SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/

SCCOCobre · mineraactualizado 2026-07-28
Precio
$178.96
IV prob-weighted
$133.82
Gap
-25%
TTM EBITDA≈
$8.82B
Net debt
$1.84B
Margen (percentil hist.)
92%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Corrección publicada: 2026-08-03: retirado el modelo realized (corr_levels 0.786, beta 0.161). El campo avg_realized_copper_usd_lb contenia en realidad 'operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues': la verificacion de citas confirma el texto pero no detectaba misclasificacion semantica. Re-extraccion estricta en curso.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

10 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 11.34–16.53× EV/EBITDA (mediana 12.58×, 1060 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 64.8%, percentil 92% de su historia (37 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata copper anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 67% (n=36, p=0.0326): señal operativa utilizable. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2026Q1 (+3.9% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -187 bps alineados a 20d (hit 56%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -25%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia44/44 métricas del MD&A (100%) superan las cuatro guardas deterministas (cita en fuente, valor dentro de la cita, terminología del campo, ámbito consolidado). La cita sola la pasaban 44: la diferencia son misclasificaciones que la verificación textual no ve. [mdna_audit.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 23% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 77% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.147: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 71%, OLS commodity 67%, OLS+coste 62%, signo+coste 71%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 30 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-27, 2 nuevos frente al de 2025-03-03. Concentracion: operacional 15, regulatorio 6, coste insumos 6. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 37)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$4.25B64.8%$2.71B2026-04-300001104659-26-052647
2025Q4$3.87B62.0%$2.34B2026-02-270001104659-26-021492
2025Q3$3.38B59.8%$1.98B2025-10-310001104659-25-104914
2025Q2$3.05B60.3%$1.79B2025-07-310001558370-25-009879
2025Q1$3.12B57.7%$1.76B2025-04-300001558370-25-005975
2024Q4$2.78B56.5%$1.52B2025-03-030001558370-25-002017
2024Q3$2.93B58.3%$1.66B2024-10-310001558370-24-014045
2024Q2$3.12B60.0%$1.82B2024-08-020001558370-24-010710
2024Q1$2.60B55.5%$1.40B2024-04-300001558370-24-006251
2023Q4$2.30B49.0%$1.08B2024-02-290001558370-24-002119
2023Q3$2.51B53.1%$1.28B2023-11-010001558370-23-017203
2023Q2$2.30B50.1%$1.11B2023-08-010001558370-23-012746
2023Q1$2.79B57.3%$1.56B2023-05-020001558370-23-007689
2022Q4$2.82B57.2%$1.57B2023-02-280001558370-23-002328
2022Q3$2.16B47.2%$979.2M2022-10-310001558370-22-015661
2022Q2$2.31B46.0%$1.02B2022-07-270001558370-22-011154

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2026Q1): margen ▲ sube copper 3.9% QTD · a 2026-07-29

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
copper primaria (a priori)67%360.0326

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)

44/44 (100%) superan las 4 guardas deterministas; con la verificación de cita sola pasaban 44. Tabla: las 40 más recientes en orden cronológico, rechazadas incluidas (motivo en el tooltip).

TrimestreMétricaValorCita textualEstado
2019Q1unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.9Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.90auditado ✓
2022Q1unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.55Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.55auditado ✓
2025Q3unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.42Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $0.42auditado ✓
2023Q2unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.14Operating cash cost per pound before by‑product revenues $ 2.14 $ 1.99 $ 0.16 7.8 %auditado ✓
2023Q1unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.76Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.76auditado ✓
2024Q4unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.13For the year 2024, our per pound operating cash cost before by-product revenues was $2.13, reflecting a 2.5% decrease compared to 2023.auditado ✓
2020Q3unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.65Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.65auditado ✓
2018Q1unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb1.57Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.57auditado ✓
2021Q3unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.58Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenue $ 0.58auditado ✓
2019Q1unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb1.53Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.53auditado ✓
2022Q3unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.06Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.06 $ 1.62 $ 0.44 27.2 %auditado ✓
2022Q3unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb1.03Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 1.03 $ 0.58 $ 0.45 77.9 %auditado ✓
2024Q4unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.89Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues fell 13.9%, from $1.03 in 2023 to $0.89 in 2024.auditado ✓
2019Q2unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb1.45Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.45auditado ✓
2019Q2unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.81Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.81auditado ✓
2025Q1unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.77Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.77auditado ✓
2024Q1unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb1.07Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 1.07auditado ✓
2020Q2unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.67Operating cash cost per pound net of by‑product revenues $ 0.67auditado ✓
2023Q1unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.09Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.09auditado ✓
2022Q2unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb1.99Operating cash cost per pound before by‑product revenues $ 1.99 $ 1.56 $ 0.43 27.6 %auditado ✓
2026Q2unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.29Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $2.29auditado ✓
2026Q1unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb-0.11Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ (0.11)auditado ✓
2023Q2unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.94Operating cash cost per pound net of by product revenue was $0.94 in the six months endauditado ✓
2026Q2unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.05Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $0.05auditado ✓
2022Q1unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb1.83Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.83auditado ✓
2021Q2unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb1.61Operating cash cost per pound before by‑product revenues $ 1.61auditado ✓
2021Q2unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.59Operating cash cost per pound net of by‑product revenues $ 0.59auditado ✓
2024Q2unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.15Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.15auditado ✓
2022Q2unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.82Operating cash cost per pound net of by product revenue was $0.82 in the six months ended Junauditado ✓
2025Q2unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.63Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.63auditado ✓
2025Q3unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.23Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $2.23auditado ✓
2023Q3unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.24Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.24auditado ✓
2024Q1unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.11Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.11auditado ✓
2018Q1unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.79Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.79auditado ✓
2024Q2unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.76Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.76auditado ✓
2025Q1unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.05Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.05auditado ✓
2024Q3unit_cash_cost_net_usd_lb0.76Operating cash cost per pound net of by-product revenues $ 0.76auditado ✓
2020Q3unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb1.36Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.36auditado ✓
2024Q3unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb1.95Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 1.95auditado ✓
2025Q2unit_cash_cost_gross_usd_lb2.11Operating cash cost per pound before by-product revenues $ 2.11auditado ✓

