Radius Recycling, Inc. (ex Schnitzer Steel)

RDUSChatarra · reciclador
Valoración diaria: sin datos
El twin genérico no pudo calcular la serie (columnas EBITDA/deuda/acciones incompletas en XBRL — ver twin_manifest.json).
se necesita: diagnóstico de tags específicos del filer (misma clase de trabajo que NUE: subtotales ausentes)
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

6 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

cicloMargen bruto actual 6.8%, percentil 18% de su historia (34 trimestres): zona de suelo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata scrap_ppi anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 67% (n=33, p=0.0401): señal operativa utilizable. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen a la baja vs 2025Q2 (-2.3% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 3% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 97% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.517: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 67%, OLS commodity 62%, OLS+coste 76%, signo+coste 76%. Gana OLS+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 36 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2024-10-24, 1 nuevos frente al de 2023-10-25. Concentracion: financiero 15, regulatorio 10, operacional 9. [risk_factors.json]

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 34)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2025Q2$727.0M6.8%$16.5M2025-07-010000950170-25-092082
2025Q1$642.5M4.3%n/d2025-04-040000950170-25-050995
2024Q4$656.5M5.1%$-878000.002025-01-080000950170-25-003338
2024Q3$770.8M6.8%$15.8M2024-10-240000950170-24-117007
2024Q2$673.9M6.8%$-211.1M2024-07-020000950170-24-080182
2024Q1$621.1M6.5%n/d2024-04-040000950170-24-041698
2023Q4$672.9M5.9%$484000.002024-01-040000950170-24-001857
2023Q3$717.9M12.5%$-300000.002023-10-250000950170-23-055162
2023Q2$809.6M11.8%$50.1M2023-06-270000950170-23-030062
2023Q1$756.0M9.7%n/d2023-04-070000950170-23-012168
2022Q4$598.7M8.1%$5.1M2023-01-050000950170-23-000211
2022Q3$894.4M9.5%$36.6M2022-10-240000950170-22-019904
2022Q2$1.01B17.4%$116.6M2022-06-290000950170-22-012320
2022Q1$783.2M14.4%n/d2022-04-060001564590-22-013682
2021Q4$798.1M14.4%$77.0M2022-01-060001564590-22-000528
2021Q3$2.76B73.9%$66.0M2022-10-240000950170-22-019904

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2025Q2): margen ▼ baja — scrap_ppi -2.3% QTD · a 2026-07-29

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
scrap_ppi primaria (a priori)67%330.0401

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica scrap_ppi y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 33 trimestres

R² del commodity
3%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
97%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.52
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)67%21
OLS sobre el commodity62%21
OLS + momentum de coste mejor76%21
Signo + momentum de coste mejor76%21

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

36 factores del 10-K de 2024-10-24, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2023-10-25.

financiero 15regulatorio 10operacional 9coste insumos 7demanda competencia 5geopolitico 3ciberseguridad 2precio commodity 2clima agua 2laboral 2
  • Risk Factors Relating to the Regulatory Environment
  • Potential costs related to the environmental cleanup of Portland Harbor may be material to our financial position and liquidity
  • Equipment upgrades, equipment failures, and facility damage may lead to production curtailments or shutdowns
  • Failure to realize or delays in realizing expected benefits from capital projects, including investments in processing and manufacturing technology improvements and information technology systems, may impact our financial condition, operating results, and cash flows
  • We operate in industries that are cyclical and sensitive to general economic conditions, which could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition, and cash flows
  • Changing conditions in global markets including the impact of sanctions and tariffs, quotas, and other trade actions and import restrictions may adversely affect our operating results, financial condition, and cash flows
  • Increases in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies may reduce the demand for our products
  • Changes in the availability or price of inputs such as raw materials and end-of-life vehicles could reduce our sales and adversely impact our margins
  • Significant decreases in recycled metal prices may adversely impact our operating results
  • Imbalances in supply and demand conditions in the global steel industry may reduce demand for our products
  • Acquisitions and integration of acquired businesses may result in operating difficulties and other unintended consequences
  • Supply chain disruptions affecting our customers, end users of our recycled products, or our suppliers could adversely impact the demand for our products or the availability of inputs, increase our costs, or otherwise adversely impact our business
  • Reliance on third-party shipping companies may restrict our ability to ship our products
  • The agreement governing our bank credit facilities imposes certain restrictions on our business and contains financial covenants
  • Potential limitations on our ability to access capital resources may restrict our ability to operate
  • nuevoImpairment of goodwill, long-lived and other assets may adversely affect our operating results
  • Public health emergencies, such as pandemics or epidemics, could have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows
  • Inability to achieve or sustain the benefits from productivity, cost savings, and restructuring initiatives may adversely impact our operating results
  • We may be unable to renew facility leases, thus restricting our ability to operate
  • Changing economic conditions may result in customers not fulfilling their contractual obligations
  • Consolidation in the steel industry may reduce demand for our products
  • Product liability claims may adversely impact our operating results
  • We are subject to legal proceedings and legal compliance risks that may adversely impact our financial condition, results of operations, and liquidity
  • Climate change may adversely impact our facilities and our ongoing operations
  • We may not realize our deferred tax assets in the future

… 11 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000950170-24-117007

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)