TEXTRON INC

TXTW: defensa · aeroestructuras y municiónactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$86.39
IV prob-weighted
$83.00
Gap
-4%
TTM EBITDA≈
$1.98B
Net debt
$-1.61B
Margen (percentil hist.)
53%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Precio del tungsteno (APT) — fuente CTIA

No existe serie pública del tungsteno en FRED; esta se extrae del texto de los partes de CTIA con cita verificada. 108 meses disponibles: sirve para leer el momento, NO para validar históricamente.

APT 2026-08
610.000 RMB/t
vs hace 12 meses
+103%
desde el máximo
-59%
MesAPT (RMB/t)Horquilla p25–p75Citas
2026-08610.000610.000610.0005
2026-07610.000600.000660.00088
2026-06780.000750.000800.00073
2026-05816.800660.0001.020.00064
2026-041.380.0001.340.0001.430.00077
2026-031.490.0001.330.0001.500.00070
2026-02995.000920.0001.033.30058
2026-01751.071710.000795.00084
2025-12555.000518.000630.00093
2025-11472.000460.000484.00075
2025-10403.000393.000412.00079
2025-09403.400398.000410.00078

Mediana de las citas del mes. La horquilla ancha indica que ese mes mezcla menciones al precio del día, a la media mensual y a la media acumulada del año. Trazabilidad completa (cita + URL del post) en market/tungsten_prices_raw.csv.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

7 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 6.55–7.8× EV/EBITDA (mediana 7.18×, 1940 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 16.9%, percentil 53% de su historia (19 trimestres): zona media del ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata indpro anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 61% (n=18, p=0.2403): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-08-04): margen al alza vs 2021Q4 (+1.2% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → +261 bps alineados a 20d (hit 59%, n=34), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -4%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
riesgosLa empresa declara 25 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-11, 1 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-06. Concentracion: regulatorio 7, geopolitico 6, demanda competencia 4. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 36)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q3$3.83Bn/dn/d2026-07-280000217346-26-000036
2026Q2$3.69Bn/dn/d2026-04-300000217346-26-000012
2025Q3$3.60Bn/dn/d2025-10-230000217346-25-000077
2025Q2$3.72Bn/dn/d2025-07-240000217346-25-000068
2025Q1$3.31Bn/dn/d2025-04-240000217346-25-000046
2024Q4$3.61Bn/dn/d2025-02-060000217346-25-000017
2024Q3$3.43Bn/dn/d2024-10-240000217346-24-000092
2024Q2$3.53Bn/dn/d2024-07-300000217346-24-000084
2024Q1$3.13Bn/dn/d2024-04-250000217346-24-000052
2023Q4$3.89Bn/dn/d2024-02-120000217346-24-000017
2023Q3$3.34Bn/dn/d2023-10-260000217346-23-000033
2023Q3$3.42Bn/dn/d2023-07-270000217346-23-000023
2023Q2$3.02Bn/dn/d2023-04-270000217346-23-000014
2022Q4$3.64Bn/dn/d2023-02-160000217346-23-000006
2022Q4$3.08Bn/dn/d2022-10-270000217346-22-000025
2022Q3$3.15Bn/dn/d2022-07-280000217346-22-000021

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2021Q4): margen ▲ sube indpro 1.2% QTD · a 2026-08-04

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
indpro primaria (a priori)61%180.2403

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+18 bps
hit 54% · n=35
5d tras filing
+4 bps
hit 47% · n=34
20d tras filing
+261 bps
hit 59% · n=34

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

25 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-11, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-06.

regulatorio 7geopolitico 6demanda competencia 4coste insumos 4operacional 3laboral 3financiero 2precio commodity 1ciberseguridad 1clima agua 1
  • Demand for our aircraft products is cyclical and lower demand adversely affects our financial results.
  • We have customer concentration with the U.S. Government; reduction in U.S. Government defense spending can adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
  • U.S. Government contracts can be terminated at any time and may contain other unfavorable provisions.
  • As a U.S. Government contractor, we are subject to procurement rules and regulations; our failure to comply with these rules and regulations could adversely affect our business.
  • As a U.S. Government contractor, our businesses and systems are subject to audit and review by the Defense Contract Audit Agency (DCAA) and the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA).
  • Our profitability and cash flow varies depending on the mix of our government contracts and our ability to control costs
  • The market for U.S. Government defense business is highly competitive, and the competitive bidding process increases pricing pressure and cost which may affect our ability to win new contracts for major government programs.
  • Developing new products and technologies entails significant risks and uncertainties.
  • We have made and may continue to make acquisitions that increase the risks of our business.
  • nuevoGlobal macroeconomic conditions could negatively impact our business.
  • Our business could be negatively impacted by cybersecurity threats and other disruptions.
  • Challenges faced by our subcontractors or suppliers could materially and adversely affect our performance.
  • We are subject to risks of doing business globally that could adversely impact our business.
  • Natural disasters or other events outside of our control have disrupted and may in the future disrupt our operations, adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition, and may not be fully covered by insurance.
  • If our Finance segment has difficulty collecting on its finance receivables, our financial performance could be adversely affected.
  • We periodically need to obtain financing and such financing may not be available to us on satisfactory terms, if at all.
  • Unanticipated changes in our tax rates or exposure to additional income tax liabilities could affect our profitability.
  • We are subject to increasing compliance risks that could adversely affect our operating results.
  • Certain of our products are subject to laws regulating consumer products and could be subject to repurchase or recall as a result of safety issues.
  • Increased regulation and stakeholder expectations related to global climate change could negatively affect our operating results.
  • We are subject to legal proceedings and other claims.
  • Intellectual property infringement claims of others and the inability to protect our intellectual property rights could harm our business and our customers.
  • Our success is highly dependent on our ability to hire, train and retain a qualified workforce.
  • The increasing costs of certain employee and retiree benefits could adversely affect our results.
  • Our business could be adversely affected by strikes or work stoppages and other labor issues.

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0000217346-26-000006

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)