Worthington Steel, Inc.
WSProcesado · laminado planoactualizado 2026-07-28Tesis (determinista — solo hechos computados)
9 lecturas generadas desde artefactos point-in-time, a 2026-08-05; ningún dato inventado
Precio vs valor (point-in-time)
Conclusión: el backtest muestra que “precio por debajo del IV” ha sido señal de techo de ciclo en esta cíclica (corr −0.32 a 60d) — leer este gráfico como semáforo de compra rompe la tesis.
Trimestres (últimos 14 de 14)
Truth set XBRL con fecha de primera publicación y accession por dato
| Trimestre | Revenue | GM% | EBITDA≈ | Publicado | Accession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $769.8M | 9.9% | n/d | 2026-04-09 | 0001968487-26-000008 |
| 2025Q4 | $871.9M | 10.7% | n/d | 2026-01-08 | 0001193125-26-007694 |
| 2025Q3 | $872.9M | 13.2% | $68.6M | 2025-10-10 | 0001193125-25-237107 |
| 2025Q2 | $832.9M | 15.3% | $83.3M | 2025-07-29 | 0000950170-25-099742 |
| 2025Q1 | $687.4M | 11.8% | $25.4M | 2025-04-11 | 0000950170-25-053275 |
| 2024Q4 | $739.0M | 10.8% | n/d | 2025-01-13 | 0000950170-25-004864 |
| 2024Q3 | $834.0M | 12.0% | $59.6M | 2024-10-15 | 0000950170-24-114688 |
| 2024Q2 | $911.0M | 14.4% | $83.4M | 2024-08-02 | 0000950170-24-090031 |
| 2024Q1 | $805.8M | 14.9% | $82.2M | 2024-04-12 | 0000950170-24-043883 |
| 2023Q4 | $808.0M | 7.4% | $7.6M | 2024-01-16 | 0000950170-24-004719 |
| 2023Q3 | $905.8M | 14.2% | $86.6M | 2024-10-15 | 0000950170-24-114688 |
| 2023Q2 | $884.0M | 17.0% | $107.0M | 2024-08-02 | 0000950170-24-090031 |
| 2023Q1 | $780.7M | 8.1% | $26.5M | 2024-04-12 | 0000950170-24-043883 |
| 2022Q4 | $868.4M | 4.0% | $-2.1M | 2024-01-16 | 0000950170-24-004719 |
Nowcast direccional sectorial
Dirección del margen EBITDA≈ vs pata de commodity (point-in-time, réplica del M10 de ALTO)
Llamada actual (vs 2025Q3): margen ▲ sube — steel_ppi 5.0% QTD · a 2026-07-29
| Pata | Acierto direccional | n | p (1 cola) |
|---|---|---|---|
| steel_ppi primaria (a priori) | 70% | 10 | 0.1719 |
| metal_spread | 40% | 10 | 0.8281 |
dirección del promedio trimestral de la pata (solo obs publicadas antes del filing, lag 14d mes+1) vs dirección del cambio de margen — regla de signo sin parámetros, réplica del M10 de ALTO
Métricas operativas del MD&A (extracción auditada)
Qwen3-4B local + verificación determinista de citas (rapidfuzz ≥85)
| Trimestre | Métrica | Valor | Cita textual | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q3 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 124.5 | “Direct spreads, up $23.0 million, were impacted by a $22.2 million favorable change from an estimated $16.6 million inventory holding loss in the prior year quarter to an estimated $5.6 million invent” | rechazado |
| 2025Q1 | tons_shipped_k | 881410 | “Direct tons sold decreased 7% and toll tons sold decreased 15% in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 compared to the prior year quarter.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 690 | “Steel prices declined during the first quarter of fiscal 2025, but largely stabilized during the second quarter of fiscal 2025.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 690 | “Net sales totaled $834.0 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, down $71.8 million, compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2024. The decrease was primarily due to a 6% decrease in direct sellin” | rechazado |
| 2025Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 19.3 | “direct spreads were impacted by an estimated inventory loss of $1.2 million as compared to an estimated $19.3 million inventory holding gain in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2025Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 834.5 | “Net sales totaled $3,093.3 million in fiscal 2025, down $337.3 million compared to fiscal 2024, primarily due to lower direct selling prices and unfavorable volumes. Direct selling prices were down ap” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 817524 | “Direct volumes increased by 4%, with the increase driven equally between the legacy business and the addition of Sitem Group.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q3 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 950.5 | “The increase was driven primarily by the inclusion of the Sitem Group, higher direct volumes, and to a lesser extent, slightly higher average direct selling prices.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 994 | “Volume (tons) 994,093 1,023,545 (29,452 )” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | tons_shipped_k | 936 | “Net sales totaled $739.0 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, down $69.0 million compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2024.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q1 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 120.1 | “Gross margin increased $56.9 million over the prior year quarter to $120.1 million, due primarily to favorable direct spreads and higher volume.” | auditado ✓ |
| 2023Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 782.5 | “Net sales totaled $808.0 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2024, down $60.4 million, compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2023, primarily due to lower average selling prices” | rechazado |
| 2025Q2 | tons_shipped_k | 3793.752 | “Overall volume decreased 213,621 tons, or 5% from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2025. Direct tons sold decreased 4%, while toll tons sold decreased 7% compared to fiscal 2024.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q3 | tons_shipped_k | 928866 | “Volume (tons) 928,866 994,093 (65,227 )” | auditado ✓ |
| 2024Q2 | scrap_cost_usd_ton | 0 | “The expected price of scrap compared to the price of the steel raw material is factored into pricing. Generally, as the price of steel increases, the price of scrap increases by a similar amount.” | rechazado |
| 2023Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 60200000 | “Gross margin increased $25.7 million over the prior year quarter to $60.2 million” | rechazado |
| 2024Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 690 | “The price declines over the first and second quarters of fiscal 2025 compared to the end of fiscal 2024 resulted in estimated inventory holding losses of $13.4 million.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 857 | “The average price of HRC for fiscal 2026 remains higher than the same period of fiscal 2025.” | rechazado |
| 2025Q4 | metal_margin_usd_ton | 9.9 | “Gross margin in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 was $76.1 million, a decrease of $5.1 million compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2025.” | rechazado |
| 2024Q2 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 879 | “Net sales totaled $3,430.6 million in fiscal 2024, down $177.1 million compared to fiscal 2023. While volume increased 52,798 tons, or 1.3% from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2024, net sales decreased primari” | rechazado |
| 2024Q1 | avg_selling_price_usd_ton | 879 | “Net sales totaled $805.8 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2024, up $25.1 million, compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2023, primarily due to higher average selling prices and, to a lesser ex” | rechazado |
Realized vs spot (¿cuánto mercado llega al P&L?)
