STEEL DYNAMICS INC
STLDAcero EAF · mini-mill + reciclajeactualizado 2026-07-28Precio
$259.74
IV prob-weighted
$81.27
Gap
-69%
TTM EBITDA≈
$2.67B
Net debt
$3.61B
Margen (percentil hist.)
37%
⚠ Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.
Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
11 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 4.18–9.04× EV/EBITDA (mediana 5.59×, 1864 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 15.7%, percentil 37% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata metal_spread anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 54% (n=37, p=0.3714): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: steel_ppi 81% (n=37, p=0.0001), scrap_ppi 68% (n=37, p=0.0235). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
realizedPrecio realizado (avg_selling_price_usd_ton) vs spot: corr niveles 0.654, Δ 0.375, captura β 1.125 (n=15): el spot llega al P&L de forma parcial y con ruido trimestral — mismo cuello de botella que ALTO. [realized_model.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +24 bps alineados a 20d (hit 53%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -69%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia106/114 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (35 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 1% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 99% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo 0.238: persiste). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 68%, OLS commodity 40%, OLS+coste 56%, signo+coste 60%. Gana regla de signo: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 19 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-27, 4 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-28. Concentracion: operacional 10, coste insumos 6, demanda competencia 5. [risk_factors.json]
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $6.09B | 15.7% | $874.4M | 2026-07-28 | 0001104659-26-087414 |
| 2026Q1 | $5.20B | 14.7% | $697.3M | 2026-04-27 | 0001104659-26-049415 |
| 2025Q4 | $4.41B | 12.0% | $456.5M | 2026-02-27 | 0001104659-26-021395 |
| 2025Q3 | $4.83B | 15.7% | $646.2M | 2025-10-24 | 0001104659-25-102052 |
| 2025Q2 | $4.57B | 13.6% | $515.7M | 2025-08-11 | 0001558370-25-011019 |
| 2025Q1 | $4.37B | 11.1% | $408.9M | 2025-05-12 | 0001558370-25-007346 |
| 2024Q4 | $3.87B | 11.4% | $363.1M | 2025-02-28 | 0001558370-25-001886 |
| 2024Q3 | $4.34B | 13.9% | $516.5M | 2024-11-08 | 0001558370-24-015022 |
| 2024Q2 | $4.63B | 16.7% | $676.2M | 2024-08-08 | 0001558370-24-011535 |
| 2024Q1 | $4.69B | 20.9% | $866.2M | 2024-05-10 | 0001558370-24-007736 |
| 2023Q4 | $4.23B | 17.3% | $630.3M | 2024-11-08 | 0001558370-24-002152 |
| 2023Q3 | $4.59B | 20.8% | $841.0M | 2024-11-08 | 0001558370-24-015022 |
| 2023Q2 | $5.08B | 25.7% | $1.17B | 2024-08-08 | 0001558370-24-011535 |
| 2023Q1 | $4.89B | 21.6% | $943.1M | 2023-05-05 | 0001558370-23-008282 |
| 2022Q4 | $5.45B | 18.1% | $861.3M | 2023-02-28 | 0001558370-23-002303 |
| 2022Q3 | $5.44B | 26.9% | $1.32B | 2022-10-26 | 0001558370-22-015423 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| metal_spread primaria (a priori) | 54% | 37 | 0.3714 |
| steel_ppi | 81% | 37 | 0.0001 |
| scrap_ppi | 68% | 37 | 0.0235 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 10111115 | “Steel Operations Segment shipments 10,111,115 4% 9,716,937” | auditado ✓ |
| 2022Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 2691918 | “External shipments 2,691,918 8% 2,504,007” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 2593705 | “Steel Operations Segment shipments 2,593,705 6% 2,437,008” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 2750725 | “Steel Operations Segment shipments 2,750,725 (2)% 2,814,877” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 158 | “an increase of $158 per ton, or 21%, in average selling prices” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 111 | “Second quarter 2024 total steel segment average selling prices decreased 9%, or $111 per ton, compared to the second quarter of 2023.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 249 | “total steel segment average selling prices decreased 18%, or $249 per ton, compared to 2022” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “due to decreases in overall steel selling prices, particularly in the sheet products, and decreased steel mill shipments.” | rechazado |
| 2020Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | -75 | “Third quarter 2020 average selling prices decreased 9%, or $75 per ton, compared to third quarter 2019” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 882 | “Our metallic raw material cost per net ton consumed in our steel operations increased $17, or 5%, in the first quarter 2019, compared to the same period in 2018, consistent with overall increased dome” | rechazado |
| 2026Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 162 | “as a result of average selling prices rising more than scrap costs, metal spread (which we define as the difference between average steel mill selling prices and the cost of ferrous scrap consumed in ” | rechazado |
| 2019Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 17 | “As a result of average selling prices increasing more than scrap costs, metal spread (which we define as the difference between average selling prices and the cost of ferrous scrap consumed in our ste” | rechazado |
| 2020Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | -69 | “overall steel segment operations average selling prices decreased 8%, or $69 per ton, in 2020 compared to 2019” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 621 | “average steel mill selling prices and the cost of ferrous scrap consumed in our steel mills) increased 86% in 2021 compared to 2020.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 3264861 | “Steel Operations Segment shipments 3,264,861 14% 2,860,703” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 269 | “First quarter 2021 average selling prices increased 35%, or $269 per ton, compared to first quarter 2020.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2023Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 340 | “First quarter 2023 total steel segment average selling prices decreased 32%, or $496 per ton, compared to first quarter of 2022.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 0 | “A solid non-residential construction market during 2024 benefited our steel fabrication operations, as the segment achieved historically strong volumes and average selling prices, compared to pre-Covi” | rechazado |
| 2020Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 100000 | “As a result of average selling prices decreasing more than scrap costs, metal spread (which we define as the difference between average steel mill selling prices and the cost of ferrous scrap consumed” | rechazado |
| 2025Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 878.5 | “First quarter 2025 total steel segment average selling prices decreased 17%, or $204 per ton, compared to the first quarter of 2024.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “Our metallic raw material cost per net ton consumed in our steel mills increased $20 per ton, or 5%, in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “” | rechazado |
