RELIANCE, INC.
RSDistribución · service centersactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $4.03B | n/d | $437.1M | 2026-04-29 | 0001104659-26-051524 |
| 2025Q4 | $3.50B | n/d | $235.6M | 2026-02-26 | 0001104659-26-020651 |
| 2025Q3 | $3.65B | n/d | $330.3M | 2025-10-28 | 0001104659-25-103175 |
| 2025Q2 | $3.66B | n/d | $381.9M | 2025-07-30 | 0001558370-25-009796 |
| 2025Q1 | $3.48B | n/d | $343.1M | 2025-05-01 | 0001558370-25-006104 |
| 2024Q4 | $3.13B | n/d | $212.4M | 2025-02-27 | 0001558370-25-001806 |
| 2024Q3 | $3.42B | n/d | $341.3M | 2024-10-31 | 0001558370-24-013990 |
| 2024Q2 | $3.64B | n/d | $418.3M | 2024-08-01 | 0001558370-24-010541 |
| 2024Q1 | $3.64B | n/d | $456.7M | 2024-05-02 | 0001558370-24-006509 |
| 2023Q4 | $3.34B | n/d | $388.0M | 2024-02-29 | 0001558370-24-002166 |
| 2023Q3 | $3.62B | n/d | $450.1M | 2023-11-02 | 0001558370-23-017398 |
| 2023Q2 | $3.88B | n/d | $572.1M | 2023-08-03 | 0001558370-23-013124 |
| 2023Q1 | $3.97B | n/d | $574.7M | 2023-05-04 | 0001558370-23-008056 |
| 2022Q4 | $3.61B | n/d | $516.2M | 2023-02-28 | 0001558370-23-002368 |
| 2022Q3 | $4.25B | n/d | $608.9M | 2022-11-03 | 0001558370-22-016206 |
| 2022Q2 | $4.68B | n/d | $846.8M | 2022-08-04 | 0001558370-22-012274 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — steel_ppi 8.2% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| steel_ppi primaria (a priori) | 64% | 36 | 0.0662 |
| metal_spread | 42% | 36 | 0.8785 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 3243.9 | “Tons sold (six months ended) 3,243.9” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1972 | “Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,972” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2442 | “Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,442 $ 2,623 $ (181) (6.9) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 3073 | “Average selling price per ton sold $ 3,073 $ 2,594 $ 479 18.5 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 6388.1 | “Tons sold 6,388.1 6,013.2 374.9 6.2 %” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 2020.9 | “Gross profit $ 4,107.5 28.7 % $ 4,106.6 29.7 % $ 0.9 — %” | rechazado |
| 2022Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 3213 | “Average selling price per ton sold (six months ended) $ 3,213” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2020 | “Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,020 $ 1,742 $ 278 16.0 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1742 | “Average selling price per ton sold $ 1,742 $ 1,958 $ (216) (11.0) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2602 | “Average selling price per ton sold (nine months ended) $ 2,602 $ 3,156 $ (554) (17.6) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2017Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 197.5 | “Our gross profit increased in 2017 compared to 2016 due to higher tons sold and higher metals prices.” | rechazado |
| 2026Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2602 | “Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 2,602” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1904 | “Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,904 $ 1,890 $ 14 0.7 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 3156 | “Average selling price per ton sold (nine months ended) $ 3,156” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1681 | “Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,681 $ 1,904 $ (223) (11.7) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 1628.9 | “Tons sold 1,628.9 1,494.0 134.9 9.0 %” | rechazado |
| 2022Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 2873.6 | “Tons sold (six months ended) 2,873.6” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q3 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “Our tons sold and average selling price per ton sold exclude our tons toll processed.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2570 | “Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,570 $ 3,073 $ (503) (16.4) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 1358.2 | “Tons sold (three months ended) 1,358.2 1,283.5 74.7 5.8 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 1211.1 | “Gross profit (three months ended) $ 1,211.1 31.5 % $ 676.1 32.4 % $ 535.0 79.1 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2623 | “Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,623 $ 3,186 $ (563) $ (17.7) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | -19 | “reflecting a 19.0% decrease in average selling price per ton sold.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 1790.1 | “Tons sold (three months ended) 1,790.1” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 1494 | “Tons sold 1,494.0 1,520.1 (26.1) (1.7) %” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2303 | “Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,303 $ 2,570 $ (267) (10.4) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1609 | “Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,609 $ 1,807 $ (198) (11.0) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2394 | “Average selling price per ton sold (six months ended) $ 2,394 $ 2,625 $ (231) (8.8) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1807 | “Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,807 $ 1,972 $ (165) (8.4) %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 4279.6 | “Tons sold (nine months ended) 4,279.6” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 5570.8 | “Tons sold 5,570.8 5,472.9 97.9 1.8 %” | rechazado |
