PILGRIMS PRIDE CORP
PPCProteina animal · polloactualizado 2026-08-03Precio
$27.92
IV prob-weighted
$44.32
Gap
59%
TTM EBITDA≈
$1.41B
Net debt
$2.47B
Margen (percentil hist.)
26%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 5.96–11.72× EV/EBITDA (mediana 8.35×, 1946 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 7.3%, percentil 26% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata protein_vs_feed anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 65% (n=37, p=0.0494): señal operativa utilizable. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: poultry_ppi 68% (n=37, p=0.0235). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +260 bps alineados a 20d (hit 61%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual +59%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 24% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 76% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo 0.009: persiste). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 61%, OLS commodity 61%, OLS+coste 61%, signo+coste 56%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 23 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-12, 3 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-13. Concentracion: operacional 8, regulatorio 7, coste insumos 5. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $4.63B | 7.3% | $189.3M | 2026-07-30 | 0000802481-26-000051 |
| 2026Q1 | $4.53B | 7.6% | $281.0M | 2026-04-30 | 0000802481-26-000030 |
| 2025Q4 | $4.52B | 9.5% | $325.8M | 2026-02-12 | 0000802481-26-000011 |
| 2025Q3 | $4.76B | 13.9% | $609.0M | 2025-10-30 | 0000802481-25-000143 |
| 2025Q2 | $4.76B | 15.0% | $625.8M | 2025-07-31 | 0000802481-25-000110 |
| 2025Q1 | $4.46B | 12.4% | $509.0M | 2025-05-01 | 0000802481-25-000062 |
| 2024Q4 | $4.37B | 12.7% | $418.5M | 2025-02-13 | 0000802481-25-000011 |
| 2024Q3 | $4.58B | 14.9% | $618.8M | 2024-10-31 | 0000802481-24-000094 |
| 2024Q2 | $4.56B | 15.2% | $548.7M | 2024-08-01 | 0000802481-24-000066 |
| 2024Q1 | $4.36B | 8.8% | $353.6M | 2024-05-02 | 0000802481-24-000036 |
| 2023Q4 | $4.53B | 7.1% | $296.8M | 2024-02-27 | 0000802481-24-000015 |
| 2023Q3 | $4.36B | 7.9% | $302.6M | 2023-10-26 | 0000802481-23-000081 |
| 2023Q2 | $4.31B | 6.5% | $196.7M | 2023-07-27 | 0000802481-23-000074 |
| 2023Q1 | $4.17B | 4.2% | $129.6M | 2023-04-27 | 0000802481-23-000040 |
| 2022Q4 | $4.13B | 2.3% | $24.6M | 2023-02-09 | 0000802481-23-000013 |
| 2022Q3 | $4.47B | 11.1% | $430.0M | 2022-10-27 | 0000802481-22-000104 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| protein_vs_feed primaria (a priori) | 65% | 37 | 0.0494 |
| poultry_ppi | 68% | 37 | 0.0235 |
| corn | 60% | 37 | 0.162 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica protein_vs_feed y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 35 trimestres
R² del commodity
24%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
77%
AR(1) del residuo
0.01
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 61% | 23 |
| OLS sobre el commodity mejor | 61% | 23 |
| OLS + momentum de coste mejor | 61% | 23 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 56% | 23 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
-23 bps
hit 46% · n=37
5d tras filing
+101 bps
hit 53% · n=36
20d tras filing
+261 bps
hit 61% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
23 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-12, verbatim del documento. 3 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-13.
operacional 8regulatorio 7coste insumos 5demanda competencia 4geopolitico 3clima agua 2laboral 2financiero 2precio commodity 1
- Industry cyclicality can affect our earnings, especially due to fluctuations in commodity prices of feed ingredients, chicken and pork.
- Outbreaks of livestock diseases in general, and poultry and pig diseases in particular, including avian influenza and African swine fever, can significantly and adversely affect our ability to conduct our operations and the demand for our products.
- Our foreign operations and commerce in international markets pose special risks to our business and operations and subject us to additional regulatory frameworks and compliance costs.
- Competition in the chicken and pork industries with other vertically integrated chicken or pork companies may make us unable to compete successfully in this industry, which could adversely affect our business.
- nuevoMedia campaigns related to food production, regulatory and customer focus on sustainability, and recent increased focus and attention by the U.S. government on market dynamics and other facets of the meat processing industry could expose us to additional costs or risks.
- Our operations are subject to general risks of litigation.
- We may not be able to successfully integrate the operations of companies we acquire or benefit from growth opportunities.
- The consolidation of customers and/or the loss of one or more of our largest customers could adversely affect our business.
- We depend on contract growers and independent producers to supply us with livestock.
- Changes in consumer preference could negatively impact our business.
- Climate change and related regulations may have a long-term adverse impact on our business and results of operations.
- Regulations, present and future, are constant factors affecting our business.
- Our performance depends on favorable labor relations with our employees and our compliance with labor laws. Any deterioration of those relations or increase in labor costs due to our compliance with labor laws could adversely affect our business.
- nuevoLoss of skilled employees, labor shortages, or a material increase in employee turnover could have a significant negative impact on our business and adverse effects on our profitability.
- If we are unable to attract, hire or retain key team members, it could have a negative impact on our business, financial condition or results of operations.
- JBS USA beneficially owns a majority of our common stock and has the ability to control the vote on most matters brought before the holders of our common stock.
- We are subject to reputational risk in connection with U.S. and Brazilian civil and criminal actions and investigations involving our ultimate controlling shareholders, and these actions may materially adversely impact our business and prospects and damage our reputation and image.
- Our future financial and operating flexibility may be adversely affected by significant leverage.
- Impairment in the carrying value of goodwill or other identifiable intangible assets could negatively affect our operating results.
- Weak or unstable national or global economic conditions, including inflation, could negatively impact our business.
- Our business may be negatively impacted by economic or other consequences from Russia’s war against Ukraine and the sanctions imposed as a response to that action.
- Extreme weather, natural disasters or other events beyond our control as well as interruption by man-made problems such as power disruptions could negatively impact our business.
- nuevoOur use of artificial intelligence and machine learning may result in legal and regulatory risks.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000802481-26-000011
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)