Worthington Steel, Inc.

WSProcesado · laminado planoactualizado 2026-07-28
Precio
$38.13
IV prob-weighted
$35.55
Gap
-7%
TTM EBITDA≈
$236.9M
Net debt
$-31.3M
Margen (percentil hist.)
21%
Twin genérico: ebitda_approx_xbrl (no Adjusted de press releases) · multiplos sectoriales NO optimizados · sin extraccion MD&A todavia (profundizacion pendiente). La señal del gap está INVERTIDA en cíclicas según el backtest de ALTO — no usar como target.

Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)

9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado

valoracionEl mercado ha valorado este negocio a 5.97–8.6× EV/EBITDA (mediana 6.78×, 574 días de múltiplo implícito propio, expanding sin look-ahead). [twin_manifest.intrinsic.multiples]
cicloMargen bruto actual 9.9%, percentil 21% de su historia (14 trimestres): zona de suelo de ciclo. [truth_set_quarterly.gross_margin]
driversLa pata steel_ppi anticipa la DIRECCIÓN del margen con acierto 70% (n=10, p=0.1719): señal débil — hedging/contratos absorben el spot. [sector_nowcast.json]
nowcastLlamada actual (a 2026-07-29): margen al alza vs 2025Q3 (+5.0% de la pata). [sector_nowcast.current_call]
realizedPrecio realizado (avg_selling_price_usd_ton) vs spot: corr niveles 0.837, Δ 0.68, captura β 1.409 (n=9): el spot llega al P&L de forma parcial y con ruido trimestral — mismo cuello de botella que ALTO. [realized_model.json]
no hacerEventos: señal pre-filing → -21 bps alineados a 20d (hit 54%, n=13), pooled de la cadena NO significativo (t=1.5). La señal predice márgenes, no retornos: no operar el filing. [event_study.json]
no hacerGap precio/IV actual -7%: señal INVERTIDA en cíclicas (backtest ALTO corr −0.32) — es contexto de dónde está el ciclo, no un target de compra. [twin_manifest.intrinsic.last_gap]
evidencia21/21 métricas operativas del MD&A con cita textual verificada (9 trimestres) — pendiente de auditoría de capa 2. [mdna_operational.csv]
riesgosLa empresa declara 70 factores de riesgo en su 10-K de 2026-07-30, 14 nuevos frente al de 2025-07-29. Concentracion: operacional 27, demanda competencia 14, coste insumos 13. [risk_factors.json]

Precio vs valor (point-in-time)

¿Dónde cotiza el precio frente al rango de valor del modelo? · USD/acción · diario (submuestreo semanal)
fuente: intrinsic_daily.csv

Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.

Trimestres (últimos 14 de 14)

Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato

TrimestreRevenueGM%EBITDA≈PublicadoAccession
2026Q1$769.8M9.9%n/d2026-04-090001968487-26-000008
2025Q4$871.9M10.7%n/d2026-01-080001193125-26-007694
2025Q3$872.9M13.2%$68.6M2025-10-100001193125-25-237107
2025Q2$832.9M15.3%$83.3M2025-07-290000950170-25-099742
2025Q1$687.4M11.8%$25.4M2025-04-110000950170-25-053275
2024Q4$739.0M10.8%n/d2025-01-130000950170-25-004864
2024Q3$834.0M12.0%$59.6M2024-10-150000950170-24-114688
2024Q2$911.0M14.4%$83.4M2024-08-020000950170-24-090031
2024Q1$805.8M14.9%$82.2M2024-04-120000950170-24-043883
2023Q4$808.0M7.4%$7.6M2024-01-160000950170-24-004719
2023Q3$905.8M14.2%$86.6M2024-10-150000950170-24-114688
2023Q2$884.0M17.0%$107.0M2024-08-020000950170-24-090031
2023Q1$780.7M8.1%$26.5M2024-04-120000950170-24-043883
2022Q4$868.4M4.0%$-2.1M2024-01-160000950170-24-004719