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica copper y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 36 trimestres

R² del commodity
23%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
77%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.15
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor71%24
OLS sobre el commodity67%24
OLS + momentum de coste63%24
Signo + momentum de coste mejor71%24

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
-43 bps
hit 42% · n=36
5d tras filing
-213 bps
hit 39% · n=36
20d tras filing
-187 bps
hit 56% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

30 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-27, verbatim del documento. 2 son nuevos frente al de 2025-03-03.

operacional 15regulatorio 6coste insumos 6financiero 4precio commodity 3geopolitico 3demanda competencia 2laboral 2clima agua 2ciberseguridad 1
  • Our financial performance is highly dependent on the price of copper and the other metals we produce.
  • Volatility in metals prices may also impact the price of our outstanding securities.
  • Our business requires levels of capital investments that we may not be able to maintain.
  • Restrictive covenants in the agreements governing our indebtedness and the indebtedness of our Minera Mexico subsidiary may restrict our ability to pursue our business strategies.
  • We may not pay a significant amount of our net income as cash dividends on our common stock in the future.
  • Our ability to recognize the benefits of deferred tax assets is dependent on future cash flows and taxable income.
  • Our actual reserves and resources may not conform to our current estimates of our ore deposits and our long-term viability depends on our ability to replenish mineral reserves and resources.
  • Our operations are subject to risks, some of which are not insurable.
  • nuevoOur operations are subject to risks associated with the management of waste rock and tailings storage facilities, which are subject to significant environmental, safety and engineering challenges that could adversely affect our business.
  • Changes in the demand level for our products and copper sales agreements could adversely affect our revenues.
  • Interruptions of energy supply or increases in energy, fuel and gas costs, shortages of water supply, critical parts, equipment, skilled labor and other production costs may adversely affect our results of operations.
  • Our Company is subject to health and safety laws that may restrict our operations, result in operational delays or increase our operating costs and adversely affect our financial results of operations.
  • Our metals exploration efforts are highly speculative in nature and may be unsuccessful.
  • We may be adversely affected by challenges relating to slope stability.
  • We may be adversely affected by labor disputes.
  • Our mining operations or metal production projects may be subject to stoppage and additional costs due to community actions and other factors.
  • Environmental regulation, climate change and other regulations may increase our costs of doing business, restrict our operations or result in operational delays.
  • Our mining and metal production projects may expose us to new risks.
  • Our business depends upon information technology systems that may be adversely affected by disruptions, damage, cyber-attacks, failure and risks associated with implementation and integration.
  • Our business is exposed to certain risks associated with artificial intelligence (“AI”) and other new technologies.
  • Global and local market conditions, including the high competitiveness in the copper mining industry, may adversely affect our profitability.
  • We are controlled by Grupo Mexico, which exercises control over our affairs and policies and whose interests may be different from yours.
  • Unanticipated litigation or negative developments in pending litigation or with respect to other contingencies may adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.
  • Developments in the United States, Europe and emerging market countries may adversely affect the Company business, the market value and trading price of our common stock and our debt securities.
  • nuevoPotential developments in U.S. policy, regulatory uncertainty, threats or imposition of tariffs and trade tensions may materially affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

5 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001104659-26-021492

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)