avg_selling_price_usd_ton (MD&A verificado) vs steel_ppi — el cuello de botella que ALTO identificó en el hedging/mapeo realizado
Backtest de eventos (señal → precio)
Long/short según la señal sectorial pre-filing, sin costes. El pooled de la cadena NO es significativo (t=1.5 a 20d) — igual que ALTO: la señal predice márgenes, no retornos.
Riesgos declarados (Item 1A)
70 factores del 10-K de 2026-07-30, verbatim del documento. 14 son nuevos frente al de 2025-07-29.
- nuevoRisks Related to Owning Our Common Shares
- Our net sales are heavily concentrated in the automotive and construction end markets, and a decline in those end markets may have an adverse impact on our results of operations and cash flows.
- Concern about climate change might result in new legal and regulatory requirements to reduce or mitigate the effects of climate change.
- Economic, political and other risks associated with foreign operations could adversely affect our financial results.
- The principal shareholder of Worthington Steel may have the ability to exert significant influence in matters requiring a shareholder vote and could delay, deter or prevent a change in control of Worthington Steel.
- nuevoRestrictions on our interactions with Kloeckner may delay or limit the implementation of our integration strategy and could adversely impact our results of operations.
- The price of our common shares has fluctuated significantly and may continue to fluctuate significantly.
- Certain provisions in our amended and restated articles of incorporation and amended and restated code of regulations, and of Ohio law, may prevent or delay an acquisition of us, which could decrease the trading price of our common shares.
- Volatility in the U.S. and worldwide capital and credit markets could negatively impact our end markets and result in reduced demand for our products, increased credit and collection risks and other adverse effects on our business.
- Changes to global data privacy laws and cross-border transfer requirements could adversely affect our business and operations.
- f Financial Condition and Results of Operations
- nuevoEconomic or Industry Downturns and Weakness
- Financial difficulties and bankruptcy filings by our customers could have an adverse impact on our business
- Our operating results may be adversely affected by continued volatility in steel prices.
- Our operating results may be affected by fluctuations in raw material prices and our ability to pass on increases in raw material costs to our customers.
- The costs of manufacturing our products and/or our ability to meet our customers’ demands could be negatively impacted if we experience interruptions in deliveries of needed raw materials or supplies.
- nuevoExcess Capacity and Over-Production by Foreign Steel Producers or Decreases in Tariffs
- There also has been stakeholder focus, including by governmental authorities, investors, customers, media and nongovernmental organizations, on environmental sustainability matters, such as climate change, the reduction of greenhouse gases and water consumption.
- Developing and acting on initiatives within the scope of social and environmental sustainability, and collecting, measuring and reporting environmental sustainability-related information and metrics can be costly, difficult and time consuming and is subject to evolving reporting standards.
- Our business could be harmed if we fail to maintain proper inventory levels.
- The loss of significant volume from our key customers could adversely affect us.
- Many of our key end markets, such as automotive and construction, are cyclical in nature.
- We are unable to predict the duration of the current economic conditions or the magnitude or timing of changes in economic activities, which could adversely affect our customers and, in turn, our business.
- Significant reductions in sales to any of the Detroit Three automakers, or to our automotive-related customers in general, could have a negative impact on our business.
- Any future United Auto Workers (“UAW”) strikes against the Detroit Three automakers could have material adverse effects on our business, financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
… 45 más en risk_factors.json
encabezados en negrita/cursiva del HTML que aparecen dentro del Item 1A y van seguidos de ≥300 caracteres de cuerpo (así se descartan los encabezados de grupo); categorías por mapa fijo de palabras clave; 'nuevo' = ausente del 10-K anterior. Sin LLM. Caveat: algún encabezado de grupo puede sobrevivir si su primer subtítulo no venía resaltado en el HTML. · accession 0001968487-26-000026