Nowcast direccional sectorial

Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)

Llamada actual (vs 2025Q3): margen ▲ sube steel_ppi 5.0% QTD · a 2026-07-29

PataAcierto direccionalnp (1 cola)
steel_ppi primaria (a priori)70%100.1719
metal_spread40%100.8281

dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO

Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)

Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)

TrimestreMétricaValorCita textualEstado
2025Q3metal_margin_usd_ton124.5Direct spreads, up $23.0 million, were impacted by a $22.2 million favorable change from an estimated $16.6 million inventory holding loss in the prior year quarter to an estimated $5.6 million inventrechazado
2025Q1tons_shipped_k881410Direct tons sold decreased 7% and toll tons sold decreased 15% in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 compared to the prior year quarter.rechazado
2025Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton690Steel prices declined during the first quarter of fiscal 2025, but largely stabilized during the second quarter of fiscal 2025.rechazado
2024Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton690Net sales totaled $834.0 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, down $71.8 million, compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2024. The decrease was primarily due to a 6% decrease in direct sellinrechazado
2025Q1metal_margin_usd_ton19.3direct spreads were impacted by an estimated inventory loss of $1.2 million as compared to an estimated $19.3 million inventory holding gain in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.auditado ✓
2025Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton834.5Net sales totaled $3,093.3 million in fiscal 2025, down $337.3 million compared to fiscal 2024, primarily due to lower direct selling prices and unfavorable volumes. Direct selling prices were down aprechazado
2025Q4tons_shipped_k817524Direct volumes increased by 4%, with the increase driven equally between the legacy business and the addition of Sitem Group.rechazado
2025Q3avg_selling_price_usd_ton950.5The increase was driven primarily by the inclusion of the Sitem Group, higher direct volumes, and to a lesser extent, slightly higher average direct selling prices.rechazado
2024Q3tons_shipped_k994Volume (tons) 994,093 1,023,545 (29,452 )rechazado
2024Q4tons_shipped_k936Net sales totaled $739.0 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, down $69.0 million compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2024.rechazado
2024Q1metal_margin_usd_ton120.1Gross margin increased $56.9 million over the prior year quarter to $120.1 million, due primarily to favorable direct spreads and higher volume.auditado ✓
2023Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton782.5Net sales totaled $808.0 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2024, down $60.4 million, compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2023, primarily due to lower average selling pricesrechazado
2025Q2tons_shipped_k3793.752Overall volume decreased 213,621 tons, or 5% from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2025. Direct tons sold decreased 4%, while toll tons sold decreased 7% compared to fiscal 2024.rechazado
2025Q3tons_shipped_k928866Volume (tons) 928,866 994,093 (65,227 )auditado ✓
2024Q2scrap_cost_usd_ton0The expected price of scrap compared to the price of the steel raw material is factored into pricing. Generally, as the price of steel increases, the price of scrap increases by a similar amount.rechazado
2023Q4metal_margin_usd_ton60200000Gross margin increased $25.7 million over the prior year quarter to $60.2 millionrechazado
2024Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton690The price declines over the first and second quarters of fiscal 2025 compared to the end of fiscal 2024 resulted in estimated inventory holding losses of $13.4 million.rechazado
2025Q4avg_selling_price_usd_ton857The average price of HRC for fiscal 2026 remains higher than the same period of fiscal 2025.rechazado
2025Q4metal_margin_usd_ton9.9Gross margin in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 was $76.1 million, a decrease of $5.1 million compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2025.rechazado
2024Q2avg_selling_price_usd_ton879Net sales totaled $3,430.6 million in fiscal 2024, down $177.1 million compared to fiscal 2023. While volume increased 52,798 tons, or 1.3% from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2024, net sales decreased primarirechazado
2024Q1avg_selling_price_usd_ton879Net sales totaled $805.8 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2024, up $25.1 million, compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2023, primarily due to higher average selling prices and, to a lesser exrechazado

Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)

avg_selling_price_usd_ton (MD&A verificado) vs steel_ppi — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado

Corr. niveles
0.84
Corr. Δ trimestral
0.68
β captura Δ%spot→Δ%real
1.41
n pares
9

Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)

Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.

