CVR PARTNERS, LP
UANFertilizante nitrogenado · UAN y amoniacoactualizado 2026-08-03Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $202.2M | 46.1% | $107.0M | 2026-07-29 | 0001425292-26-000031 |
| 2026Q1 | $180.0M | 37.5% | $77.6M | 2026-04-29 | 0001425292-26-000022 |
| 2025Q4 | $131.1M | 4.4% | $20.1M | 2026-02-18 | 0001425292-26-000011 |
| 2025Q3 | $163.5M | 37.0% | $70.6M | 2025-10-30 | 0001425292-25-000030 |
| 2025Q2 | $168.6M | 32.4% | $67.2M | 2025-07-31 | 0001425292-25-000022 |
| 2025Q1 | $142.9M | 29.7% | $52.6M | 2025-04-29 | 0001425292-25-000015 |
| 2024Q4 | $139.6M | 23.8% | $49.8M | 2025-02-19 | 0001425292-25-000004 |
| 2024Q3 | $125.2M | 14.7% | $35.7M | 2024-10-29 | 0001425292-24-000021 |
| 2024Q2 | $132.9M | 30.0% | $53.6M | 2024-07-30 | 0001425292-24-000012 |
| 2024Q1 | $127.7M | 21.4% | $39.4M | 2024-04-30 | 0001425292-24-000008 |
| 2023Q4 | $141.6M | 17.3% | $37.8M | 2024-02-21 | 0001425292-24-000004 |
| 2023Q3 | $130.6M | 13.0% | $32.3M | 2023-10-31 | 0001425292-23-000029 |
| 2023Q2 | $183.0M | 40.5% | $86.5M | 2023-08-01 | 0001425292-23-000023 |
| 2023Q1 | $226.3M | 51.7% | $124.6M | 2023-05-02 | 0001425292-23-000019 |
| 2022Q4 | $212.2M | 52.0% | $121.3M | 2023-02-22 | 0001425292-23-000008 |
| 2022Q3 | $156.5M | -2.5% | $10.2M | 2022-11-01 | 0001425292-22-000033 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| nitrogen_spread primaria (a priori) | 73% | 37 | 0.0038 |
| nitrogen_ppi | 81% | 37 | 0.0001 |
| natgas | 43% | 37 | 0.838 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir
ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica nitrogen_spread y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres
| Modelo (misma ventana de test) | Acierto direccional | n |
|---|---|---|
| Regla de signo (sin parámetros) | 72% | 25 |
| OLS sobre el commodity | 68% | 25 |
| OLS + momentum de coste | 72% | 25 |
| Signo + momentum de coste mejor | 76% | 25 |
ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
45 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-18, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-19.
- nuevoOur operations, and nitrogen fertilizer and its feedstock prices, are cyclical and highly volatile, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Nitrogen fertilizer products and our business face intense competition.
- The dynamic pricing environment for nitrogen fertilizer products, as well as any changes to government policy regarding fertilizer pricing in response thereto, could negatively affect our results of operations.
- Our business is geographically concentrated and is therefore subject to regional economic downturns and seasonal variations for us or our customers, which may affect our production levels and inventory and working capital levels.
- Our sales volumes depend on significant customers, and the loss of several significant customers may have a material adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Any decline in U.S. agricultural production or limitations on the use of nitrogen fertilizer for agricultural purposes could have a material adverse effect on the sales of nitrogen fertilizer, and on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Compliance with and changes in environmental laws, rules and regulations, including those related to climate change, could result in increased operating costs and capital expenditures and adversely affect our performance.
- Public health crises have had, and may continue to have, adverse impacts on our business, financial condition, results of operations and liquidity.
- We are subject to cybersecurity risks and may experience cyber incidents resulting in disruption or harm to our businesses
- Inflation could have adverse effects on our results of operations.
- The acquisition and expansion strategy of our business involves significant risks that could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- Internally generated cash flows and other sources of liquidity may not be adequate for our capital needs.
- Any interruption or change in the supply of feedstocks to our Facilities could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.
- If licensed technology were no longer available or able to be licensed economically or at all, our business may be adversely affected.
- Our operations are dependent on third-party suppliers, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
- We rely on third-party providers of transportation services, which subjects us to risks and uncertainties beyond our control and that may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and ability to make distributions.
- Any liability for accidents involving ammonia or other products we produce or transport that cause severe damage to property or injury to the environment and human health could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and ability to make cash distributions.
- We could incur significant costs in cleaning up contamination.
- We may be unable to obtain or renew permits or approvals necessary for our operations, which could inhibit our ability to do business.
- Acts of terror or sabotage, threats of war, armed conflict or war or trade wars may have an adverse impact on our business, our future results of operations and our overall financial performance.
- Adverse weather conditions or other unforeseen developments could damage our Facilities or logistics assets and impair our ability to produce and deliver our nitrogen fertilizer products.
- Our Facilities face significant risks due to physical damage hazards, environmental liability risk exposure, and unplanned or emergency partial or total facility shutdowns, which could cause property damage or injuries and a material decline in production which are not fully insured.
- We are subject to strict laws and regulations regarding employee and process safety, and failure to comply with these laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and profitability.
- Our business may suffer due to the departure of any of our key senior executives or other key employees, and a shortage of skilled labor may make it difficult for us to maintain labor productivity.
- A portion of our workforce is unionized, and we are subject to the risk of labor disputes, slowdowns or strikes, which may disrupt our business and increase our costs.
… 20 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001425292-26-000011