CVR PARTNERS, LP

UANFertilizante nitrogenado · UAN y amoniacoactualizado 2026-08-03
Precio
$125.57
IV prob-weighted
$124.43
Gap
-1%
TTM EBITDA≈
$275.4M
Net debt
$432.3M
Margen (percentil hist.)
87%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 4.04–7.55× EV/EBITDA (mediana 6.77×, 1255 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 46.1%, percentil 87% de su historia (38 trimestres): zona de techo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata nitrogen_spread anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 73% (n=37, p=0.0038): señal operativa utilizable. [sector_nowcast.json]
hallazgo posthocPatas NO primarias que alcanzan significancia: nitrogen_ppi 81% (n=37, p=0.0001). Es un hallazgo POST-HOC: no era la hipótesis registrada de antemano y está sujeto a testeo múltiple. Requiere confirmación fuera de muestra. [sector_nowcast.legs]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -26 bps alineados a 20d (hit 44%, n=36), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -1%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
costeEl commodity solo explica el 17% de la varianza del cambio de margen; el 83% restante es coste unitario, mix y volumen (AR1 del residuo -0.474: revierte). [margin_decomposition.json]
costeModelos probados sobre la misma ventana: regla de signo 72%, OLS commodity 68%, OLS+coste 72%, signo+coste 76%. Gana signo+coste: añadir maquinaria de coste no mejora el baseline sin parámetros. [margin_decomposition.json]
riesgosLa empresa declara 45 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-02-18, 1 nuevos frente al de 2025-02-19. Concentracion: operacional 22, coste insumos 10, financiero 9. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 16 de 38)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q2$202.2M46.1%$107.0M2026-07-290001425292-26-000031
2026Q1$180.0M37.5%$77.6M2026-04-290001425292-26-000022
2025Q4$131.1M4.4%$20.1M2026-02-180001425292-26-000011
2025Q3$163.5M37.0%$70.6M2025-10-300001425292-25-000030
2025Q2$168.6M32.4%$67.2M2025-07-310001425292-25-000022
2025Q1$142.9M29.7%$52.6M2025-04-290001425292-25-000015
2024Q4$139.6M23.8%$49.8M2025-02-190001425292-25-000004
2024Q3$125.2M14.7%$35.7M2024-10-290001425292-24-000021
2024Q2$132.9M30.0%$53.6M2024-07-300001425292-24-000012
2024Q1$127.7M21.4%$39.4M2024-04-300001425292-24-000008
2023Q4$141.6M17.3%$37.8M2024-02-210001425292-24-000004
2023Q3$130.6M13.0%$32.3M2023-10-310001425292-23-000029
2023Q2$183.0M40.5%$86.5M2023-08-010001425292-23-000023
2023Q1$226.3M51.7%$124.6M2023-05-020001425292-23-000019
2022Q4$212.2M52.0%$121.3M2023-02-220001425292-23-000008
2022Q3$156.5M-2.5%$10.2M2022-11-010001425292-22-000033

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen bruto vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
nitrogen_spread primaria (a priori)73%370.0038
nitrogen_ppi81%370.0001
natgas43%370.838

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

El eslabón coste: por qué el margen no se deja predecir

ΔMargen bruto descompuesto en la parte que explica nitrogen_spread y el residuo (coste unitario, mix y volumen), walk-forward sobre 37 trimestres

R² del commodity
17%
Residuo (coste+mix+volumen)
83%
AR(1) del residuo
-0.47
Modelo (misma ventana de test)Acierto direccionaln
Regla de signo (sin parámetros)72%25
OLS sobre el commodity68%25
OLS + momentum de coste72%25
Signo + momentum de coste mejor76%25

ΔGM = β·Δlog(pata) + ε con β y φ(AR1 de ε) reestimados walk-forward solo con trimestres ya publicados; el residuo agrupa coste unitario, mix y volumen

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+17 bps
hit 51% · n=37
5d tras filing
-30 bps
hit 44% · n=36
20d tras filing
-26 bps
hit 44% · n=36

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

45 factores del 10-K de 2026-02-18, verbatim del documento. 1 son nuevos frente al de 2025-02-19.

operacional 22coste insumos 10financiero 9regulatorio 9precio commodity 3demanda competencia 3laboral 3geopolitico 2clima agua 2ciberseguridad 1
  • nuevoOur operations, and nitrogen fertilizer and its feedstock prices, are cyclical and highly volatile, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
  • Nitrogen fertilizer products and our business face intense competition.
  • The dynamic pricing environment for nitrogen fertilizer products, as well as any changes to government policy regarding fertilizer pricing in response thereto, could negatively affect our results of operations.
  • Our business is geographically concentrated and is therefore subject to regional economic downturns and seasonal variations for us or our customers, which may affect our production levels and inventory and working capital levels.
  • Our sales volumes depend on significant customers, and the loss of several significant customers may have a material adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
  • Any decline in U.S. agricultural production or limitations on the use of nitrogen fertilizer for agricultural purposes could have a material adverse effect on the sales of nitrogen fertilizer, and on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
  • Compliance with and changes in environmental laws, rules and regulations, including those related to climate change, could result in increased operating costs and capital expenditures and adversely affect our performance.
  • Public health crises have had, and may continue to have, adverse impacts on our business, financial condition, results of operations and liquidity.
  • We are subject to cybersecurity risks and may experience cyber incidents resulting in disruption or harm to our businesses
  • Inflation could have adverse effects on our results of operations.
  • The acquisition and expansion strategy of our business involves significant risks that could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
  • Internally generated cash flows and other sources of liquidity may not be adequate for our capital needs.
  • Any interruption or change in the supply of feedstocks to our Facilities could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.
  • If licensed technology were no longer available or able to be licensed economically or at all, our business may be adversely affected.
  • Our operations are dependent on third-party suppliers, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.
  • We rely on third-party providers of transportation services, which subjects us to risks and uncertainties beyond our control and that may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and ability to make distributions.
  • Any liability for accidents involving ammonia or other products we produce or transport that cause severe damage to property or injury to the environment and human health could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and ability to make cash distributions.
  • We could incur significant costs in cleaning up contamination.
  • We may be unable to obtain or renew permits or approvals necessary for our operations, which could inhibit our ability to do business.
  • Acts of terror or sabotage, threats of war, armed conflict or war or trade wars may have an adverse impact on our business, our future results of operations and our overall financial performance.
  • Adverse weather conditions or other unforeseen developments could damage our Facilities or logistics assets and impair our ability to produce and deliver our nitrogen fertilizer products.
  • Our Facilities face significant risks due to physical damage hazards, environmental liability risk exposure, and unplanned or emergency partial or total facility shutdowns, which could cause property damage or injuries and a material decline in production which are not fully insured.
  • We are subject to strict laws and regulations regarding employee and process safety, and failure to comply with these laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and profitability.
  • Our business may suffer due to the departure of any of our key senior executives or other key employees, and a shortage of skilled labor may make it difficult for us to maintain labor productivity.
  • A portion of our workforce is unionized, and we are subject to the risk of labor disputes, slowdowns or strikes, which may disrupt our business and increase our costs.

20 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001425292-26-000011

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)