NOV Inc.
NOVW: perforacion · brocas e insertos de carburoactualizado 2026-08-03Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA
No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.
| Mes | APT (RMB/t) | Horquilla p25–p75 | Citas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 610.000 | 610.000–610.000 | 5 |
| 2026-07 | 610.000 | 600.000–660.000 | 88 |
| 2026-06 | 780.000 | 750.000–800.000 | 73 |
| 2026-05 | 816.800 | 660.000–1.020.000 | 64 |
| 2026-04 | 1.380.000 | 1.340.000–1.430.000 | 77 |
| 2026-03 | 1.490.000 | 1.330.000–1.500.000 | 70 |
| 2026-02 | 995.000 | 920.000–1.033.300 | 58 |
| 2026-01 | 751.071 | 710.000–795.000 | 84 |
| 2025-12 | 555.000 | 518.000–630.000 | 93 |
| 2025-11 | 472.000 | 460.000–484.000 | 75 |
| 2025-10 | 403.000 | 393.000–412.000 | 79 |
| 2025-09 | 403.400 | 398.000–410.000 | 78 |
Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $2.05B | 18.5% | $139.0M | 2026-04-28 | 0001193125-26-185866 |
| 2025Q4 | $2.28B | 20.3% | $182.0M | 2026-02-12 | 0001193125-26-048350 |
| 2025Q3 | $2.18B | 18.9% | $196.0M | 2025-10-28 | 0001193125-25-253755 |
| 2025Q2 | $2.19B | 20.4% | $230.0M | 2025-07-29 | 0000950170-25-099476 |
| 2025Q1 | $2.10B | 21.3% | $241.0M | 2025-04-29 | 0000950170-25-059817 |
| 2024Q4 | $2.31B | 21.4% | $295.0M | 2025-02-14 | 0000950170-25-021042 |
| 2024Q3 | $2.19B | 21.4% | $280.0M | 2024-10-25 | 0000950170-24-117316 |
| 2024Q2 | $2.22B | 26.6% | $399.0M | 2024-07-29 | 0000950170-24-087179 |
| 2024Q1 | $2.15B | 21.3% | $245.0M | 2024-04-26 | 0000950170-24-048859 |
| 2023Q4 | $2.34B | 21.2% | $238.0M | 2024-02-14 | 0000950170-24-015145 |
| 2023Q3 | $2.19B | 21.4% | $260.0M | 2023-10-27 | 0000950170-23-055867 |
| 2023Q2 | $2.09B | 21.8% | $252.0M | 2023-07-27 | 0000950170-23-035210 |
| 2023Q1 | $1.96B | 20.9% | $203.0M | 2023-04-27 | 0000950170-23-015150 |
| 2022Q4 | $2.07B | 21.4% | $238.0M | 2023-02-14 | 0000950170-23-002767 |
| 2022Q3 | $1.89B | 19.5% | $131.0M | 2022-10-28 | 0000950170-22-020421 |
| 2022Q2 | $1.73B | 17.9% | $143.0M | 2022-07-28 | 0000950170-22-013349 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — wti 33.0% QTD · a 2026-08-04
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| wti primaria (a priori) | 53% | 36 | 0.434 |
| indpro | 50% | 36 | 0.566 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica wti y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 50% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity mejor | 50% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 42% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 46% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
33 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-12, verbatim del documento. 4 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-14.
- Business Strategy and Competitive Strengths
- Economies of scale in procurement and manufacturing
- Scope and scale for distribution and marketing.
- Reputation, experience, and benefits of fleet standardization.
- nuevoLeverage NOV’s market position to accelerate the digitalization of the energy industry
- Develop proprietary technologies and solutions that assist energy producers in reducing their marginal cost of supply
- Capitalize on and drive end-market fragmentation
- nuevoLeverage core capabilities and competencies to advance adjacent energy and infrastructure markets with high growth potential
- Employ a capital-light business model with the ability to quickly scale operations
- Employ a conservative capital structure with ample liquidity to capitalize on volatility associated with the oil and gas industry
- Solids Control and Waste Management Services.
- Influence of Oil and Gas Activity Levels on the Company’s Business
- Seasonal Nature of the Company’s Business
- Research and New Product Development and Intellectual Property
- Machinists, metal fabricators, welders, assemblers, pipe fitters, riggers, electronics technicians, system integrators, composite material fabricators, paint and industrial coatings specialists, and other skilled trade professionals
- Field service engineers, mechanics, and technicians
- Support function professionals, including: Information Technology, Human Resources, Legal, Compliance, Clerical, and Accounting and Finance
- nuevoCode of Conduct and Business Ethics and Harassment in the Workplace.
- We are dependent upon the level of activity in the oil and gas industry, which is volatile and has caused, and may cause future, fluctuations in our operating results.
- There are risks associated with certain contracts for our equipment.
- Competition in our industry, including the introduction of new products and technologies by our competitors, as well as the expiration of the intellectual property rights protecting our products and technologies, could ultimately lead to lower revenue and earnings.
- A significant portion of our revenue is derived from our non-United States operations, which exposes us to risks inherent in doing business in each of the many countries in which we operate.
- Supply chain disruption and price escalation could have a material adverse effect on our business, liquidity, consolidated results of operations and consolidated financial condition.
- Cybersecurity risks and threats could adversely affect our business.
- Our ability to hire and retain qualified personnel at competitive cost could materially affect our operations and growth potential.
… 8 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001193125-26-048350