| 2018Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1890 | “Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,890” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “The increase in cost of sales in 2018 compared to 2017 is mainly due to a higher average cost per ton sold.” | rechazado |
| 2017Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 1599 | “Average selling price per ton sold $ 1,599 $ 1,465 $ 134 9.1 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 6013.2 | “Tons sold 6,013.2 5,779.2 234.0 4.0 %” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 5779.2 | “Tons sold 5,779.2 5,570.8 208.4 3.7 %” | rechazado |
| 2026Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 1672.7 | “Tons sold 1,672.7 1,628.9 43.8 2.7 %” | rechazado |
| 2023Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 4425 | “Tons sold (nine months ended) 4,425.0 4,279.6 145.4 3.4 %” | rechazado |
| 2021Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 2833.7 | “Tons sold (six months ended) 2,833.7 2,680.6 153.1 5.7 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 2229 | “Average selling price per ton sold (nine months ended) $ 2,229” | auditado ✓ |
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_selling_price_usd_ton (MD&A verificado) vs steel_ppi — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
23 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-26, verbatim del documento. 4 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27.
- nuevoRisks Related to Our Business and Industry
- Global economic conditions, including inflation, elevated interest rates, infectious disease and supply chain disruptions, have adversely affected, and could continue to adversely affect, our operations.
- Excess capacity and over-production by foreign metal producers or decreases in tariffs could increase the level of metal imports into the U.S., resulting in lower domestic prices, which would adversely affect our sales, margins and profitability.
- We operate in an industry that is subject to cyclical fluctuations and any downturn in general economic conditions or in our customers’ specific industries could negatively impact our profitability and cash flows.
- We compete with a large number of companies in the metals service center industry, and, if we are unable to compete effectively, our profitability and cash flows may decline.
- If we were to lose any of our primary suppliers or otherwise be unable to obtain sufficient amounts of necessary metals on a timely basis, we may not be able to meet our customers’ needs and may suffer reduced sales.
- We rely upon our suppliers as to the specifications of the metals we purchase from them.
- Climate change might adversely impact our supply chain or our operations.
- We face increased competition and pricing pressures from alternative materials and risks concerning innovation, new technologies, products and increasing customer requirements.
- We may not be successful in achieving expected operating efficiencies and sustaining or improving operating expense reductions, and might experience business disruptions associated with restructuring, realignment and cost reduction activities.
- Acquisitions present many risks, and we may not realize the financial and strategic goals that were contemplated at the time of each transaction.
- If we do not successfully implement our growth strategy, our ability to grow our business could be impaired.
- nuevoWe are a decentralized company which presents certain risks.
- nuevoWe are subject to various environmental, employee safety and health, and customs and export laws and regulations, which could subject us to significant liabilities and compliance expenditures.
- We operate internationally and are subject to changes in tax rates, exchange rate fluctuations, exchange controls, political risks and other risks relating to international operations.
- We rely on information management systems and any damage, interruption or compromise of our information technology management systems, networks or data could disrupt and harm our business.”
- Our enterprise data practices, including the collection, use, sharing, and security of the personal identifiable information of our customers, employees, or suppliers are subject to increasingly complex, restrictive, and punitive regulations in all key market regions.
- Our financial results may be affected by various legal and regulatory proceedings, including those involving antitrust, tax, environmental, or other matters.
- The volatility of the stock market could result in a material impairment of goodwill or indefinite-lived intangible assets.
- Our business operations and financial performance could be adversely affected by changes in our relationship with our employees or changes to U.S. or foreign employment regulations.
- We face certain risks associated with potential labor disruptions.
- If we are unable to attract, retain and develop key personnel, our business could be materially adversely affected.
- nuevoBecause a substantial portion of our indebtedness bears interest at rates that fluctuate with changes in certain prevailing short-term interest rates, we are vulnerable to increases in interest rates.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001104659-26-020651