RELIANCE, INC.

RSDistribución · service centersactualizado 2026-07-28
Precio
$414.33
IV prob-weighted
$185.07
Gap
-55%
TTM EBITDA≈
$1.38B
Net debt
$1.44B
Margen (percentil hist.)
94%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 6.42–10.67× EV/EBITDA (mediana 7.64×, 2006 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 33.0%, percentil 94% de su historia (16 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata steel_ppi anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 64% (n=36, p=0.0662): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+8.2% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
realizedPrecio realizado (avg_selling_price_usd_ton) vs spot: corr niveles 0.944, Δ 0.676, captura β 0.553 (n=33): el spot llega al P&L de forma parcial y con ruido trimestral — mismo cuello de botella que ALTO. [realized_model.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -72 bps alineados a 20d (hit 42%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -55%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia55/64 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (34 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
riesgosLa empresa declara 23 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-26, 4 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27. Concentracion: operacional 7, coste insumos 5, regulatorio 5. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$4.03Bn/d$437.1M2026-04-290001104659-26-051524
2025Q4$3.50Bn/d$235.6M2026-02-260001104659-26-020651
2025Q3$3.65Bn/d$330.3M2025-10-280001104659-25-103175
2025Q2$3.66Bn/d$381.9M2025-07-300001558370-25-009796
2025Q1$3.48Bn/d$343.1M2025-05-010001558370-25-006104
2024Q4$3.13Bn/d$212.4M2025-02-270001558370-25-001806
2024Q3$3.42Bn/d$341.3M2024-10-310001558370-24-013990
2024Q2$3.64Bn/d$418.3M2024-08-010001558370-24-010541
2024Q1$3.64Bn/d$456.7M2024-05-020001558370-24-006509
2023Q4$3.34Bn/d$388.0M2024-02-290001558370-24-002166
2023Q3$3.62Bn/d$450.1M2023-11-020001558370-23-017398
2023Q2$3.88Bn/d$572.1M2023-08-030001558370-23-013124
2023Q1$3.97Bn/d$574.7M2023-05-040001558370-23-008056
2022Q4$3.61Bn/d$516.2M2023-02-280001558370-23-002368
2022Q3$4.25Bn/d$608.9M2022-11-030001558370-22-016206
2022Q2$4.68Bn/d$846.8M2022-08-040001558370-22-012274

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube steel_ppi 8.2% QTD · a 2026-07-29

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
steel_ppi primaria (a priori)64%360.0662
metal_spread42%360.8785

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)

Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)

TrimestreMétricaValorCita textualEstado
2025Q2tons_shipped_k3243.9Tons sold (six months ended) 3,243.9auditado ✓
2018Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton1972Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,972auditado ✓
2024Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton2442Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,442 $ 2,623 $ (181) (6.9) %auditado ✓
2022Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton3073Average selling price per ton sold $ 3,073 $ 2,594 $ 479 18.5 %auditado ✓
2025Q4tons_shipped_k6388.1Tons sold 6,388.1 6,013.2 374.9 6.2 %rechazado
2025Q4metal_margin_usd_ton2020.9Gross profit $ 4,107.5 28.7 % $ 4,106.6 29.7 % $ 0.9 — %rechazado
2022Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton3213Average selling price per ton sold (six months ended) $ 3,213auditado ✓
2021Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton2020Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,020 $ 1,742 $ 278 16.0 %auditado ✓
2020Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton1742Average selling price per ton sold $ 1,742 $ 1,958 $ (216) (11.0) %auditado ✓
2023Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton2602Average selling price per ton sold (nine months ended) $ 2,602 $ 3,156 $ (554) (17.6) %auditado ✓
2017Q4metal_margin_usd_ton197.5Our gross profit increased in 2017 compared to 2016 due to higher tons sold and higher metals prices.rechazado
2026Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton2602Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 2,602auditado ✓
2019Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton1904Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,904 $ 1,890 $ 14 0.7 %auditado ✓
2022Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton3156Average selling price per ton sold (nine months ended) $ 3,156auditado ✓
2020Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton1681Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,681 $ 1,904 $ (223) (11.7) %auditado ✓
2025Q1tons_shipped_k1628.9Tons sold 1,628.9 1,494.0 134.9 9.0 %rechazado
2022Q2tons_shipped_k2873.6Tons sold (six months ended) 2,873.6auditado ✓
2024Q3scrap_cost_usd_ton0Our tons sold and average selling price per ton sold exclude our tons toll processed.rechazado
2023Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton2570Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,570 $ 3,073 $ (503) (16.4) %auditado ✓
2021Q3tons_shipped_k1358.2Tons sold (three months ended) 1,358.2 1,283.5 74.7 5.8 %auditado ✓
2021Q3metal_margin_usd_ton1211.1Gross profit (three months ended) $ 1,211.1 31.5 % $ 676.1 32.4 % $ 535.0 79.1 %auditado ✓
2023Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton2623Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,623 $ 3,186 $ (563) $ (17.7) %auditado ✓
2023Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton-19reflecting a 19.0% decrease in average selling price per ton sold.auditado ✓
2026Q2tons_shipped_k1790.1Tons sold (three months ended) 1,790.1auditado ✓
2024Q1tons_shipped_k1494Tons sold 1,494.0 1,520.1 (26.1) (1.7) %rechazado
2024Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton2303Average selling price per ton sold $ 2,303 $ 2,570 $ (267) (10.4) %auditado ✓
2020Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton1609Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,609 $ 1,807 $ (198) (11.0) %auditado ✓
2024Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton2394Average selling price per ton sold (six months ended) $ 2,394 $ 2,625 $ (231) (8.8) %auditado ✓
2019Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton1807Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,807 $ 1,972 $ (165) (8.4) %auditado ✓
2022Q3tons_shipped_k4279.6Tons sold (nine months ended) 4,279.6auditado ✓
2022Q4tons_shipped_k5570.8Tons sold 5,570.8 5,472.9 97.9 1.8 %rechazado
2018Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton1890Average selling price per ton sold (three months ended) $ 1,890auditado ✓
2018Q4scrap_cost_usd_ton0The increase in cost of sales in 2018 compared to 2017 is mainly due to a higher average cost per ton sold.rechazado
2017Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton1599Average selling price per ton sold $ 1,599 $ 1,465 $ 134 9.1 %auditado ✓
2024Q4tons_shipped_k6013.2Tons sold 6,013.2 5,779.2 234.0 4.0 %rechazado
2023Q4tons_shipped_k5779.2Tons sold 5,779.2 5,570.8 208.4 3.7 %rechazado
2026Q1tons_shipped_k1672.7Tons sold 1,672.7 1,628.9 43.8 2.7 %rechazado
2023Q3tons_shipped_k4425Tons sold (nine months ended) 4,425.0 4,279.6 145.4 3.4 %rechazado
2021Q2tons_shipped_k2833.7Tons sold (six months ended) 2,833.7 2,680.6 153.1 5.7 %auditado ✓
2025Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton2229Average selling price per ton sold (nine months ended) $ 2,229auditado ✓

Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)

avg_selling_price_usd_ton (MD&A verificado) vs steel_ppi — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado

Corr. niveles
0.94
Corr. Δ trimestral
0.68
β captura Δ%spot→Δ%real
0.55
n pares
33

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
-16 bps
hit 39% · n=36
5d tras filing
+31 bps
hit 61% · n=36
20d tras filing
-72 bps
hit 42% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

23 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-26, verbatim del documento. 4 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-27.

operacional 7coste insumos 5regulatorio 5laboral 5financiero 4demanda competencia 4geopolitico 3precio commodity 2clima agua 1ciberseguridad 1
  • nuevoRisks Related to Our Business and Industry
  • Global economic conditions, including inflation, elevated interest rates, infectious disease and supply chain disruptions, have adversely affected, and could continue to adversely affect, our operations.
  • Excess capacity and over-production by foreign metal producers or decreases in tariffs could increase the level of metal imports into the U.S., resulting in lower domestic prices, which would adversely affect our sales, margins and profitability.
  • We operate in an industry that is subject to cyclical fluctuations and any downturn in general economic conditions or in our customers’ specific industries could negatively impact our profitability and cash flows.
  • We compete with a large number of companies in the metals service center industry, and, if we are unable to compete effectively, our profitability and cash flows may decline.
  • If we were to lose any of our primary suppliers or otherwise be unable to obtain sufficient amounts of necessary metals on a timely basis, we may not be able to meet our customers’ needs and may suffer reduced sales.
  • We rely upon our suppliers as to the specifications of the metals we purchase from them.
  • Climate change might adversely impact our supply chain or our operations.
  • We face increased competition and pricing pressures from alternative materials and risks concerning innovation, new technologies, products and increasing customer requirements.
  • We may not be successful in achieving expected operating efficiencies and sustaining or improving operating expense reductions, and might experience business disruptions associated with restructuring, realignment and cost reduction activities.
  • Acquisitions present many risks, and we may not realize the financial and strategic goals that were contemplated at the time of each transaction.
  • If we do not successfully implement our growth strategy, our ability to grow our business could be impaired.
  • nuevoWe are a decentralized company which presents certain risks.
  • nuevoWe are subject to various environmental, employee safety and health, and customs and export laws and regulations, which could subject us to significant liabilities and compliance expenditures.
  • We operate internationally and are subject to changes in tax rates, exchange rate fluctuations, exchange controls, political risks and other risks relating to international operations.
  • We rely on information management systems and any damage, interruption or compromise of our information technology management systems, networks or data could disrupt and harm our business.”
  • Our enterprise data practices, including the collection, use, sharing, and security of the personal identifiable information of our customers, employees, or suppliers are subject to increasingly complex, restrictive, and punitive regulations in all key market regions.
  • Our financial results may be affected by various legal and regulatory proceedings, including those involving antitrust, tax, environmental, or other matters.
  • The volatility of the stock market could result in a material impairment of goodwill or indefinite-lived intangible assets.
  • Our business operations and financial performance could be adversely affected by changes in our relationship with our employees or changes to U.S. or foreign employment regulations.
  • We face certain risks associated with potential labor disruptions.
  • If we are unable to attract, retain and develop key personnel, our business could be materially adversely affected.
  • nuevoBecause a substantial portion of our indebtedness bears interest at rates that fluctuate with changes in certain prevailing short-term interest rates, we are vulnerable to increases in interest rates.

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001104659-26-020651

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)