NUCOR CORP
NUEAcero EAF · mini-millactualizado 2026-07-28Precio
$265.62
IV prob-weighted
$104.14
Gap
-61%
TTM EBITDA≈
$4.14B
Net debt
$4.76B
Margen (percentil hist.)
54%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
12 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 4.72–9.49× EV/EBITDA (mediana 6.52×, 1752 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 15.8%, percentil 54% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata metal_spread anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 56% (n=36, p=0.3089): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: steel_ppi 86% (n=36, p=0.0). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2026Q2 (+9.4% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
realizedPrecio realizado (avg_selling_price_usd_ton) vs spot: corr niveles 0.903, Δ 0.411, captura β 1.177 (n=24): el spot llega al P&L de forma parcial y con ruido trimestral — mismo cuello de botella que ALTO. [realized_model.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -206 bps alineados a 20d (hit 39%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -61%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia74/76 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (24 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 0% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 100% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo 0.435: persiste). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 80%, OLS commodity 56%, OLS+coste 78%, signo+coste 67%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 16 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-25, 0 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27. Concentracion: operacional 10, financiero 4, demanda competencia 3. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $9.50B | 15.8% | $1.44B | 2026-05-13 | 0001193125-26-220778 |
| 2025Q4 | $7.69B | 11.2% | $844.0M | 2026-02-25 | 0001193125-26-071575 |
| 2025Q4 | $8.52B | 13.9% | $1.19B | 2025-11-12 | 0001193125-25-276207 |
| 2025Q3 | $8.46B | 14.5% | $1.22B | 2025-08-13 | 0000950170-25-107646 |
| 2025Q2 | $7.83B | 7.7% | $627.0M | 2025-05-14 | 0000950170-25-071567 |
| 2024Q4 | $7.08B | 8.9% | $672.0M | 2025-02-27 | 0000950170-25-028427 |
| 2024Q3 | $7.44B | 10.2% | $795.0M | 2024-11-06 | 0000950170-24-121863 |
| 2024Q2 | $8.08B | 14.8% | $1.17B | 2024-08-07 | 0000950170-24-092479 |
| 2024Q1 | $8.14B | 18.7% | $1.44B | 2024-05-08 | 0000950170-24-055144 |
| 2023Q4 | $7.70B | 18.1% | $1.29B | 2024-02-27 | 0000950170-24-021195 |
| 2023Q3 | $8.78B | 21.9% | $1.77B | 2023-11-08 | 0000950170-23-060729 |
| 2023Q3 | $9.52B | 26.3% | $2.28B | 2023-08-09 | 0000950170-23-040234 |
| 2023Q2 | $8.71B | 22.9% | $1.83B | 2023-05-10 | 0000950170-23-020173 |
| 2022Q4 | $8.72B | 24.0% | $1.89B | 2023-03-01 | 0001564590-23-002793 |
| 2022Q4 | $10.50B | 27.1% | $2.57B | 2022-11-09 | 0001564590-22-037206 |
| 2022Q3 | $11.79B | 34.8% | $3.74B | 2022-08-10 | 0001564590-22-028899 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q2): margen ▲ sube — metal_spread 9.4% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| metal_spread primaria (a priori) | 56% | 36 | 0.3089 |
| steel_ppi | 86% | 36 | 0 |
| scrap_ppi | 64% | 36 | 0.0662 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 1114 | “Metal margin is the difference between the selling price of steel and the cost of scrap and scrap substitutes.” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 819 | “a 19% increase in average sales price per ton from $688 to $819” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 672 | “a 15% decrease in the average sales price per ton from $788 to $672” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 7482 | “Total tons shipped to outside customers in the second quarter of 2021 were 7,482,000 tons, a 37% increase from the second quarter of 2020.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1279 | “Average sales price per ton increased 12% from $1,146 in the first quarter of 2025 to $1,279 in the first quarter of 2026.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 783 | “Average sales price per ton decreased 13% from $901 in the first quarter of 2019 to $783 in the first quarter of 2020.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1284 | “Average sales price per ton decreased 11% from $1,446 in the second quarter of 2023 to $1,284 in the second quarter of 2024.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1690 | “Average sales price per ton increased 44% from $1,175 in the second quarter of 2021 to $1,690 in the second quarter of 2022.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 18 | “Gross margins of $1.17 billion (18%) in the second quarter of 2018” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 6767 | “Total tons shipped to outside customers in the first quarter of 2019 were 6,767,000 tons” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 373 | “an increase of 19% in the average scrap and scrap substitute cost per ton used from $313 in the second quarter of 2017 to $373 in the second quarter of 2018” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 394 | “The average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used in the first quarter of 2025 was $394, a 6% decrease compared to $421 in the first quarter of 2024.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 788 | “a 4% decrease in the average sales price per ton from $819 to $788” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 405 | “The average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used in the first quarter of 2021 was $405, a 38% increase compared to $293 in the first quarter of 2020.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 374 | “an increase of 18% in the average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used from $317 in the third quarter of 2017 to $374 in the third quarter of 2018” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 7172 | “Total tons shipped to outside customers in the third quarter of 2021 were 7,172,000 tons, a 13% increase from the third quarter of 2020.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 18709 | “Total tons shipped to outside customers in the first nine months of 2024 were approximately 18,709,000 tons” | rechazado |
| 2018Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 876 | “a 28% increase in average sales price per ton from $685 to $876” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 6367 | “tons shipped to outside customers in the third quarter of 2020 were 6,367,000 tons” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Metal margins for the steel mills segment in the first quarter of 2019 decreased from the fourth quarter of 2018 due to the 4% decrease in average sales price per ton from $860 to $826” | rechazado |
| 2023Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The decrease in gross margin in the second quarter of 2023 as compared to the second quarter of 2022 was due primarily to lower metal margins across the steel mills segment.” | rechazado |
| 2019Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 9454 | “Outside steel shipments 9,454 10,094 -6%” | rechazado |