| 2022Q2 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 247 | “Second quarter 2022 total steel segment average selling prices however increased 19%, or $247 per ton, compared to second quarter of 2021.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 572.5 | “Our metallic raw material cost per net ton consumed in our steel mills decreased $31 per ton, or 7%, in the first quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, consistent with overall decrease” | rechazado |
| 2018Q4 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 48 | “Our metallic raw material cost per net ton consumed in our steel operations increased $48, or 16%, in 2018, compared to 2017” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 74 | “due primarily to an increase of $74 per ton, or 10%, in average selling prices consistent with increased steel market pricing.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2019Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 2437008 | “Steel Operations Segment shipments 2,437,008 1% 2,412,991” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 2260800 | “Steel Operations Segment shipments 2,260,800 (9)% 2,489,334” | auditado ✓ |
| 2020Q1 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “Our metallic raw material cost per net ton consumed in our steel operations decreased $71, or 21%, in the first quarter 2020, compared to the same period in 2019” | rechazado |
| 2023Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 3309 | “Total shipments 3,309,296 14% 2,894,828” | rechazado |
| 2018Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 212 | “Net sales for the steel operations increased 40% in the third quarter 2018 when compared to the same period in 2017, due to the 10% increase in shipments and an increase of $212 per ton, or 27%, in av” | rechazado |
| 2019Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “Our metallic raw material cost per net ton consumed in our steel operations decreased $32, or 9%, in the second quarter 2019, compared to the same period in 2018, consistent with overall decreased dom” | rechazado |
| 2022Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 10804344 | “Steel Operations Segment shipments 10,804,344 7% 10,111,115” | auditado ✓ |
| 2021Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 621 | “average selling prices increasing 81%, or $621 per ton” | auditado ✓ |
| 2018Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 159 | “due primarily to an increase of $159 per ton, or 20%, in average selling prices consistent with increased steel market pricing” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 190 | “Third quarter 2023 total steel segment average selling prices decreased 14%, or $190 per ton, compared to third quarter of 2022.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 3481.539 | “Steel Operations Segment Shipments (tons): Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 Total shipments 3,481,539 7% 3,255,594” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 12700 | “we achieved steel shipments of 12.7 million tons, our second highest annual volume behind 2023’s 12.8 million tons” | rechazado |
| 2022Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 181 | “Third quarter 2022 total steel segment average selling prices decreased 12%, or $181 per ton, compared to third quarter of 2021.” | auditado ✓ |
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica metal_spread y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
R² del commodity
1%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
99%
AR(1) del residuo
0.24
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) mejor | 68% | 25 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 40% | 25 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 56% | 25 |
| Signo + momentum de coste | 60% | 25 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_selling_price_usd_ton (MD&A verificado) vs steel_ppi — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Corr. niveles
0.65
Corr. Δ trimestral
0.38
β captura Δ%spot→Δ%real
1.13
n pares
15
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
1d tras filing
+32 bps
hit 56% · n=36
5d tras filing
-27 bps
hit 50% · n=36
20d tras filing
+24 bps
hit 53% · n=36
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
19 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-27, verbatim del documento. 4 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-28.
operacional 10coste insumos 6demanda competencia 5financiero 5regulatorio 4precio commodity 3clima agua 1ciberseguridad 1laboral 1geopolitico 1
- nuevoOur industries, as well as the industries of many of our customers and suppliers upon whom we are dependent, are affected by domestic and global economic factors including periods of slower than anticipated economic growth and the risk of a recession.
- Global steelmaking overcapacity and imports of steel into the United States may adversely affect United States steel prices, which, together with increased scrap prices, may adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Our level of production and our sales and earnings are subject to significant fluctuations as a result of the cyclical nature of the metals industries and some of the other industries we serve.
- Volatility and major fluctuations in prices and availability of scrap metal, scrap substitutes and supplies, and our potential inability to pass higher costs on to our customers, may constrain operating levels and reduce profit margins.
- The cost and availability of electricity, natural gas, oil and other energy resources are subject to volatile market conditions.
- Increased environmental, GHG emissions and sustainability considerations from our customers and investors or related regulations could affect demand for our products and add significant costs.
- Compliance with and changes in environmental and remediation requirements may result in substantially increased capital requirements and operating costs.
- We may face significant price and other forms of competition from other steel and aluminum producers, scrap processors and alternative materials, which may adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
- Availability of an adequate source of supply of scrap is required for our metals recycling operations.
- We are subject to cybersecurity threats and may face risks to the security of our sensitive data and information technology which may adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- We may face risks associated with the implementation of our growth strategy.
- We may face risks associated with our ability to retain, develop and attract key personnel.
- We are subject to litigation and legal compliance risks which may adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations and liquidity.
- Unexpected equipment downtime or shutdowns may adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
- nuevoWe may experience difficulties in the launch or production ramp-up of new products which may adversely affect our business.
- nuevoOur aluminum operations depend on a core group of significant customers.
- Governmental agencies may refuse to grant or renew some of our licenses and permits required to operate our businesses.
- nuevoOur existing debt agreements contain, and any future financing agreements may contain, restrictive covenants that may limit our flexibility.
- Impairment charges may adversely affect our results of operations.
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001104659-26-021395
Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)
Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)