability.
- We may not be able to execute successfully on our strategic imperatives or achieve the intended results.
- nuevoDisparate expectations relating to sustainability matters and reporting could expose us to increased costs, reputational harm and other negative impacts on our business.
- We may not be able to complete or successfully integrate future acquisitions into our business, which could adversely affect our business and results of operations
- Deterioration in our asset borrowing base could adversely affect our financial health and restrict our ability to borrow necessary cash to support the needs of our business and fulfill our pension obligations.
- Restrictive covenants in the agreements governing our indebtedness may restrict our ability to operate our business, which may affect the market price of our common shares.
- Our capital resources may not be adequate to provide for all of our cash requirements, and we are exposed to risks associated with financial, credit, capital and banking markets.
- The price of our common shares may fluctuate significantly.
- We may issue preferred shares with terms that could dilute the voting power or reduce the value of our common shares.
- Provisions in our corporate documents and Ohio law could have the effect of delaying, deferring or preventing a change in control of us, even if that change may be considered beneficial by some of our shareholders, which could reduce the market price of our common shares.
- We may be subject to risks relating to our information technology systems and cybersecurity.
- If we are unable to attract and retain key personnel, our business could be materially adversely affected.
- We are subject to a wide variety of domestic and foreign laws and regulations that could adversely affect our results of operations, cash flow or financial condition.
- Pandemics, epidemics, widespread illness or other health issues could adversely affect the Company's operations and financial results, including cash flows and liquidity.
- If our internal controls are found to be ineffective, our financial results or our stock price may be adversely affected.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001193125-26-061042
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)