TYSON FOODS, INC.
TSNProteina animal · pollo, vacuno y cerdoactualizado 2026-08-03Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $13.87B | 6.6% | $635.0M | 2026-08-03 | 0000100493-26-000058 |
| 2026Q1 | $13.65B | 7.0% | $728.0M | 2026-05-04 | 0000100493-26-000020 |
| 2025Q4 | $14.31B | 5.7% | $678.0M | 2026-02-02 | 0000100493-26-000007 |
| 2025Q3 | $13.86B | 5.2% | $479.0M | 2025-11-10 | 0000100493-25-000095 |
| 2025Q2 | $13.88B | 8.2% | $522.0M | 2025-08-04 | 0000100493-25-000076 |
| 2025Q1 | $13.07B | 4.6% | $385.0M | 2025-05-05 | 0000100493-25-000056 |
| 2024Q4 | $13.62B | 8.0% | $928.0M | 2025-02-03 | 0000100493-25-000007 |
| 2024Q3 | $13.56B | 7.8% | $831.0M | 2025-08-04 | 0000100493-24-000119 |
| 2024Q2 | $13.35B | 6.6% | $701.0M | 2025-08-04 | 0000100493-25-000076 |
| 2024Q1 | $13.07B | 6.6% | n/d | 2025-05-05 | 0000100493-25-000056 |
| 2023Q4 | $13.32B | 6.2% | $604.0M | 2025-02-03 | 0000100493-25-000007 |
| 2023Q3 | $13.35B | 3.4% | $-77.0M | 2024-11-12 | 0000100493-24-000119 |
| 2023Q3 | $13.14B | 5.1% | $-27.0M | 2023-08-10 | 0000100493-23-000089 |
| 2023Q2 | $13.13B | 4.0% | n/d | 2023-05-08 | 0000100493-23-000067 |
| 2022Q4 | $13.26B | 7.3% | $770.0M | 2023-02-06 | 0000100493-23-000025 |
| 2022Q4 | $13.74B | 9.5% | $1.06B | 2024-11-12 | 0000100493-24-000119 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| protein_vs_feed primaria (a priori) | 57% | 37 | 0.2557 |
| poultry_ppi | 43% | 37 | 0.838 |
| corn | 35% | 37 | 0.9765 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica protein_vs_feed y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 27 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 46% | 13 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 33% | 15 |
| OLS + momentum de coste mejor | 53% | 15 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 53% | 15 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
31 factores del 10-K de 2025-11-10, verbatim del documento. 0 son nuevos frente al de 2024-11-12.
- We may not realize any or all of the anticipated benefits of our financial excellence programs and operational optimization plans, which may prove to be more difficult, costly or time consuming than expected.
- We are subject to risks associated with our international activities, which could negatively affect our sales to customers in foreign locations, as well as our operations and assets in such locations and in the United States.
- Global pandemics have had, and may in the future have, an adverse impact on our business and operations.
- Our business and reputation could suffer if we are unable to protect our information technology systems against, or effectively respond to, cyber attacks, other cyber incidents or security breaches or if our information technology systems are otherwise disrupted.
- We may not be able to successfully consummate favorable strategic acquisitions or divestitures or successfully integrate acquired businesses.
- Tyson Limited Partnership can exercise significant control.
- Fluctuations in commodity prices and in the availability of raw materials, especially feed grains, live cattle, live swine and other inputs could negatively impact our earnings.
- The prices we receive for our products may fluctuate due to competition from other food producers and processors.
- Disease outbreaks can adversely impact our ability to conduct our operations and the supply and demand for our products.
- Changes in consumer preference and failure to maintain favorable consumer perception of our brands and products could negatively impact our business.
- Failure to continually innovate and successfully launch new products and maintain our brand image through marketing investment could adversely impact our operating results.
- The loss of one or more of our largest customers could negatively impact our business.
- Failure to leverage our brand value propositions to compete against private label products, especially during economic downturn, may adversely affect our profitability.
- Labor shortages and increased turnover or increases in employee and employee-related costs could have adverse effects on our profitability.
- We depend on the availability of, and good relations with, our team members and their labor unions.
- If we are unable to attract, hire or retain key team members or a highly skilled and experienced global workforce, it could have a negative impact on our business, financial condition or results of operations.
- We depend on contract farmers and independent producers to supply us with livestock.
- Product liability claims could adversely affect our business operations and financial results, or damage our reputation.
- The Company is required to comply with stringent environmental laws and regulations.
- New or more stringent domestic and international government regulations could impose material costs on us and could adversely affect our business.
- Failure to comply with applicable legal standards or requirements could result in regulatory enforcement actions, legal claims or class actions lawsuits, or affect our product sales, reputation and profitability.
- Climate change may have a long-term adverse impact on our business.
- Our level of indebtedness and the terms of our indebtedness could negatively impact our business and liquidity position.
- An impairment in the carrying value of our goodwill or indefinite life intangible assets could negatively impact our consolidated results of operations and net worth.
- Participation in a Multiemployer Pension Plan could adversely affect our business.
… 6 más en risk_factors.json
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