| 2020Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 7187 | “Total tons shipped to outside customers in the first quarter of 2020 were 7,187,000 tons, a 6% increase from the first quarter of 2019.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 396 | “The average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used in the second quarter of 2024 was $396, a 13% decrease compared to $455 in the second quarter of 2023.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 511 | “The average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used in the third quarter of 2021 was $511, an 84% increase compared to $277 in the third quarter of 2020.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1146 | “Average sales price per ton decreased 12% from $1,307 in the first quarter of 2024 to $1,146 in the first quarter of 2025.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1499 | “a 9% increase in the average sales price per ton from $1,372 to $1,499 which was partially offset by a 4% decrease in tons sold to outside customers.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1175 | “Average sales price per ton increased 49% from $790 in the second quarter of 2020 to $1,175 in the second quarter of 2021.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 675 | “increased margins in the steel mills segment caused by higher metal margins.” | rechazado |
| 2021Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 650 | “The primary driver for the increase in gross margins in the second quarter of 2021 as compared to the second quarter of 2020 was increased metal margins in the steel mills segment.” | rechazado |
| 2019Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 330 | “the average scrap and scrap substitutes cost per gross ton used in the second quarter of 2019 was $330” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1438 | “Average sales price per ton increased 86% from $774 in the third quarter of 2020 to $1,438 in the third quarter of 2021.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Metal margin in the steel mills segment decreased due to lower average selling prices.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 403 | “The average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used in the first quarter of 2026 was $403, a 2% increase compared to $394 in the first quarter of 2025.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “The primary driver of the decrease in gross margins in the first quarter of 2025 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 was decreased margins in the steel mills segment caused by lower metal margins” | rechazado |
| 2019Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 0 | “Metal margins per ton for the steel mills segment increased as the decrease in average scrap and scrap substitutes cost per ton outpaced the previously mentioned decrease in average selling price per ” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 403 | “The average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used in the second quarter of 2025 was $403, a 2% increase compared to $396 in the second quarter of 2024.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1105 | “due primarily to a 20% decrease in the average sales price per ton, from $1,388 to $1,105.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1352 | “Average sales price per ton decreased 18% from $1,641 in the first quarter of 2022 to $1,352 in the first quarter of 2023.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 421 | “The average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used in the first quarter of 2024 was $421, a 2% increase compared to $414 in the first quarter of 2023.” | auditado ✓ |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica metal_spread y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 21 trimestres
R² del commodity
0%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
100%
AR(1) del residuo
0.43
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 80% | 5 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 56% | 9 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 78% | 9 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 67% | 9 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_selling_price_usd_ton (MD&A verificado) vs steel_ppi — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Corr. niveles
0.90
Corr. Δ trimestral
0.41
β captura Δ%spot→Δ%real
1.18
n pares
24
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
+41 bps
hit 61% · n=36
5d tras filing
-59 bps
hit 36% · n=36
20d tras filing
-206 bps
hit 39% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
16 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-25, verbatim del documento. 0 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27.
operacional 10financiero 4demanda competencia 3coste insumos 3regulatorio 3precio commodity 1ciberseguridad 1
- Overcapacity in the global steel industry could increase the level of steel imports into the United States, which may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Our industry is cyclical and both recessions and prolonged periods of slow economic growth may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Competition from other steel producers, imports or alternative materials may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Our business requires substantial capital investment and maintenance expenditures, and our capital resources may not be adequate to provide for all of our cash requirements.
- Changes in the availability and cost of electricity and natural gas are subject to volatile market conditions which may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Our business and results of operations may be negatively affected by volatility in steel prices and the cost and availability of raw materials, particularly scrap steel
- Environmental regulation compliance and remediation could result in substantially increased costs and materially adversely impact our competitive position.
- Emerging customer preferences for greater product transparency and less GHG intensive materials may put us at a competitive disadvantage as a carbon steel producer.
- We are subject to information technology and cybersecurity threats which could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
- Our operations are subject to business interruptions and casualty losses.
- We acquire businesses and enter into joint ventures from time to time and we may encounter difficulties in integrating businesses we acquire.
- Risks associated with operating in international markets may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Pandemics, epidemics and other public health emergencies in the future, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- The accounting treatment of equity method investments, goodwill and other long-lived assets could result in future asset impairments, which would reduce our earnings.
- Tax increases and changes in tax laws and regulations or exposure to additional tax liabilities may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial conditions and cash flows.
- We are subject to legal proceedings and legal compliance risks
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001193125-26-071575
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)