SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/
SCCOCobre · mineraactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $4.25B | 64.8% | $2.71B | 2026-04-30 | 0001104659-26-052647 |
| 2025Q4 | $3.87B | 62.0% | $2.34B | 2026-02-27 | 0001104659-26-021492 |
| 2025Q3 | $3.38B | 59.8% | $1.98B | 2025-10-31 | 0001104659-25-104914 |
| 2025Q2 | $3.05B | 60.3% | $1.79B | 2025-07-31 | 0001558370-25-009879 |
| 2025Q1 | $3.12B | 57.7% | $1.76B | 2025-04-30 | 0001558370-25-005975 |
| 2024Q4 | $2.78B | 56.5% | $1.52B | 2025-03-03 | 0001558370-25-002017 |
| 2024Q3 | $2.93B | 58.3% | $1.66B | 2024-10-31 | 0001558370-24-014045 |
| 2024Q2 | $3.12B | 60.0% | $1.82B | 2024-08-02 | 0001558370-24-010710 |
| 2024Q1 | $2.60B | 55.5% | $1.40B | 2024-04-30 | 0001558370-24-006251 |
| 2023Q4 | $2.30B | 49.0% | $1.08B | 2024-02-29 | 0001558370-24-002119 |
| 2023Q3 | $2.51B | 53.1% | $1.28B | 2023-11-01 | 0001558370-23-017203 |
| 2023Q2 | $2.30B | 50.1% | $1.11B | 2023-08-01 | 0001558370-23-012746 |
| 2023Q1 | $2.79B | 57.3% | $1.56B | 2023-05-02 | 0001558370-23-007689 |
| 2022Q4 | $2.82B | 57.2% | $1.57B | 2023-02-28 | 0001558370-23-002328 |
| 2022Q3 | $2.16B | 47.2% | $979.2M | 2022-10-31 | 0001558370-22-015661 |
| 2022Q2 | $2.31B | 46.0% | $1.02B | 2022-07-27 | 0001558370-22-011154 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube — copper 3.9% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| copper primaria (a priori) | 67% | 36 | 0.0326 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
44/44 (100%) superan las 4 guardas deterministas; con la verificación de cita sola pasaban 44. Tabla: las 40 más recientes en orden cronológico, rechazadas incluidas (motivo en el tooltip).
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.9 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.90” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.55 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.55” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q3 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.42 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $0.42” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q2 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.14 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by‑product revenues $ 2.14 $ 1.99 $ 0.16 7.8 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.76 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.76” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q4 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.13 | “For the year 2024, our per pound operating cash cost before by-product revenues was $2.13, reflecting a 2.5% decrease compared to 2023.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.65 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.65” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q1 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 1.57 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.57” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q3 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.58 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenue $ 0.58” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q1 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 1.53 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.53” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q3 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.06 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.06 $ 1.62 $ 0.44 27.2 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q3 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 1.03 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 1.03 $ 0.58 $ 0.45 77.9 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q4 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.89 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues fell 13.9%, from $1.03 in 2023 to $0.89 in 2024.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 1.45 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.45” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.81 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.81” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.77 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.77” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 1.07 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 1.07” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.67 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by‑product revenues $ 0.67” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q1 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.09 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.09” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q2 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 1.99 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by‑product revenues $ 1.99 $ 1.56 $ 0.43 27.6 %” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q2 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.29 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $2.29” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | -0.11 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ (0.11)” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.94 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by product revenue was $0.94 in the six months end” | auditado ✓ |
| 2026Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.05 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $0.05” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q1 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 1.83 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.83” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q2 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 1.61 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by‑product revenues $ 1.61” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.59 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by‑product revenues $ 0.59” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q2 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.15 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.15” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.82 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by product revenue was $0.82 in the six months ended Jun” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.63 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.63” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q3 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.23 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $2.23” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q3 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.24 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.24” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q1 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.11 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.11” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q1 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.79 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.79” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q2 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.76 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.76” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.05 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.05” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q3 | unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb | 0.76 | “Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.76” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q3 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 1.36 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.36” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q3 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 1.95 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.95” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q2 | unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb | 2.11 | “Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.11” | auditado ✓ |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica copper y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 71% | 24 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 67% | 24 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 63% | 24 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 71% | 24 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
30 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-27, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-03-03.
- Our financial performance is highly dependent on the price of copper and the other metals we produce.
- Volatility in metals prices may also impact the price of our outstanding securities.
- Our business requires levels of capital investments that we may not be able to maintain.
- Restrictive covenants in the agreements governing our indebtedness and the indebtedness of our Minera Mexico subsidiary may restrict our ability to pursue our business strategies.
- We may not pay a significant amount of our net income as cash dividends on our common stock in the future.
- Our ability to recognize the benefits of deferred tax assets is dependent on future cash flows and taxable income.
- Our actual reserves and resources may not conform to our current estimates of our ore deposits and our long-term viability depends on our ability to replenish mineral reserves and resources.
- Our operations are subject to risks, some of which are not insurable.
- nuevoOur operations are subject to risks associated with the management of waste rock and tailings storage facilities, which are subject to significant environmental, safety and engineering challenges that could adversely affect our business.
- Changes in the demand level for our products and copper sales agreements could adversely affect our revenues.
- Interruptions of energy supply or increases in energy, fuel and gas costs, shortages of water supply, critical parts, equipment, skilled labor and other production costs may adversely affect our results of operations.
- Our Company is subject to health and safety laws that may restrict our operations, result in operational delays or increase our operating costs and adversely affect our financial results of operations.
- Our metals exploration efforts are highly speculative in nature and may be unsuccessful.
- We may be adversely affected by challenges relating to slope stability.
- We may be adversely affected by labor disputes.
- Our mining operations or metal production projects may be subject to stoppage and additional costs due to community actions and other factors.
- Environmental regulation, climate change and other regulations may increase our costs of doing business, restrict our operations or result in operational delays.
- Our mining and metal production projects may expose us to new risks.
- Our business depends upon information technology systems that may be adversely affected by disruptions, damage, cyber-attacks, failure and risks associated with implementation and integration.
- Our business is exposed to certain risks associated with artificial intelligence (“AI”) and other new technologies.
- Global and local market conditions, including the high competitiveness in the copper mining industry, may adversely affect our profitability.
- We are controlled by Grupo Mexico, which exercises control over our affairs and policies and whose interests may be different from yours.
- Unanticipated litigation or negative developments in pending litigation or with respect to other contingencies may adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.
- Developments in the United States, Europe and emerging market countries may adversely affect the Company business, the market value and trading price of our common stock and our debt securities.
- nuevoPotential developments in U.S. policy, regulatory uncertainty, threats or imposition of tariffs and trade tensions may materially affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
… 5 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001104659-26-021492