1d tras filing
+60 bps
hit 62% · n=13
5d tras filing
-72 bps
hit 46% · n=13
20d tras filing
-21 bps
hit 54% · n=13

Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)

70 factores del 10-K de 2026-07-30, verbatim del documento. 14 son nuevos frente al de 2025-07-29.

operacional 27demanda competencia 14coste insumos 13financiero 12regulatorio 11precio commodity 7laboral 6geopolitico 4clima agua 2ciberseguridad 2
  • nuevoRisks Related to Owning Our Common Shares
  • Our net sales are heavily concentrated in the automotive and construction end markets, and a decline in those end markets may have an adverse impact on our results of operations and cash flows.
  • Concern about climate change might result in new legal and regulatory requirements to reduce or mitigate the effects of climate change.
  • Economic, political and other risks associated with foreign operations could adversely affect our financial results.
  • The principal shareholder of Worthington Steel may have the ability to exert significant influence in matters requiring a shareholder vote and could delay, deter or prevent a change in control of Worthington Steel.
  • nuevoRestrictions on our interactions with Kloeckner may delay or limit the implementation of our integration strategy and could adversely impact our results of operations.
  • The price of our common shares has fluctuated significantly and may continue to fluctuate significantly.
  • Certain provisions in our amended and restated articles of incorporation and amended and restated code of regulations, and of Ohio law, may prevent or delay an acquisition of us, which could decrease the trading price of our common shares.
  • Volatility in the U.S. and worldwide capital and credit markets could negatively impact our end markets and result in reduced demand for our products, increased credit and collection risks and other adverse effects on our business.
  • Changes to global data privacy laws and cross-border transfer requirements could adversely affect our business and operations.
  • f Financial Condition and Results of Operations
  • nuevoEconomic or Industry Downturns and Weakness
  • Financial difficulties and bankruptcy filings by our customers could have an adverse impact on our business
  • Our operating results may be adversely affected by continued volatility in steel prices.
  • Our operating results may be affected by fluctuations in raw material prices and our ability to pass on increases in raw material costs to our customers.
  • The costs of manufacturing our products and/or our ability to meet our customers’ demands could be negatively impacted if we experience interruptions in deliveries of needed raw materials or supplies.
  • nuevoExcess Capacity and Over-Production by Foreign Steel Producers or Decreases in Tariffs
  • There also has been stakeholder focus, including by governmental authorities, investors, customers, media and nongovernmental organizations, on environmental sustainability matters, such as climate change, the reduction of greenhouse gases and water consumption.
  • Developing and acting on initiatives within the scope of social and environmental sustainability, and collecting, measuring and reporting environmental sustainability-related information and metrics can be costly, difficult and time consuming and is subject to evolving reporting standards.
  • Our business could be harmed if we fail to maintain proper inventory levels.
  • The loss of significant volume from our key customers could adversely affect us.
  • Many of our key end markets, such as automotive and construction, are cyclical in nature.
  • We are unable to predict the duration of the current economic conditions or the magnitude or timing of changes in economic activities, which could adversely affect our customers and, in turn, our business.
  • Significant reductions in sales to any of the Detroit Three automakers, or to our automotive-related customers in general, could have a negative impact on our business.
  • Any future United Auto Workers (“UAW”) strikes against the Detroit Three automakers could have material adverse effects on our business, financial position, results of operations and cash flows.

45 más en risk_factors.json

encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001968487-26-000026

Profundización pendiente (vs cockpit de ALTO)

Gap bridge driver a driver: sin datos
Requiere un modelo de drivers propio de la empresa, como el que ALTO tiene con el crush del etanol.
se necesita: modelo operativo por empresa (volumen × precio × coste unitario)