TYSON FOODS, INC.

TSNProteina animal · pollo, vacuno y cerdoactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$59.61
IV prob-weighted
$39.72
Gap
-33%
TTM EBITDA≈
$2.52B
Net debt
$5.84B
Margen (percentil hist.)
24%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

8 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 6.26–9.53× EV/EBITDA (mediana 7.73×, 1938 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 6.6%, percentil 24% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona de suelo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata protein_vs_feed anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 57% (n=37, p=0.2557): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +40 bps alineados a 20d (hit 50%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -33%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 0% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 100% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.573: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 46%, OLS commodity 33%, OLS+coste 53%, signo+coste 53%. Gana OLS+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 31 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2025-11-10, 0 nuevos frente al de 2024-11-12. Concentracion: operacional 7, financiero 6, coste insumos 5. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$13.87B6.6%$635.0M2026-08-030000100493-26-000058
2026Q1$13.65B7.0%$728.0M2026-05-040000100493-26-000020
2025Q4$14.31B5.7%$678.0M2026-02-020000100493-26-000007
2025Q3$13.86B5.2%$479.0M2025-11-100000100493-25-000095
2025Q2$13.88B8.2%$522.0M2025-08-040000100493-25-000076
2025Q1$13.07B4.6%$385.0M2025-05-050000100493-25-000056
2024Q4$13.62B8.0%$928.0M2025-02-030000100493-25-000007
2024Q3$13.56B7.8%$831.0M2025-08-040000100493-24-000119
2024Q2$13.35B6.6%$701.0M2025-08-040000100493-25-000076
2024Q1$13.07B6.6%n/d2025-05-050000100493-25-000056
2023Q4$13.32B6.2%$604.0M2025-02-030000100493-25-000007
2023Q3$13.35B3.4%$-77.0M2024-11-120000100493-24-000119
2023Q3$13.14B5.1%$-27.0M2023-08-100000100493-23-000089
2023Q2$13.13B4.0%n/d2023-05-080000100493-23-000067
2022Q4$13.26B7.3%$770.0M2023-02-060000100493-23-000025
2022Q4$13.74B9.5%$1.06B2024-11-120000100493-24-000119

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
protein_vs_feed primaria (a priori)57%370.2557
poultry_ppi43%370.838
corn35%370.9765

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica protein_vs_feed y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 27 trimestres

R² del commodity
0%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
100%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.57
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)46%13
OLS sobre el commodity33%15
OLS + momentum de coste mejor53%15
Signo + momentum de coste mejor53%15

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+76 bps
hit 69% · n=36
5d tras filing
+53 bps
hit 64% · n=36
20d tras filing
+40 bps
hit 50% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

31 factores del 10-K de 2025-11-10, verbatim del documento. 0 son nuevos frente al de 2024-11-12.

operacional 7financiero 6coste insumos 5demanda competencia 5regulatorio 5laboral 3geopolitico 2precio commodity 2ciberseguridad 1clima agua 1
  • We may not realize any or all of the anticipated benefits of our financial excellence programs and operational optimization plans, which may prove to be more difficult, costly or time consuming than expected.
  • We are subject to risks associated with our international activities, which could negatively affect our sales to customers in foreign locations, as well as our operations and assets in such locations and in the United States.
  • Global pandemics have had, and may in the future have, an adverse impact on our business and operations.
  • Our business and reputation could suffer if we are unable to protect our information technology systems against, or effectively respond to, cyber attacks, other cyber incidents or security breaches or if our information technology systems are otherwise disrupted.
  • We may not be able to successfully consummate favorable strategic acquisitions or divestitures or successfully integrate acquired businesses.
  • Tyson Limited Partnership can exercise significant control.
  • Fluctuations in commodity prices and in the availability of raw materials, especially feed grains, live cattle, live swine and other inputs could negatively impact our earnings.
  • The prices we receive for our products may fluctuate due to competition from other food producers and processors.
  • Disease outbreaks can adversely impact our ability to conduct our operations and the supply and demand for our products.
  • Changes in consumer preference and failure to maintain favorable consumer perception of our brands and products could negatively impact our business.
  • Failure to continually innovate and successfully launch new products and maintain our brand image through marketing investment could adversely impact our operating results.
  • The loss of one or more of our largest customers could negatively impact our business.
  • Failure to leverage our brand value propositions to compete against private label products, especially during economic downturn, may adversely affect our profitability.
  • Labor shortages and increased turnover or increases in employee and employee-related costs could have adverse effects on our profitability.
  • We depend on the availability of, and good relations with, our team members and their labor unions.
  • If we are unable to attract, hire or retain key team members or a highly skilled and experienced global workforce, it could have a negative impact on our business, financial condition or results of operations.
  • We depend on contract farmers and independent producers to supply us with livestock.
  • Product liability claims could adversely affect our business operations and financial results, or damage our reputation.
  • The Company is required to comply with stringent environmental laws and regulations.
  • New or more stringent domestic and international government regulations could impose material costs on us and could adversely affect our business.
  • Failure to comply with applicable legal standards or requirements could result in regulatory enforcement actions, legal claims or class actions lawsuits, or affect our product sales, reputation and profitability.
  • Climate change may have a long-term adverse impact on our business.
  • Our level of indebtedness and the terms of our indebtedness could negatively impact our business and liquidity position.
  • An impairment in the carrying value of our goodwill or indefinite life intangible assets could negatively impact our consolidated results of operations and net worth.
  • Participation in a Multiemployer Pension Plan could adversely affect our business.

6 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000100493-25-000095

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)